Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[deward]

25 minutes ago, Sammy Seagull said:

This is ONLY a good trade if Burnes stays 3-5 years. One year deal is a poor move, Elias should be embarrassed he did this deal only to pacify band wagon fans. Prove me wrong.

Wait, so us folks who have been following the team for 30+ years shouldn't be excited about this? Yeah, you're right, I hate clear and blatant attempts to win a title. If it's not done the hardest possible way, then it's not worth doing, right? 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Do you want to do that though for a 30 year old pitcher likely to command 200+ mil over five or more seasons? Maybe he ends up having a Scherzer like career and it will be worth it, but it seems risky. 

I rather extend Gunnar and Jackson, unless we are going to be able to start dishing out huge contracts like candy.  

I would be ok going up to 4 years extension, to include a bump this year which would make it a five year deal. I would not be interested in 7-year deal after the season. 

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would be ok going up to 4 years extension, to include a bump this year which would make it a five year deal. I would not be interested in 7-year deal after the season. 

Unless Burnes has a disappointing season, I would be shocked if he gets less than five years in free agency.  I'd bet on 6-7.  Not because it makes sense.  But because there are always a few teams who don't care about the money. 

[Jim'sKid26]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we all preferred Burnes over Cease, but most thought Burnes would cost too much. If I thought Burnes was available for what we got him for, he certainly would have been at the top of the list, even with just one season left.

I think Elias thinks he has a chance of extending Burnes now that he has a new owner and pulled the trigger.

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him?

Comps:

1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS.

2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS

3) David Price, Red Sox,  7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS

4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS

5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS

2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS.

 

So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

[Sports Guy]

 

[sportsfan8703]

Has to be our biggest “buying” acquisition since Tejeda. Bigger than Andrew Miller or Bud Norris. I’m Counting the Bedard trade as “selling”. 

[btdart20]

Even Burnes' K% isn't higher than Cease's, BB% and quality of contact (both leading to lower WHIP) are two comparative strengths that Burnes has over Cease.  Considering the pitch clock and pickoff limitations, a BB or single are frequently more than one base just on the SB.

Burnes is a legit ace.  Easily top 10, probably top 5, and a strong case for top 3.  Unless we were getting Strider or Cole, one year of Burnes is as good as it could get. 

 

Godspeed to Ortiz and Hall. 

[clapdiddy]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

I sorta lean this way too. My only question is adding $15 mil to the budget. Angelos could have said "sure go ahead but let's wait until I have the sale agreement in hand". 

Other than that, I would caution folks from assuming this means we're gonna go sign Montgomery and issue mass extensions and all that. Still a lot we don't know.

I was actually thinking about this.   I kind of like Montgomery.    He seemed to be rejuvenated when he went to Texas.   He's great against LH hitters and would have a pretty decent defense around him. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him?

Comps:

1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS.

2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS

3) David Price, Red Sox,  7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS

4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS

5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS

2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS.

 

So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

I do think that's a reasonable estimation and probably something Elias would not be too interested in due to the injury risk factor with pitcher's entering their 30s. 

Saying that, Burnes has stayed pretty healthy during his career and he doesn't really have a ton of innings on him, so maybe he is the guy Elias thinks can anchor this rotation, especially since Bradish and Rodriquez will be relatively cheap over at least 3-5 years of that contract.

I'm so used to the Orioles being under the Angelos-led budget limitations that I've never really thought about it for the Orioles. But I do drool at the thoughts of a Burnes, Bradish, GRod top three for next 4-5 years. 

We're just in uncharted territory and while I do think Rubenstein is going to spend money, we do know that the market limitations most likely will keep him from spending like a drunken sailor. 

I'm a big believer in Burnes stuff and think of him as a TOR. Bradish and GRod may turn into them, but Burnes is already one and without a ton of innings on him, who's to say he can't be very effective deep into his 30's?

[ChuckS]

10 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him?

Comps:

1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS.

2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS

3) David Price, Red Sox,  7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS

4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS

5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS

2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS.

 

So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

7/250 sounds about right if he has another Burnes like year.  Again, I'd pass unless we are suddenly going to turn into a top five spending team because there are other players I rather give that kind of money to. 

[Bemorewins]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BTW, I don’t think the new owner has anything to do with this trade.

I know  people want to connect those dots but it’s highly unlikely that had anything to do with it.

You think it is pure coincidence that we sit on our hands all offseason, then new ownership announced and 48 hours later this kind of trade takes place? 

[foxfield]

48 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Three or four writers on The Athletic gave the Orioles an A for the trade.  That's great, but the writeups on Cease are absolutely glowing:

https://theathletic.com/5245961/2024/02/01/mlb-trade-grades-corbin-burnes-deal/

Baltimore's gonna love him, as Baltimore loves a good chip on it's shoulder.

Seized the moment!

It Burnes me that you confuse Dylan and Corbin.  Please Cease.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, foxfield said:

It Burnes me that you confuse Dylan and Corbin.  Please Cease.

Well I was flipping tabs back and forth between the White Sox board 

[sportsfan8703]

Looks like this was an already negotiated deal that came together once Elias could get approval to add $15 million in payroll. Just a shame that we would’ve entered the season without this deal because of that. Also, I’ll assume that’s why we chose Flaherty over Montgomery at the trade deadline last year. Montgomery was owed like $5 million more post deadline.

We’re so lucky that we didn’t have to pinch penny’s and waste a Adley/Gunnar year.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You think it is pure coincidence that we sit on our hands all offseason, then new ownership announced and 48 hours later this kind of trade takes place? 

I don’t think Elias has been sitting on his hands.

So, in your mind, you think this was announced and then Elias called up the Brewers and they did a trade of this magnitude in less than 2 days?