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Colton Cowser 2024

sportsfan8703

By sportsfan8703
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Filmstudy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Filmstudy

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think anyone would dislike with those numbers, but I'd argue if he puts up those numbers, he's going to get more than 402 PAs this year. Probably close to 500 PAs. So what does his numbers project to at 500 PAs?

I'd be happy to reproject this every 2 weeks, but one assumption I'm making is that there is some regression to his platoon history.  For that reason, I don't think it's nearly as simple as 500/402 times the numbers I posted because his marginal PAs would be disproportionately vs LHP which would be very likely to hurt his rate stats. 

Also need to project for some injury risk if we're talking O/U numbers.  If you were projecting OBJ's receiving yards last year that was a central assumption, but even a young ballplayer needs that.

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Spy Fox
Spy Fox

You got me curious to look at some of Cowser's zone judgement data. His strike zone awareness in terms of swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls overall is pretty decent. His chase rate is

OsFanInOhio
OsFanInOhio

Cowser beating out that 2 out grounder to first base completely changed this game. That hustle allowed holidays 3 run double and changed it from down 2-0 going into the 7th to being up 3-2. Huge hustl

Malike
Malike

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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Here’s an example of why it isn’t the worst thing in the world if a player is sent down to work on things. Cowser. Bradish. Stowers and Kjerstad now. 

Cowser worked his butt off this offseason it looks like. Kudos to him and the coaching staff. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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4 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I'd be happy to reproject this every 2 weeks, but one assumption I'm making is that there is some regression to his platoon history.  For that reason, I don't think it's nearly as simple as 500/402 times the numbers I posted because his marginal PAs would be disproportionately vs LHP which would be very likely to hurt his rate stats. 

Also need to project for some injury risk if we're talking O/U numbers.  If you were projecting OBJ's receiving yards last year that was a central assumption, but even a young ballplayer needs that.

I think all that’s fair.  I just think that if he really posts an .862 OPS, he’s highly likely to get more than 402 PA.  Gunnar had 445 PA just in games started by RHP last year, plus 177 in games started by lefties, and his platoon splits were pretty big.  I think if Cowser only ends up at 402 PA, it’ll be because he’s not hitting way better than the other OFs - below .800 OPS, for sure.  

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deward Major Leaguer Rising Star

deward

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2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Right now its the easiest a ride the hot hand call gets.    I figure as long as a Games On Base streak is going, he's in, though Cole Ragans lineup this weekend will be a challenge if he's everyday until then.

It would be hard for him to do any worse against Ragans than the lineup did in the first matchup.

He might at least drive up the pitch count a bit.

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Filmstudy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Filmstudy

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38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think all that’s fair.  I just think that if he really posts an .862 OPS, he’s highly likely to get more than 402 PA.  Gunnar had 445 PA just in games started by RHP last year, plus 177 in games started by lefties, and his platoon splits were pretty big.  I think if Cowser only ends up at 402 PA, it’ll be because he’s not hitting way better than the other OFs - below .800 OPS, for sure.  

You're probably right that he'd get more PAs and Hyde would eschew any strict platooning, even if splits are big and that would negatively impact my projection.  Incredibly, .800 OPS for the rest of the season (at the same rate of play he's had to date) would bring him in very close to .862 for the season.

One big thing that has changed since the days of Lowenstein/Roenicke is the number of roster spots for hitters and pitchers.  In 1980, that was approximately 15 position players and 10 pitchers.  Now it's 13 and 13.  The change makes straight platooning far more difficult.

As a point of reference, John Lowenstein in 1982 had only 382 PAs despite being the most productive hitter in baseball on a per AB or PA basis with a 1.071 OPS and 194 OPS+.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Looking forward to seeing how he approaches his at bats tomorrow night.

This is what he did at Norfolk.  He did seem a little more passive tonight.   Swing and swing early.

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