2024 Opening Day Roster

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Do you think any pitching falls into this category? Any TOR pitching?

Which category?  As to the pitchers already on the team, I think Bradish and/or Rodriguez could be a serious Cy Young candidate next year (heck, Bradish already is a fringe candidate), Kremer is still improving, and Means looks to be back in pre-TJ form.  That’s a formidable front four IMO.   As to the minor leaguers, I wouldn’t count on any of them helping the team significantly in 2024, though it’s possible that McDetmott or even could do so.

Anyway, I’m not really advocating a stand pat offseason, I just wanted to point out that improvement doesn’t only come from outside acquisitions, it also can come from within.  

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Do you think any pitching falls into this category? Any TOR pitching?

Hall and Grayson are on positive trajectories and McDermott looks very promising. Means replacing Gibson would in itself be a significant upgrade. If we are going to spend resources on pitching, the biggest bang for buck might be extending Bradish.

[yark14]

I'm trying to figure out who fills the Odor/Frazier "clubhouse veteran" roster spot, stealing AB's from prospects.

My money is on Brandon Crawford.

[now]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No Ks, barely missing bats…this is not something I’m interested in for 3 years.

And even if he shows more over his remaining starts this year, I still would want to see a larger sample size next year before extending him.

No argument here about sample size, but not so sure about the issue of K's. As Palmer (or Ben, not sure which) has commented more than once, low K's in a starter can actually be a feature, not a bug, since it can reduce pitch counts and lengthen outings. Especially given good team defense. Bullpen is a different matter with K's, especially in extras, where they are a premium asset. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Your obsession with Ks in miniscule sample sizes has been commented on elsewhere.  A guy goes 7.1 and gives up 1 h and 1 er and "only" 4 ks is not a bad start.  It's a very, very good start.

He's pitching exactly like he's always pitched: Quite well.  He's already been worth half a win in 17+ innings.

There's nothing to suggest that Means is any more risky than any other FA pitcher.  Probably less so with TJ out of the way.

The last best time to sign him will be this offseason, owner or not.

The idea that you keep talking about 1 start is precisely the problem. And if you want to ignore Ks and missed bats, have at it’s an awful stance to take and is extremely short sighted, especially within the context of offering a long term deal to someone coming off major arm surgery.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, now said:

No argument here about sample size, but not so sure about the issue of K's. As Palmer (or Ben, not sure which) has commented more than once, low K's in a starter can actually be a feature, not a bug, since it can reduce pitch counts and lengthen outings. Especially given good team defense. Bullpen is a different matter with K's, especially in extras, where they are a premium asset. 

Well what they are saying is a myth. It’s just not factually accurate.

It reminds me of the argument in the NFL that is basically always repeated that TOP is a great stat and that keeping the ball away from the other team is how you stop a top offense. That’s just not accurate and it’s been proven inaccurate but yet it’s repeated over and over again.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Sports Guy

[now]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well what they are saying is a myth. It’s just not factually accurate.

It reminds me of the argument in the NFL that is basically always repeated that TOP is a great stat and that keeping the ball away from the other team is how you stop a top offense. That’s just not accurate and it’s been proven inaccurate but yet it’s repeated over and over again.

Okay... so what's your proof that contradicts our resident pitching experts?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, now said:

Okay... so what's your proof that contradicts our resident pitching experts?

I mean, we just had this conversation the other day and I posted multiple articles that debunks it.

Base runners, especially walks, increase pitch counts. If you pitch to contact, the likelihood of baserunners increases. Baserunners mean a chance of runs.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

I wonder if Westburg is the main chip to upgrade the pitching staff this offseason.  Maybe Santander too as the OP noted.  If Westburg stays at 2B, where does Holliday play?  Westburg is probably a small upgrade over Urias at UIF, but is that small upgrade really worth it vs his trade value?  I say that as a Westburg fan. 

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that you keep talking about 1 start is precisely the problem. And if you want to ignore Ks and missed bats, have at it’s an awful stance to take and is extremely short sighted, especially within the context of offering a long term deal to someone coming off major arm surgery.

The idea that anyone is advocating for Means based on one start is a ridiculous strawman of your own making.

Nor is anyone "ignoring" Ks. But saying 17 innings of good pitching with low ks isn't some warning sign. That you reduce all pitching analysis to k rate, even in miniscule sample sizes, is absurd.

Btw, didn't you say Coloumbe was "no good" because of his low k rate last season in a miniscule sample?

Why yes. Yes you did.

[OriolesMagic83]

34 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I'm trying to figure out who fills the Odor/Frazier "clubhouse veteran" roster spot, stealing AB's from prospects.

My money is on Brandon Crawford.

I'm predicting the "clubhouse veteran" will be an OF to compensate if Kjerstad/Cowser aren't ready for regular reps.  Although, I'm concerned that Kjerstad has almost not played the field for the O's.  Someone needs to research if he's actually Jack Cust in disguise.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The idea that anyone is advocating for Means based on one start is a ridiculous strawman of your own making.

Nor is anyone "ignoring" Ks. But saying 17 innings of good pitching with low ks isn't some warning sign. That you reduce all pitching analysis to k rate, even in miniscule sample sizes, is absurd.

Btw, didn't you say Coloumbe was "no good" because of his low k rate last season in a miniscule sample?

Why yes. Yes you did.

Well I said Coulombe was no good because he hasnt been good for like 5 or 6 years and guys like that don’t usually just all of a sudden turn out to be good. Even you can understand that, at least when you aren’t completely lying about what I say.

And didn’t you say Mateo was good and an everyday player?  Oh yea you did and you did that despite most of the evidence telling you that’s a pretty bad opinion.

It’s clear you don’t seem to understand the issue I’m putting out there, so I’ll just sit back and watch you troll and misrepresent my comments, per your usual. 
 

Luckily, I’m sure Elias won’t be stupid and offer Means a contract that he shouldn’t, so I feel good about it not happening.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Sports Guy

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, EERinthe804 said:

I would love for them to make a run at Manoah.  Apparantly he is disgruntled in Toronto - they sent him to AAA a month or two ago and he failed to report.  His value has never been lower and his talent is sky high.  If anyone can fix him it's the Os coaches.

That definitely sounds like an Elias move.  I'm sure the atmosphere in Toronto has been poisoned for Manoah.  He is obviously a hot head and immature, but he has already shown Cy Young potential.  I don't think Toronto would want to trade him in the division in case he recovers to his former self.  Imagine if the O's traded Arrieta to the Yankees and he went on to win a Cy Young there.

[oriole]

If we’re just talking internal candidates then I think it’s pretty easy to put something accurate together. Personally, I don’t believe for a second that Holliday has a real chance at breaking OD. I think Urias at 3B, Henderson at SS, and Westburg at 2B is the most likely every day configuration if they’re not adding anyone significant from outside the organization.

 

If we start talking about potential moves for outside players then this gets a lot more dicey, but fun. Personally, I’d like to see two mid-rotation starters added. Give me something like Jordan Montgomery and Logan Gilbert. Tell me that a rotation of Rodriguez, Bradish, Montgomery, Gilbert, and Means is not one of the most balanced rotations in baseball. Insert similar names for the additions, I’m not particularly hung up on specifics right now. That’d push Wells and Kremer to the BP full time. 

Id probably resign both Fuji and Hicks, if he’s interested. That leaves a bullpen with something like Cano, Fuji, Webb, Coulombe, Hall, Wells, Kremer, and Perez. I gotta agree about Bautista, unfortunately. 
 

Big if, but if we are thinking that Holliday is a legit consideration then I’d be moving Urias. Mateo seems like a easy DFA. Ortiz can be the backup infielder. I may even consider moving Urias anyways and slotting Ortiz at SS until Holliday is ready. 
 

Anyways, that’s really just an addition of a couple mid rotation starters (one through FA, one through trade), an okay bullpen addition, and possibly a veteran presence if Hicks is okay with a backup role in the OF. I don’t really feel the veteran presence is totally necessary, but judging by offseasons of the past, Elias finds it very necessary no matter how redundant the piece may be. 

 

Also, there’s no room for all of Hays, Mullins, Santander, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers. I’m thinking at least one of these OF guys can be part of the aforementioned trade for a mid rotation starter. Does something like Kjerstad, Basallo, and Urias get Gilbert? I dunno…getting too specific now. 

[now]

Just chipping in here on Urias... his power outage combined with defensive lapses of late (not to mention younger competition in house) have me ready to move on after this season. Potential payoff heroics might even sweeten the trade value instead of appetite to retain him.