MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

My employer doesn’t operate under luxury tax and or salary cap. With international players and the clear advantage the haves versus the have nots it should count imo. 

Your employer doesn't per se but they do have a budget and the ONLY benefit for the Dodgers in deferring is to fit within the framework of their short term payroll budget.  Ownership gave them a budget and the GM is finding a creative way to work within it-it has absolutely nothing to do with a salary cap or the corresponding CBT tax-nothing!! 

There is no $70m salary....not one person in the baseball industry looks at this as a $70m contract.  His agent certainly isn't waiting on his 3-4 points-he is getting it from the Dodgers as they disburse yearly payments and it's on the $45m not $70m.

You have a good point in that that postings should be apportioned against the AAV in the CBT, not fair that they aren't.  

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Yeah, Irvin's fall off was all of three starts. Then he was demoted, and the rest of the year had a 3.20 ERA in his time with the O's (including nine more starts). I do think he's overly discounted around here. 

Him being fine is some of why my taste is for both Wells and Hall in the bullpen.

The April SP5 role is less important than the leverage reliever role, especially with Felix absent this season.

If Irvin were not on the roster, Wells for however long he lasts would probably be the most sense 5th starter to get to July.

[Just Regular]

DL Hall just needs to have anything vaguely adjacent to Rodrigo Lopez's April 2002 or Spencer Strider's April 2022 and then he'll got a spot start, and then he'll get all the opportunity his performances can earn.

[Spy Fox]

57 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's a lot I agree with here, especially limiting time at the park in order to watch at home.  That might be different if I lived closer to the stadium but I suspect it wouldn't be a huge impact.  AC, crystal clear big screen TV, cheaper food, etc.

I also liked where you called him Che, that was pretty funny  

This isn't direct at you, but it's always struck me as a bit odd that we consider professional sports to be entertainment, yet it's the one form of entertainment where the fans don't hold back about critiquing the owners and players on how much money they have.  I don't know of anyone who says that Tom Cruise makes too much money for a Mission Impossible film, nor do I know anyone that thinks the head of Warner Brothers makes too much money.  All I hear about is how many albums Taylor Swift has sold and how much she's made on her tour, but no one seems upset about it.  No one says that her album producer or the record label she's under make too much.  I don't hear anyone saying Vince McMahon has too much money or that WWE wrestlers are overpaid.

Maybe that's because a lot of us played baseball, I dunno.  

You didn't follow the writers/actors' strikes too much last year. 

Anyway, I think the biggest reason for the difference you're citing is that nobody is a specific fan of Warner Brothers or Disney etc in a way where they root for that company's product to succeed more than the other companies. People care more about their sports teams' spending and budgets, etc, because we are personally invested in the product succeeding. And they way they spend, or don't spend, their money is a component of their success. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It won’t be Luzardo but I think they end up with a Marlins starter if they don’t get Cease, which I don’t think they will.

Yeah that's what I see happening too.  Probably Cabrera because I think his cost will be the lowest.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah that's what I see happening too.  Probably Cabrera because I think his cost will be the lowest.

Yep..he makes the most sense but he does carry more risk than a more established guy like Cease would.

But we just match up much better with Miami than we do Chicago.

[Just Regular]

On the field, Andrew Friedman making Chris Taylor a 10th guy is notable.

We'll see as long as he's here whether Jordan Westburg, a player I loosely hope to be around Taylor-valuable, ever gets some peace and quiet as a starting third baseman for months at a time.

[OriolesMagic83]

Would Ortiz or Westburg plus a prospect or 2 outside the O's top 20 be enough for Cabrera. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

lol…I’d wager you knew nothing about Lorenzen before July of last year.

You would lose that wager.   I knew about him as a starter with LAA in 2022, and he was a FA last off season and signed with DET.   Didn't know much about him with Cin.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Might be nice if you showed my whole quote.

“Fair point but I think it’s more about an uneven playing field and the David vs Goliath thing.   The Dodgers, Yankees, etc, can afford 300M payrolls while, even if Angelo’s spent everything, maybe the O’s could do 100-150M.   You can’t buy championships but it sure doesn’t hurt.  If there was a 150M floor and 200M cap (neverhappen) there would be a lot less complaining.“

The Mets spent more than anyone and didn’t even make the playoffs.  You can’t buy a championship but it certainly improves your chances as in the Ranger’s case.

The money won't buy your a championship, but it will allow you to overcome mistake and injuries easier during the regular season and that's why most of then highest payrolls are consistently good. Unless you are the Mets! lol

[sportsfan8703]

Could Ortiz land us one of Stone, Frasso, Knack, River, or Hurt in a trade?  The Dodgers get a SS prospect at position they are thin. We get a SP prospect at a position where he we are thin. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You would lose that wager.   I knew about him as a starter with LAA in 2022, and he was a FA last off season and signed with DET.   Didn't know much about him with Cin.

You mean when he threw less than 100 IP to mediocre results?  And you still want him?  Ok, so maybe you knew something but are just an awful judge of talent?  

He’s a terrible option. Not better than what we have in house. 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean when he threw less than 100 IP to mediocre results?  And you still want him?  Ok, so maybe you knew something but are just an awful judge of talent?  

He’s a terrible option. Not better than what we have in house. 

The O's have 3 starters that can probably start 32 games next year.  Bradish, GRod and Kremer. That 96 games

Means may be able to start 25.   That 121 games.

That leaves 41 games to be started by the 5th, 6th and 7th starters.

Wells will probably only give 20 if he is a starter.  Some want him in the pen.

I am not comfortable with Irvin and McDermott starting between 21 to 41 games.

And unlike you I don't want Hall pitching 4 innings a start because he throws too many pitches an inning.

The O's need another starter.  

Lorenzen probably cost about 10m a year.   Added to the 13m for Kimbrel that would be about what the O's spend last year in FA. His career ERA is 4.11.  His ERA last year was 4.18 and 153 IP.  He may be better than that with the O's defense, analytics and pitching coaches.  That is about 50 point lower that Gibson.  He is also a right-handed reliever if needed.

Lorenzen may get a 2 year contract.  I doubt the O's go there.  Lorenzen is a one year stopgap waiting for McDermott, Hall, Johnson and Povich to mature.  But the FA market only gets worse from here.

Its pretty close to the salary that is projected for Cease.   So in the ballpark.   But the Sox want a bunch of high value prospects.   I don't know if that is happening. 

Would I love a better starter? Sure.   I just don't know where that is coming from.

Edited January 8 by wildcard

[Ripken]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's have 3 starters that can probably start 32 games next year.  Bradish, GRod and Kremer. That 96 games

Means may be able to start 25.   That 121 games.

And what if that's not how it goes?  Injuries happen and I don't want Kremer starting a playoff game.  Could he have a really good season and change that opinion?  Yes, but that's certainly not expected right now.  And, yes, they can add pitching during the season, but it's always more expensive.  Elias really, really needs to improve the rotation now.  Enough hoarding prospects and squeezing every dime.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Ripken said:

And what if that's not how it goes?  Injuries happen and I don't want Kremer starting a playoff game.  Could he have a really good season and change that opinion?  Yes, but that's certainly not expected right now.  And, yes, they can add pitching during the season, but it's always more expensive.  Elias really, really needs to improve the rotation now.  Enough hoarding prospects and squeezing every dime.

I see GRod, Bradish, Means and Wells as playoff starters.   Wells wears down, so his starts have to be managed.   He will need some rest in the middle of the season.  He has options and there is the IL. But if he can pitch in the playoffs the way he has pitched in the last 2 season's 1st halves.  He is a playoff starter.

Edited January 8 by wildcard