Competitive Window- 24' roster

[waroriole]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We will see how they end the season but as of right now, there is zero reason to be upset going into the season with a platoon of Mounty/OHearn as your first baseman.

Mayo is going to be ready sometime soon, perhaps even by OD but chances are, he gets more AAA time next year and then you go from there.

You add 2 starters this offseason. You add 1-2 more bullpen pitchers from outside the org.

Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins and Hays is your OF next year.

2 biggest roster questions are, do you trade Santander and when do you bring up Holliday?

It’s suboptimal to have to rely on a platoon at 1B. Now we have two guys who can’t play the field and can only hit one type of pitching. Next year, I don’t see OHearn being anything more than what we thought he’d be at the beginning of this year. Also, hoping the lessons on Mountcastle have been learned and the leash is much shorter next year when the inevitable struggles come. 

[brucewayne]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s suboptimal to have to rely on a platoon at 1B. Now we have two guys who can’t play the field and can only hit one type of pitching. Next year, I don’t see OHearn being anything more than what we thought he’d be at the beginning of this year. Also, hoping the lessons on Mountcastle have been learned and the leash is much shorter next year when the inevitable struggles come. 

 

Ryan O'Hearn is raking!

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s suboptimal to have to rely on a platoon at 1B. Now we have two guys who can’t play the field and can only hit one type of pitching. Next year, I don’t see OHearn being anything more than what we thought he’d be at the beginning of this year. Also, hoping the lessons on Mountcastle have been learned and the leash is much shorter next year when the inevitable struggles come. 

There is nothing wrong with a platoon. OHearn actually has a +2 OAA.

I want to see how OHearn ends the season. He has struggled recently. If that continues and he fizzles out,  I’m not sure I see a place for him on the team next year.

However, if he ends the year well, a platoon is fine. 
 

The Os are currently getting middle of the pack production from first base and that is with Urias playing over there a few games, Mounty playing there when he had his issues and no OHearn early.

They are top 10 in slugging but the OBP sucks and that is dragging down some of the numbers towards the middle of the pack.

It will cost very little money and it is not a bad “hold down the fort” option until Mayo comes up.

Still, there is a lot of season left to see how Mayo, Mountcastle and OHearn end it and how those players end the year could determine the course of action for 2024.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

 

Ryan O'Hearn is raking!

He has a 721 OPs in August, with only 1 homer and 3 doubles.

He isn’t currently raking. He was raking for most of the year heading into this month.

If this just a temporary slump or is this him starting to revert back to the player he has been his whole career? 

[sportsfan8703]

Santander, McKenna, rule 5 draft, and MILB deals, will be our big moves. Nothing sexy. We’re built for 162 much like how the Rays are. If we need a piece, then we’ll make a move at the deadline.

Means - Gibson

Ortiz - Frazier

Holliday call up 8/31?

Kjerstad call up 6/15?

DL Hall any role?

Jorge Lopez reunion

Adley or Gunnar Extensions?

The big offseason question for us is Santander. Do we trade him for the best deal, or do we just let him play out his final year and QO him?  Cowser would be his replacement with Kjerstad in the mix post Mid June. O’Hearn too. The goal would be to be the best team come September and not March. 

I really only see Elias picking up depth pieces and not giving out a guaranteed contract. I could see Jorge Lopez back on a milb deal. We’re probably going to lose Lester, Cameron, Diaz to FA. 

McKenna is also out of options for next year. Cameron already is. Fabian is struggling in Bowie. Haskin has been hurt in AAA. We could see Elias had Cameron to the 40 man and let Cameron and McKenna battle it out in ST for backup CF. I don’t think we’ll do that. It’s probably McKenna’s job until Haskin is ready. Cowser and Hays if there is an injury.

Rule 5 draft. I don’t think we have a crunch, and I do expect us to draft an arm. The 2020 draft was only 5 rounds so this should be a really thin draft class. It’s a free shot to pick a Sigbot guy. Also, to take a pitcher they liked from the 2019 draft. They seem to get one of those in every deal we make. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Santander, McKenna, rule 5 draft, and MILB deals, will be our big moves. Nothing sexy. We’re built for 162 much like how the Rays are. If we need a piece, then we’ll make a move at the deadline.

Means - Gibson

Ortiz - Frazier

Holliday call up 8/31?

Kjerstad call up 6/15?

DL Hall any role?

Jorge Lopez reunion

Adley or Gunnar Extensions?

The big offseason question for us is Santander. Do we trade him for the best deal, or do we just let him play out his final year and QO him?  Cowser would be his replacement with Kjerstad in the mix post Mid June. O’Hearn too. The goal would be to be the best team come September and not March. 

I really only see Elias picking up depth pieces and not giving out a guaranteed contract. I could see Jorge Lopez back on a milb deal. We’re probably going to lose Lester, Cameron, Diaz to FA. 

McKenna is also out of options for next year. Cameron already is. Fabian is struggling in Bowie. Haskin has been hurt in AAA. We could see Elias had Cameron to the 40 man and let Cameron and McKenna battle it out in ST for backup CF. I don’t think we’ll do that. It’s probably McKenna’s job until Haskin is ready. Cowser and Hays if there is an injury.

Rule 5 draft. I don’t think we have a crunch, and I do expect us to draft an arm. The 2020 draft was only 5 rounds so this should be a really thin draft class. It’s a free shot to pick a Sigbot guy. Also, to take a pitcher they liked from the 2019 draft. They seem to get one of those in every deal we make. 

Unless he gets hurt, Holliday will be up way before 8/31.

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Unless he gets hurt, Holliday will be up way before 8/31.

I hope so. I’ve been hoping for this 8/31. 

We’re going to have some crazy depth next year in AAA. 

SP - Hall, Povich, McDermott, Ambruester

RP - Vespi, Khreibel, Gilaspie, Baker, Tate?

C - Handley

1B - Mayo

2B - Norby

SS - Holliday

3B - Mayo

COF - Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby

CF - Haskin

Maybe some of Lester, Diaz, and Cameron Re-sign milb deals. Zimmerman, Akin, and Voth are out of options. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hope so. I’ve been hoping for this 8/31. 

We’re going to have some crazy depth next year in AAA. 

SP - Hall, Povich, McDermott, Ambruester

RP - Vespi, Khreibel, Gilaspie, Baker, Tate?

C - Handley

1B - Mayo

2B - Norby

SS - Holliday

3B - Mayo

COF - Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby

CF - Haskin

Maybe some of Lester, Diaz, and Cameron Re-sign milb deals. Zimmerman, Akin, and Voth are out of options. 

A lot of those guys won’t be in AAA and some probably not even with the org.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, brucewayne said:

Mullins is a great piece for the 2023, 2024 and perhaps 2025 team. But I see him as a peaking player who is injury prone. I don't worry about players in their early 30s. It's 33+ that you want worry about. Mullins injury history changes that though. The idea of paying big money to a guy who has an injury history with his legs is enough to put me off any extension. 

Not every player ages the same.  Some guys play well into their mid-30s, others fall off a cliff in their late 20s.

Exactly what injury history does Mullins have?   He’s had some issues this year.  Otherwise, I don’t see a single significant injury in the preceding 5 years.

I’m not in favor of extending Mullins, but injuries aren’t the main reason.   He’s slowing down and it’s pretty likely that in a couple of years he won’t be fast enough to play a good CF.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not every player ages the same.  Some guys play well into their mid-30s, others fall off a cliff in their late 20s.

Exactly what injury history does Mullins have?   He’s had some issues this year.  Otherwise, I don’t see a single significant injury in the preceding 5 years.

I’m not in favor of extending Mullins, but injuries aren’t the main reason.   He’s slowing down and it’s pretty likely that in a couple of years he won’t be fast enough to play a good CF.   

I don’t think I would look to trade Mullins this offseason. I was in favor of doing it last offseason but not this year.

He can be the CFer next year on a team trying to win the WS but next year should be his last year with the Os.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think I would look to trade Mullins this offseason. I was in favor of doing it last offseason but not this year.

He can be the CFer next year on a team trying to win the WS but next year should be his last year with the Os.

 

Yeah, I don’t see trading Mullins this offseason either.   He’s vastly superior defensively to our other options for 2024.   And his offense is solid too.  And yes, this is now a team trying to win the WS, not build towards one in a couple of years.

As to 2025, that depends on what we have in Bradfield.   I have heard, from a source whose judgment I completely trust, that Bradfield is a game-changing defender whose defense is and will be better than either Jones or Mullins in their prime. But will he hit enough, and will he be ready by 2025?  My best guess is that he will hit enough, but it would be ambitious to expect him to be ready on Opening Day 2025.   So, that might be reason to keep Mullins through his Arb 3 season.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I don’t see trading Mullins this offseason either.   He’s vastly superior defensively to our other options for 2024.   And his offense is solid too.  And yes, this is now a team trying to win the WS, not build towards one in a couple of years.

As to 2025, that depends on what we have in Bradfield.   I have heard, from a source whose judgment I completely trust, that Bradfield is a game-changing defender whose defense is and will be better than either Jones or Mullins in their prime. But will he hit enough, and will he be ready by 2025?  My best guess is that he will hit enough, but it would be ambitious to expect him to be ready on Opening Day 2025.   So, that might be reason to keep Mullins through his Arb 3 season.

Wow... Can't wait to see this kid. Love the .546 OBP so far.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I don’t see trading Mullins this offseason either.   He’s vastly superior defensively to our other options for 2024.   And his offense is solid too.  And yes, this is now a team trying to win the WS, not build towards one in a couple of years.

As to 2025, that depends on what we have in Bradfield.   I have heard, from a source whose judgment I completely trust, that Bradfield is a game-changing defender whose defense is and will be better than either Jones or Mullins in their prime. But will he hit enough, and will he be ready by 2025?  My best guess is that he will hit enough, but it would be ambitious to expect him to be ready on Opening Day 2025.   So, that might be reason to keep Mullins through his Arb 3 season.

It would be surprising if his defense wasn’t better than those 2 to be honest.

Yea, it’s possible that Mullins is kept for that season but then you basically run the risk of losing an asset for nothing more than a draft pick. I don’t think that’s wise.

Unless Bradfield looks abysmal at the plate or has had injury issues, you should be able to bring him in 2025 and let his defense and speed give you value as he continues to develop the hit tool. Honestly, if the defense is as good as advertised and if he can get on base even 28% of the time right now, he may be a 2ish WAR guy today.

And don’t forget about Fabian. He’s become a little forgotten because of the swing and miss in AA but I’m sure the Os are working with him and if he can get that figured out(or at least improve it), he will move fast as he is also said to be a very good defender, although not as good as Bradfield.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Wow... Can't wait to see this kid. Love the .546 OBP so far.

Just looking at highlights that have been posted, he’s had several infield hits already.  He’s got Mateo-level speed, maybe even a tick faster, and as a LHB he’s got an advantage getting to 1B.  He puts a ton of pressure on the defense.  He’ll be fun to watch, for sure. 

[MCO'sFan]

10 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

They should keep Mullins and Santander, lose Hays. Mountcastle played himself back into the picture after returning from the DL. It's not just the Blue Jays, of course. This is an insider joke on the board. I am surprised you took it seriously.

My comment on his Blue Jays dominance was my own. I wasn’t commenting on anyone’s post regarding that other than to say that his numbers against the Blue Jays skew his overall numbers somewhat. I am aware of the inside joke but it’s also true.