Are we underestimating Chayce McDermott?

[wildcard]

McDermott is 25.  He pitched 119 inning with  3.10 ERA, 69 H,  152 K,  1.151 WHIP at AA/AAA.   He did better at AAA than he did at AA.   In 8 starts at AAA he had a 2.53 ERA,  42.2 IP,  22 H, 55K. 1.01  WHIP. Less hits than innings pitched.  More strikeouts than innings pitched.

If he does that for 7 more starts at AAA is he ready for the O's rotation?  We are all about getting O's AAA position players to the majors.   Is McDermott ready by June?

Edited January 22 by wildcard

[Frobby]

He could be ready by June, or some other time this summer.   I just don’t think we should count on it.  

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

McDermott is 25.  He pitched 119 inning with  3.10 ERA, 69 H,  152 K,  1.151 WHIP at AA/AAA.   He did better at AAA than he did at AA.   In 8 starts at AAA he had a 2.53 ERA,  42.2 IP,  22 H, 55K. 1.01  WHIP. Less hits than innings pitched.  More strikeouts than innings pitched.

If he does that for 7 more starts at AAA is he ready for the O's rotation?  We are all about getting O's AAA position players to the majors.   Is McDermott ready by June?

So barely 5 innings ….are we limiting his pitch counts in the minors?

His BB9 is 5+ per 9 …. So the answer to your question is probably not 

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So barely 5 innings ….are we limiting his pitch counts in the minors?

His BB9 is 5+ per 9 …. So the answer to your question is probably not 

The thing about McDermott is he's a bit like DL Hall in that it typically takes him a lot of pitches to get outs. Part of that is a lack of command and another part is that hitters don't typically hit him very hard because of the quality of stuff, leading to a decent amount of foul balls.

In two of eight AAA starts he didn't make it to the 4th inning, but one of those he was pulled after just 52 pitches. He's also still pretty inconsistent start to start. That's why there is a very real reliever risk to him.

Now, saying that, he did have some very nice outs where he was able to get through the 6th and one start made it through seven on just 92 pitches so there are days where it all works. 

What he needs to do is show more consistency from start to start in 2024 and get deeper into games by pitching to contact a little more against hitters that can't really hurt him. 

He's still very much a wildcard for the rotation in 2024, but it would not surprise me if he ends up seeing a decent amount of big league time in the second half of 2024. Whether that's in the rotation or in the pen will be depending on need and how he's pitching. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcderm000cha&type=pgl&year=2023

[Sports Guy]

No

[interloper]

I think we are estimating him properly: trade candidate or 2nd half option in the rotation or bullpen. 

[BRobinsonfan]

That walk rate is pretty dreadful at 5.3 BBs per 9 innings over 244 minor league innings.  

[wildcard]

Just now, Frobby said:

He could be ready by June, or some other time this summer.   I just don’t think we should count on it.  

Should we count on Cowser, Holliday, Ortiz, Kjerstad?   What is the difference?

[RZNJ]

I think he’s a potential rotation piece or high leverage reliever.  If the splitter can an effective off speed pitch he might surprise further.   The walks are an issue but he did go from 5.6 to 5.1 (4.3 at AAA) walks per 9 in.   More progress is needed but I like him.

[Otter]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Should we count on Cowser, Holliday, Ortiz, Kjerstad?   What is the difference?

Are you making a joke or is this a serious question?  You really don't know the difference between the prospect status (and the reasons why) between Holliday and McDermott??  You can't 100% count on any prospect until they prove it in the majors, but some are much more likely to be counted on than others.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Should we count on Cowser, Holliday, Ortiz, Kjerstad?   What is the difference?

The difference is a lot of those guys made their debuts, are our own draft picks, have spent longer in AAA, and are higher rated players that we know a lot about. We know less about McDermott since he popped relatively recently. 

[btdart20]

The BB% has been mentioned.  Is the .233 Babip against sustainable?  That might be largely driven by a really high 25.6-26.1% IFFB%.  MLB norm is sub10%.  His MiLB IFFB% are 18.2%, 21.8%, and 16.7% (excluding the stops with less 5 or less IP).  What about the 7-8.7% HR/FB rate?  

I don't think we're overrating him.  But I think he has a few more questions to answer before I'm comfortable saying he can make the transition to the MLB as anything more than a RP.  

Sounds like I'm down on him, which isn't quite true either.  The K% is nice!  A little bit of improvement in the BB% would go a long way.

[Yardball85]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Should we count on Cowser, Holliday, Ortiz, Kjerstad?   What is the difference?

I don't know that anyone is "counting" on those guys either.  But they are all higher-ranked prospects than McDermott, so I have a better feeling about their chances of success than McDermott's. 

 

[wildcard]

So it sounds like McDermott task at Norfolk for the first two months is to lower his walks.

[Flash- bd]

I think he's a really interesting arm and think he gives us pretty good depth behind potential DL Hall / Tyler Wells injuries (or potential poor performance) should we not add a SP and decide to go with the better of those two in ST as the #5 starter and the poorer as a high leverage bullpen guy. 

The more I think about it the more I really just am not sure trading for a SP is the best use of our assets. Really feels to me like an upgrade on one of our OFs or in the bullpen is. DL Hall feels like the one who's being underestimated above all, I know relieving isn't the same as starting, and that it's a SSS, but his 2.3 BB/9 and 4.60 SO/W rate suggests to me he might just offer better upside as a starter than any of the options that are being discussed to trade for. And a healthy Tyler Wells is not a half bad back-up plan, along with McDermott and Irvin as further depth.