Would you trade Cowser and Ortiz for Cease (December follow up)?

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Interesting. Same poll on November 6, 37 said Yes and 62 said no.  This poll is going in the opposite direction.   

People can't control their emotions.  Common negotiating mistakes.

[jamalshw]

I honestly don't know...so if it's not a no, I guess it's a reluctant yes...but I don't think I'd throw in a third unless it was a non-consequential third. He's an upgrade to the rotation without a doubt. But he's a bit of an enigma. His stuff is amazing, but the walks are troubling...if nothing other than for selfish reasons I'd like a different (at least as good) option for the rotation because the walks would frustrate me so much. 

That said, I do think having a competent defense behind him would certainly help him. I don't think expecting the 2.20 ERA Cease is realistic, but I also don't think this 4.58 ERA Cease was the real Cease. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

28 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I personally wouldn't do it.

If they do it, then they must think higher of Cease than I do.

That would be my take as well. If the Orioles analytics team thinks they can get Cease looking something closer to his 2022 season then it's worth a shot. There's a chance you get the same Dylan Cease as last season and you have to be prepared for that in trading for him.

The White Sox organization is a mess and I have to think the Orioles under Elias can get the best out of Cease. I'd prefer signing a free agent pitcher, but the available pool of pitching talent is only decreasing the longer the Orioles wait to act.

I voted yes if it's only those two prospects.

Edited November 30, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[StottyByNature]

I'd offer Cowser and their choice of Ortiz/Westburg/Norby.  I would definitely throw in a third flier but no one in the top 15.  

The trade makes too much sense not to happen.  

[StottyByNature]

23 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I honestly don't know...so if it's not a no, I guess it's a reluctant yes...but I don't think I'd throw in a third unless it was a non-consequential third. He's an upgrade to the rotation without a doubt. But he's a bit of an enigma. His stuff is amazing, but the walks are troubling...if nothing other than for selfish reasons I'd like a different (at least as good) option for the rotation because the walks would frustrate me so much. 

That said, I do think having a competent defense behind him would certainly help him. I don't think expecting the 2.20 ERA Cease is realistic, but I also don't think this 4.58 ERA Cease was the real Cease. 

His FIP the past three years is 3.41, 3.10, 3.72.  I think that's an accurate reflection of the guy.  Good track record, takes the ball, lots of strikeouts.  A Cowser/Ortiz package is fair value for that.  Anything more would probably be too much.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Yes.  He’d slot in as #3 at worst and a #1 at best.  We lost our innings eater horse and need to replace those IP.  His 200+ Ks the last 3 years look great.  I don’t see the O’s signing any FA pitchers of note.  

Off subject a bit, but I’d like to try and get another SP as well.  I’d love to find a way to get Robert’s with Cease and would be OK giving up Mayo or Holliday to do it.  That would free up Mullins/Kremer for a trade for another SP.  

He’s not slotting above G-Rod and Bradish. I’d honestly put Means above him too but that’s more debatable. 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

His FIP the past three years is 3.41, 3.10, 3.72.  I think that's an accurate reflection of the guy.  Good track record, takes the ball, lots of strikeouts.  A Cowser/Ortiz package is fair value for that.  Anything more would probably be too much.

Didn’t someone say XFIP was better

3.72

3.50 

4.08

 

 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, dystopia said:

He’s not slotting above G-Rod and Bradish. I’d honestly put Means above him too but that’s more debatable. 

Disagree a bit. I'd expect the O's to do something like this:

Bradish
Cease
Means
Rodriguez (more to do with Cease and Means being veterans, but you also limit Grayson's innings just a hair early on)
Kremer/Hall/Wells/Uwasawa?

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Disagree a bit. I'd expect the O's to do something like this:

Bradish
Cease
Means
Rodriguez (more to do with Cease and Means being veterans, but you also limit Grayson's innings just a hair early on)
Kremer/Hall/Wells/Uwasawa?

I don’t think slotting G-Rod fourth instead of second is going to limit his innings in any meaningful way. 

[interloper]

Just now, dystopia said:

I don’t think slotting G-Rod fourth instead of second is going to limit his innings in any meaningful way. 

You are probably right. 

[forphase1]

Nope.  I'd offer Cowser OR Ortiz along with 2-4 Norby and lower types, but I'm not trading BOTH Cowser and Ortiz.  Cease isn't worth 2 of our top 6 (by Tony's list) prospects IMO.  

[ScGO's]

I wonder if they do Ortiz and  Westburg straight up

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Interesting. Same poll on November 6, 37 said Yes and 62 said no.  This poll is going in the opposite direction.   

Very strange. I had to do a double take to see what I said on the previous thread. Two weeks is an eternity for the OH. However, I still go with the same answer. No, but it's close enough that if Elias pulled the trigger I'd be OK with it. 

[LookinUp]

I voted no, but it's kind of splitting hairs.

I wouldn't do it because I think we could package those two plus two lesser guys (Stowers + Wagner or Willems, for example) for someone who might be better and has more control. I just think we can get more for a deal.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, StottyByNature said:

I'd offer Cowser and their choice of Ortiz/Westburg/Norby.  I would definitely throw in a third flier but no one in the top 15.  

The trade makes too much sense not to happen.  

2 top 100….Actually top 50 is too much. You bunch Westburg/Ortiz/Norby….but Ortiz is #50 according to MLB. Norby is likely top 101-120 that use to be top 100 and Westburg was also top 50 but apparently doesn’t qualify based on MLB time.

As a side not we still have 5 of the top 50 but no one in the 51-100.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Edited November 30, 2023 by Roll Tide