Who will be our top AL East rival in 2024?

[Frobby]

I confess, I haven’t followed the offseason moves and unanticipated injuries of our AL East rivals very closely.  I know the Yankees traded for Soto, that Judge is having issues with his toe and that Cole is hurt and may miss significant time or worse.   Otherwise, I’m not too up on things.  

I’ve put in a poll about who besides the Orioles will win the most games in the AL East, but I’m really more interested in people’s general thoughts about the likely order of finish and why.   
 

[Sports Guy]

Too many people are sleeping on the Jays imo…but they do have injury issues and bullpen issues. Still, I think they can be very dangerous.

[Malike]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Too many people are sleeping on the Jays imo…but they do have injury issues and bullpen issues. Still, I think they can be very dangerous.

They will have fantastic pitching but they are going to have trouble scoring runs.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Too many people are sleeping on the Jays imo…but they do have injury issues and bullpen issues. Still, I think they can be very dangerous.

They got actively worse and their lineup is doodoo. But also I irrationally hate on the Jays any chance I get. 

Edited March 25 by interloper

[Malike]

This could easily be the Yankees if Rodon actually stays healthy and can pitch like he did. If they sign Montgomery and get Cole back, they're probably the favorite in the division. 

[Spy Fox]

Orioles, Jays, Yankees, Rays, Sox. 

I think the Jays are a strong balanced team, similar to the Orioles in that they are above average all throughout the lineup and rotation. Last year they dominated outside the AL East but killed their chances at the division by losing all four AL East season series, including going 3-10 against the O's. I think they'll bounce back a bit there, get some more out of hitters like Vlad and Varsho, and put up a strong season. Like the O's, the bullpen looks like their biggest vulnerability, but like the O's, I think their balance gives them a high floor. 

The Yankees pitching is a glass house that I think will hold them back from greatness. They drained a lot of their SP depth trading for Soto, so Cole going down is even worse for them than it would have been before. If both of Rodon and Cortes bounce back, they could certainly win this division. But more likely, I think their lack of depth will be exposed. Their offense could be a juggernaut and I like Soto's odds to win his first MVP, as the best player on a team that either wins the third WC or at least stays in it til near the end. 

It's easy to say the Rays always find a way but I see a down year for them. They've lost so much from last year: Franco, McClanahan, and Glasnow is quite a trio of departures. Their hot start last year was before they lost 3 SPs to elbow surgery, and was driven in part by random Steve Pearce like career years from Luke Raley, Isaac Paredes, and Harold Ramirez. I'd predict their offense will regress some, they'll still have a solid pitching staff, but overall they won't have enough juice to get past the 80 to 85 win range. 

The Sox are the weakest, but they aren't that bad and I could see them finishing as high as 3rd if things go right for them and go wrong health-wise for a couple teams above them. Their offense will still mash at times, I think Tyler O'Neill is one of the most underrated additions to the division this year and may thrive in Fenway. But their rotation of Pivetta/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck is five guys who all have good stuff, but haven't been able to succeed for long periods. I think all five of them would be no higher than the 4th/5th SP on a team like the Jays or O's. Unless several of those guys post their best seasons yet, I see a third straight season for them of hovering around .500. 

[HandsomeQuack]

Yanks are the co-favorites along with the O's, but they have their own Bradish situation with Cole. There is no question they have the talent to win 100 games but they have very little pitching depth to deal with any more injuries, and Rodon and Cortes both feel like they have a wide range of outcomes. Their defense might also be a little questionable with Judge in CF and Soto in RF.

Jays are largely the same group minus Chapman; they always seem to underachieve their potential but they could probably make a run at the division if things click for them.

Rays seem to be at their lowest point in a while, but they're the Rays and you can never really count them out.

Red Sox would probably be in the mix in the AL or NL Central, but they don't much talent outside of Casas and Devers and they seem to be playing this as a transitional/retooling year.

That's my order. Gun to head, I would probably put the O's first, just because of Judge's injury risk and New York's lack of SP options if guys get hurt or struggle.

[Oriole1940]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Too many people are sleeping on the Jays imo…but they do have injury issues and bullpen issues. Still, I think they can be very dangerous.

Yes, nearly every year on paper one wonders how they cannot win the Division or be the Wildcard in the AL East.  However, they manage to play just poorly enough to usually not get either one.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Yes, nearly every year on paper one wonders how they cannot win the Division or be the Wildcard in the AL East.  However, they manage to play just poorly enough to usually not get either one.  

They’ve had a wild card spot 3 of the last 4 years.  I feel they’re an underachieving team and that John Schneider is a mediocre manager who doesn’t get the best out of his talent.  But that’s just my opinion.  

[Just Regular]

The Cole and Bradish news keeps it closer for Toronto and Tampa.    I still think its the Yankees.

The Red Sox winter feels clear to me they are playing for 2025, and I won't be shocked if Kenley and/or Chris Martin are on other Clubs soon, just like Chris Sale and John Schreiber.

Boston is in #1 farm system mode as Roman Anthony had a 2023 breakout at near Gunnar scale, and Kyle Teel gives them a poor man's Adley who may or may not strain his shoulder on the first day of Spring Training next year.

Rafael Devers can kind of kick back this season, but C Teel, 1B Casas, 2B Story, SS Mayer, 3B Devers, LF Bleis, CF Rafaela, RF Anthony, DH Yoshida will give good competition in time.    The Orioles and Red Sox will play some high-scoring games.

Is Nick Pivetta a pitcher we trust for August 1?     

[ThisIsBirdland]

We complain quite a bit about the 26th guy on our roster, but the Yankees are apparently having to hold a 3rd catcher and Jahmai Jones due to option issues.

I just feel like this roster is too thin to project winning the AL East. Not that it can’t or won’t happen, there are very dangerous players up there. Could easily derail though. 

[Satyr3206]

Top Rival? Yankees no doubt. Orioles win the Division by at least 5 games. Yankees have no depth.

[Aristotelian]

They are all trash and we are going 162-0 so who cares? 

[maybenxtyr]

I'm going with the Yankees here. They have a chance to have a really great lineup.

 

Generally I would pick Toronto, but I don't know if there's been many teams with as much talent that underachieves year in and out like they do.

[Moose Milligan]

lol the Yankees have Jahmai Jones