Jackson Holliday 2024

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Yes, he’s elite for his age.  I also think he will be an elite ML player.  

Agreed on the first part.  Hope you’re right on the second.

[OnlyOneOriole]

22 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Believe me, we all long for the good ole days ruled by that bastion of tolerance and liberal democracy the Sun board.

One of the better posts on this board.  Sadly it will go unappreciated.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Show me the scouts saying both of those things. 

Wonder how long I will be waiting for those “scouts” claiming what he said they were claiming.

[Sports Guy]

Is Julio Rodriguez an elite athlete?

[Hank Scorpio]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Is Julio Rodriguez an elite athlete?

Yes. And a bad hitter.

[Three Run Homer]

I know this is going to sound weird, but I wish JH wasn't drawing so many walks.  Don't get me wrong, walks are a good thing, but it's not a good thing for JH to be in the habit of waiting for pitchers to throw four balls.  That works at AAA but major league pitchers have much better control.  

If pitchers just aren't throwing any strikes there's nothing to do (except promote him), but if I were his minor league manager I'd be encouraging JH to be aggressive against pitches in the zone early in the count, rather than trying to coax a walk.  

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

As I said....so many of you guys are basing what you see with JH based on social media hype.  He has been very good as a young player.  I agree.   I don't see elite elite elite.   You are being fooled if you do. 

And I promise you that if JH did not have the last name HOLLIDAY?  In other words not his dads last name but lets say the last name of Jackson Blow?   He would not be as hyped.   Social media these days means a lot. 

I will equate this to Bronny James who just was drafted in the NBAs 2nd round and given a guaranteed contract despite never doing much of....anything.  In fact he averaged 4 points as a Frosh at USC lol.  Give me a break.  

Again...stop thinking of JH as this amazing super duper prospect and look at real life.  What have you seen him do that is so amazing compared to MIller? 

Miller is amazing.  Can help us win now and the next 2 years.

JH?  Is not going to help this year and probably next next as well. 

1: A lot of posters here actually have an milb.tv subscription and use it, or they attend games in person.  So you're off base if you think the prevailing opinion here is based on a few social media posts.

2: Henderson doesn't have a famous dad, and Holliday outproduced him at a younger age in the minors, and people here were about equally hyped about Henderson.

3: Holliday put up a 1.000+ OPS in AA as a 19 year old.  AA is harder than power-5 division 1 college baseball.  That's basically like a freshman putting up 25/10/5.  Not 4 points a game.  Get outta here with your terrible Bronny James comparisons.  If people here were actually blinded by a last name then posters here would have thought that Ryan Ripken was a legitimate prospect.  Believe it or not some of us actually do research on things like this.  We certainly aren't alone in rating Holliday highly, as he was rated #1 or #2 overall by every publication I can think of (and #1 by most of them if I recall.)

4: Holliday for Miller, who isn't guaranteed to be healthy enough to be in the starting rotation over the course of his controlled years, is a ludicrous trade proposal and I'm glad you're not our GM.  You're trading Holliday for an ace.  And not just any ace, an ace without injury concerns with years of control left.  Someone like Chris Sale, when the White Sox traded him for Moncada/Kopech+.  Anything less than an ace is a terrible return.  And I get that Moncada was probably a bad #1 overall prospect, but even if you think Holliday is a bad #1 overall too, you're still undervaluing him to an absurd degree by settling for a reliever with injury concerns, even a shutdown one.

Edited Wednesday at 05:04 by Hallas

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t trade Holliday for Webb. Some of his profile worries me enough not to do that.

But you touched on the Holliday stuff well. I saw an MLbTR chat today and someone suggested trading Holliday and the guy doing the chat was like, I’m amazed at how many Os fans want to trade Holliday because of a bad 36 PA stretch. 
 

People are acting like Holliday is a finished product. I really don’t feel people are grasping the concept of how old he is.

Of course, some of these are the same people who thought GRod was overrated judging by his early ML results, Cowser isn’t good and can’t play defense, Gunnar was overhyped, Kjerstad can’t catch the ball, etc…fans have become essentially twitter…in other words, it’s instant knee jerk reactions and have to get that thought out there as soon as possible.

I don’t have a problem with someone pointing out flaws. Banks has talked about his arm for a year. Others talk about being worried about the leg kick. I get it. But again, he’s 20. He should be a sophomore in college. Instead, he’s putting up numbers in pro ball that Adley didn’t approach until well into his college career. 
 

The Os love how advanced he is at his age. 
 

He will be fine. We will look back on this thread over time and laugh at some of the takes.

I understand why you'd be concerned with Webb's performance but that contract is so juicy that I'd jump on him if he were available.  4/82 plus the remainder of his salary this year is a steal for him, even accounting for the fact that pitcher arb awards have been weirdly low.

Edited Wednesday at 05:14 by Hallas

[Bahama O's Fan]

4 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I know this is going to sound weird, but I wish JH wasn't drawing so many walks.  Don't get me wrong, walks are a good thing, but it's not a good thing for JH to be in the habit of waiting for pitchers to throw four balls.  That works at AAA but major league pitchers have much better control.  

If pitchers just aren't throwing any strikes there's nothing to do (except promote him), but if I were his minor league manager I'd be encouraging JH to be aggressive against pitches in the zone early in the count, rather than trying to coax a walk.  

I agree with this but mostly because the strike zone is different in the minors. They can get used to the robo-umps and then get very frustrated up at the majors when the human errors occur. 

[Safelykept]

23 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I agree with this but mostly because the strike zone is different in the minors. They can get used to the robo-umps and then get very frustrated up at the majors when the human errors occur. 

Or not promote him, which they probably wont. He has a lot do . needs to to get bigger and stronger, and improve his defense. dont see how he fits with this team right now. Even if you had injuries to Mateo and Urias, would not be surprised if Norby was in front of him. I dont think messing with his plate discipline changes any of this. JH is hopefully next year.`

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, Winter said:

Miller is literally nearly the same age as the pitcher on the mound facing us now who the Mariners would hand us and can give near 200 innings + more for Holliday then they'd proceed to laugh at us over doing such a deal lol @ youngest 

If we could get Kirby for Holliday, I think I would do that. Kirby isn’t a free agent until 2029.  Holliday could be great but he could also be Jurickson Profar or Andrew Benintendi.   And don’t tell me how great Profar is this year, he has bounced around for a reason.  The concern with Holliday is his lack of a carrying skill. I thought it was his hit tool, but his inability to defend himself against all sorts of pitches at the MLB level makes me doubt he has a superior hit tool as people claimed.  More likely, he benefited from a superior eye that allowed him to hit mistake pitches.  In the majors, that doesn’t work as well.  

[Warehouse]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This is against a LHP so I’ll cut him some slack but I believe he’s also in this position against RHP.   Look where his butt is and look how far he has to reach, off balance, just to get the end of his bat to reach the outside corner.

The problem, as I see it, and @OnlyOneOriole has touched on, is he does the leg lift and his first move is to open that hip instead of staying closed towards the pitcher.  The hip and butt are out.  He can still do damage on inner half stuff but he loses all his leverage when he has to reach for stuff on the outer half and he’s almost totally vulnerable to outside corner.   

Statcast confirms the eye test that Jackson struggles with the outer third of the zone.  He has a whiff rate of 32% vs  22% MILB average for lefty batters on these pitches and an average launch angle of 4 degrees vs 9 degree league average. His average EV and barrel rate are also slightly under league average. If you include pitches that miss the zone outside, his whiff rate is 42% vs MILB avg of 32%.  

[sportsfan8703]

19/20 he was benching 300lbs and squatting 445lbs  

I think people see his red cheeks and 19 year old face and associate that in negative way.  Dude is a monster.  

He’s like Ohtani and Bryce Harper.  Just eats, sleeps, and breathes baseball.  Nobody is out working that elite athlete.

He sort of gives off Christian McCaffrey vibes other than the obvious condition the one poster laid out to be an “elite athlete”  haha 

 

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Is Julio Rodriguez an elite athlete?

Clearly not.

[Warehouse]

One thing to note is that Jackson made swing tweaks his first three weeks back in Norfolk but then abandoned them because they “didn’t feel great”.

From this Baltimore Banner article: 

“Earlier, as he fiddled, Holliday felt he was “surviving” and “didn’t feel great” about where his swing was, even though he produced at the Triple-A level upon his return. That has since changed. Over the last two weeks, particularly, Holliday’s return to the mechanics he’s more familiar with has helped him get back on track.”

His contact rate really dropped off when he reverted back to his familiar mechanics. I worry that he gave up on the changes too soon.

First three weeks back vs. after (includes tracked pitches and non-bunts)

	PAs	K%	wOBA	xwOBA	whiff %
4/27-5/18	91	19.8%	.366	.349	21.6%
5/19-7/2	118	28.8%	.392	.337	32.1%

 

	PAs	EV	hard hit %	barrel/PA
4/27-5/18	91	89.5	44.4%	4.4%
5/19-7/2	118	89.8	44.6%	4.2%