2023 #9 Prospect Chayce McDermott - RHP

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/12/2023-9-prospect-chayce-mcdermott-sp/

Probably the pitcher that upped his prospects status the most in 2023, this hard throwing right-hander may have a legitimate shot at sticking as a starter if he can continue to improve his command, but could end up in Baltimore's 2024 bullpen.

Chayce McDermott
Throws: Right
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 24
2023 Level: AA/AAA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 60/65
Slider: 50/55
Sweeper: 45/50
Curveball: 55/60
Splitter: 40/50
Command: 40/45

Pitch	Velo	Spin	Vert	Horiz	Total	%	Strike%	Whiff%	CSW%
4-Seam Fastball	93.8	2073	13.9	-6.7	204	53.1	59.3	32.9	33.3
Slider	83.8	2577	36.6	5.5	62	16.2	58.1	33.3	25.8
Sweeper	80.9	2795	39.5	13.5	52	13.5	57.7	30.8	23.1
Curveball	76.1	2837	63.3	10.1	44	11.5	59.1	50.0	31.8
Splitter	84.0	1045	33.6	-9.1	22	5.7	54.6	36.4	22.7

Most Likely Future Role: High Leverage reliever/Closer
Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter

What we know: Acquired from the Astros in the Trey Mancini trade along with Seth Johnson from Tampa, McDermott has always had the stuff, but it's always been about his command, but that command took a step forward in 2023 and really took off in AAA.

His fastball is an above-average offering with low to mid-90s velocities with a low approach angle that allows it to play up. With 16" - 18" inches of vertical break from a low arm slot it sets him up to have the coveted high IVB high VAA fastball which allows him to get an above average Whiff. McDermott offsets this plus fastball with throws three distinct, high-spin breaking balls, all that miss bats. His usage varies from start to start depending on which he commands best that day but the curveball tends to get more swing and miss.

He also mixes in a splitter with good vertical movement, but his command of the pitch is not very good. Of course, command of all of his pitches is an ongoing issue for him, as evident from his 5.1 walk/9 though that dropped to 4.3/9 in AAA. He also had a sub-60% strike rate for each pitch.

McDermott was hard to hit holding AAA batters to a .156/.268/.266/.534 in 50.2 IP.

McDermott certainly has a starter’s repertoire, but lacks a starter’s command right now but that improved. If his command can take another step forward in 2024, he could very well stick as a starter.

What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing quality strikes that he can stick as a starter? Will he be able to give the team a consistent 6 innings or is his best role in the bullpen? He'll pitch at 25-years old next year and the Orioles could use a dominant reliever. Could they decide to move him to the pen or start him back in AAA to work on command and be starting pitching depth.

What we think: McDermott still doesn't need to be put on the 40-man roster until December 2024, so the Orioles may decide to leave him in AAA to start the year. Saying that, McDermott could be the right-handed version of DL Hall where a move to the bullpen will make him useful in right away. McDermott seemed to drop his velocity to throw more strikes so it's not known whether a move to the pen will increase his velocity, but he'd probably sit in the mid-90s at least in that role.

[Aristotelian]

Great year for McDermott. He wasn't really on my radar screen until he hit AAA. By the end of the year it looked like he had a chance of coming up for the playoffs. Didn't happen but seems like he should get at least some consideration for the opening day roster.

[Sports Guy]

I had this one wrong. I assumed you would value Norby and Horvath similarly and would have them both over McDermott since he has more of a reliever profile.

That said, I think this is the way I would rank them. I would rather have McDermott vs Norby or Horvath. 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I had this one wrong. I assumed you would value Norby and Horvath similarly and would have them both over McDermott since he has more of a reliever profile.

That said, I think this is the way I would rank them. I would rather have McDermott vs Norby or Horvath. 

While McDermott's command is definitely a concern for him sticking as a starter, but the end of the year it had become less of an issue and two different plus breaking balls really stand out in c=giving him a shot at being a back of the rotation guy and a mid-rotation guy IF his command continues to improve. 

He's got a high floor because I see him a bit as a right-handed DL Hall, with a little less velocity but better offspeed selections.

[Frobby]

I like having the pitch data you added.  It might be helpful to add some shading to indicate where the numbers are particularly good or bad.   Isn’t 2073 a very low spin rate for a fastball?  All the whiff rate numbers look good, though I don’t know what’s “normal.”  

I saw McDermott pitch for Bowie once in 2022 and his problem that day was an inconsistent curve that tied several hitters in knots but he also hung a couple that got destroyed.   Hopefully he’s overcome that inconsistency.   He seemed to make great strides in 2023.   
 

[LookinUp]

I really like this guy and think you could make a case for him being as high as 6 in this list (if you're down on Cowser). 

In the write-up, Tony says "Of course, command of all of his pitches is an ongoing issue for him, as evident from his 5.1 walk/9 though that dropped to 4.3/9 in AAA." 

As a reminder, AAA had the automated strike zone, so guys weren't getting strikes called that were actually balls. That indicates even more improvement than may be apparent in the 5.1 to 4.3 summary numbers. According to this article, BB rates actually went down when guys moved from AAA to the majors. That seems crazy based on the level of competition alone, so it seems like the automated zone really inflated walk rates in AAA this year.

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I really like this guy and think you could make a case for him being as high as 6 in this list (if you're down on Cowser). 

In the write-up, Tony says "Of course, command of all of his pitches is an ongoing issue for him, as evident from his 5.1 walk/9 though that dropped to 4.3/9 in AAA." 

As a reminder, AAA had the automated strike zone, so guys weren't getting strikes called that were actually balls. That indicates even more improvement than may be apparent in the 5.1 to 4.3 summary numbers. According to this article, BB rates actually went down when guys moved from AAA to the majors. That seems crazy based on the level of competition alone, so it seems like the automated zone really inflated walk rates in AAA this year.

 

The automatic strike zone may have helped McDermott.  He’s got a big breaking curveball that really goes down.  Umps tend to miss that pitch a lot.  

[sportsfan8703]

I think he gets all of next year to stick as a SP.  Even if he gets called up for relief, it could be only for a short stint like Hall.  2ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his 50 IP in AAA.  Even though there's quesitons about him, he'd be much more valuable as a SP.  Hopefully, we won't be so desperate in MR next year.  

[LookinUp]

By the way, in my post above, I don't mean to imply that command is no longer an issue for McDermott. I assume it is. I just think he improved this year, and maybe even more than is obvious when looking at the numbers.

[sportsfan8703]

I do think that there is something to a player actually getting reliever experience in AAA before being asked to do it at the MLB level.  I just don't think we're hurting that badly for relievers just quite yet.  Starting Pitching is just so hard to come by.  Hopefully, one of Mcdermott, Povich, and Johnson, can develop into a MLB level SP.  Having them being cheap rotation options will allow us to spend elsewhere.  

[bpilktree]

I think he has a little Lance McCullers in him with upper level velocity and big time breaking ball.  McCullers was drafted out of High school compared to Chayce so he will be but older but stuff looks somewhat similar.  

[Tony-OH]

@Frobby asked and he shall receive. 

Here's a Chayce McDermott Highlight video. Please like and subscribe to the channel. Thanks.

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

@Frobby asked and he shall receive. 

Here's a Chayce McDermott Highlight video. Please like and subscribe to the channel. Thanks.

 

What, only 15 pitches here?   Watching this, it seemed like McDermott’s strikeouts came from swings on pitches outside the zone more than Povich.  Personally, I kind of like Povich’s delivery and pitch mix better, if he can stay ahead of hitters and throw strikes.  

I’ve never subscribed to a YouTube channel before and don’t know how, but I will try to figure it out.  Thanks for all the hard work!
 

[LookinUp]

I'm not sure how meaningful it is, but I like that athletic delivery. I also think his ability to throw the fastball at the knees helps him get chases below the zone.

And that single change up they showed was sick. If he masters that, he's worth watching.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure how meaningful it is, but I like that athletic delivery. I also think his ability to throw the fastball at the knees helps him get chases below the zone.

And that single change up they showed was sick. If he masters that, he's worth watching.

Agree on the changeup.  That was a nice one.  Good separation between the change (84 mph) and the fastball (95).