Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Missing bats isn’t overblown. 

Yes it is.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Missing bats isn’t overblown. It’s arguably the single most important thing a pitcher can do.

Yeah, but some people act like it’s about the only thing that matters.  Hence, important but still overblown by many.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, but some people act like it’s about the only thing that matters.  Hence, important but still overblown by many.  

I don’t think anyone thinks it’s the only thing that matters. That’s a strawman argument.

However, when discussing differences between pitchers, who we should go after, etc…missing bats should be a high priority in any of those conversations.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think anyone thinks it’s the only thing that matters. That’s a strawman argument.

However, when discussing differences between pitchers, who we should go after, etc…missing bats should be a high priority in any of those conversations.

 

That’s fine so long as there’s context.  For example, if a guy has a relatively low K rate and has a year where his ERA is good but his BABIP is low and HR/FB is low, we all recognize that there’s a good probability that luck was involved.   But if a guy has a relatively low K rate and puts up a good ERA 5 years in a row, that tells us there’s some reason this guy is having success despite not missing that many bats.  And that’s kind of where Framber Valdez is, though his K rate isn’t really that low, just low for a pitcher with his results.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s fine so long as there’s context.  For example, if a guy has a relatively low K rate and has a year where his ERA is good but his BABIP is low and HR/FB is low, we all recognize that there’s a good probability that luck was involved.   But if a guy has a relatively low K rate and puts up a good ERA 5 years in a row, that tells us there’s some reason this guy is having success despite not missing that many bats.  And that’s kind of where Framber Valdez is, though his K rate isn’t really that low, just low for a pitcher with his results.  

Well it’s not that simple. Lots of other factors are involved.

However, the margin for error for those types of pitchers tends to be lower.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s not that simple. Lots of other factors are involved.

Sure.   I just didn’t want to write a book.  

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you go back to my first reply my words were "for the majority of his career" Valdez has had a bad WHIP and as someone else pointed out I wasn't trying to make an apples to apples comparision between Valdez and Cease's WHIP. I was just using it as an example to make a point about Valdez not missing as many bats.  Yes, Valdez has been a better pitcher so far in his career, but if Cease costs less to trade for then I'd rather have him because he's younger and I think his pitching skill set will age better. 

This is officially my last post/reply about Valdez and missing bats because I've been fillibustered out of caring. 

A bad WHIP "for the majority of his career?"  

2018 - 1.24

2019 - 1.67

2020 - 1.11

2021 - 1.24

2022 - 1.15

2023 - 1.12

Other than 2019, what are you talking about??? 

[Frobby]

If you look at Valdez’s Baseball Savant page, he really didn’t do a lot well in 2023 except induce ground balls.   He was in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, and 6th for hard hit rate.  His xERA was 4.33, about a run higher than in 2022.  

[BRobinsonfan]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think anyone thinks it’s the only thing that matters. That’s a strawman argument.

However, when discussing differences between pitchers, who we should go after, etc…missing bats should be a high priority in any of those conversations.

 

Missing bats is important, but missing barrels is important too. 

[Billy F-Face3]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Missing bats isn’t overblown. It’s arguably the single most important thing a pitcher can do.

Not if the reason he's "missing bats" is because he's throwing balls and walking the bases loaded.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Not if the reason he's "missing bats" is because he's throwing balls and walking the bases loaded.

Umm, that’s not what a missed bat is.  

[Billy F-Face3]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Umm, that’s not what a missed bat is.  

Facetious

1: joking or jesting often inappropriately 

just being facetious

2: meant to be humorous or funny : not serious

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/facetious

[Jim'sKid26]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you look at Valdez’s Baseball Savant page, he really didn’t do a lot well in 2023 except induce ground balls.   He was in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, and 6th for hard hit rate.  His xERA was 4.33, about a run higher than in 2022.  

His sinker is his weakest pitch by far and he throws it the most (46.9%). He gave up 11 HR on it with a BBA = .274 and SLG = .455 with an xWOBA = . 391. in 2023.

If you contrast that with his other pitches it is surprising he throws it as much as he does. It could be that his 4SFB is even worse than his 2SFB or that the old saw of a LH pitcher should throw a 2 seamer rather than a 4 seamer is in play here. It just seems to me that Houston is a very data driven organization and somehow this issue is rather glaring. Now he did throw a 4SFB in 2022 (SSS) and the results were rather mixed. Now his sinker does induce alot of ground balls. Perhaps this compensates for the raw numbers. Curious.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[HakunaSakata]

41 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

A bad WHIP "for the majority of his career?"  

2018 - 1.24

2019 - 1.67

2020 - 1.11

2021 - 1.24

2022 - 1.15

2023 - 1.12

Other than 2019, what are you talking about??? 

So you think a career WHIP of 1.22 is good for an ace? Because it's not. Especially for one who doesn't have control issues. That's what I'm talking out!!!

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

So you think a career WHIP of 1.22 is good for an ace? Because it's not. Especially for one who doesn't have control issues. That's what I'm talking out!!!

about (not out). God damn typos.