If you were looking to extend Burnes, what would be the max contract offer?

[Sanfran327]

3/110 would be my offer

[ShoelesJoe]

My max offer would be 5/160 with incentives that could make it 5/200, and an opt out for Burns after the second year of the contract. 

[Frobby]

I already guesstimated that it would take at least 7/$252 mm to get him, based on Gerritt Cole’s 9 year deal at $36 mm/yr (Burnes is two years older, hence two fewer years on his deal). This assumes he’s a top-5 CY guy and is fully healthy all year.  And no, I wouldn’t pay it.  You might talk me into 5/$200 mm.  That won’t do it IMO.  

[Say O!]

Comps from last offseason

• Wheeler (age 34) = 3/$126M or $42M AAV, no opt outs, extension begins 2025
• Nola (age 30) = 7/$172M or $25M AAV, no opt outs
• Snell (age 31) = 2/$62M or $31M AAV, 2025 player option
• Gray (age 34) = 3/$75M or $25M AAV
• Montgomery (age 31) = 1/$25M
• Yamamoto (age 25) = 12/$325 or $27M AAV with deferrals, can opt out  after 2029 or 2031

 

[Greg Pappas]

I'd offer a 5/175 also, with two one-year mutual options for 35m each.  So either party could end it after 5 seasons or agree to keep it going longer.

[yark14]

I don't care what the cost.  DR's money, not mine.  Same applies for extensions for Gunnar, Adley, etc.  Give them a blank check for all I care.

Edited May 20 by yark14

[Greg Pappas]

UGH... didn't realize that Burnes, like Henderson and Holliday, is represented by Scott Boras.  This probably makes it a bit less likely we'll see him extend.

Edited May 20 by Greg Pappas

[bpilktree67]

7 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

UGH... didn't realize that Burnes, like Henderson and Holliday, is represented by Scott Boras.  This probably makes it a bit less likely we'll see him extend.

I wonder if the actions of last off season with some of Boras clients may cause them to sign elsewhere a bit earlier for less then they have in the past.  I doubt it will make a difference for the very top guys like Burnes or Gunnar but if i was a mid level top of the rotation guy or number 2 starter like Snell and Montgomery I would be a little more hesitant to hold out and then have to take a much shorter deal.  It was reported that Snell got a few 5 year deal offers but Boras pushed him to wait it out that someone would blink but it never happened, will the free agents this season be a little gun shy on holding out all off season.  

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Would he go for 5/$175?

That would be about where I’d draw the line. 

[Just Regular]

Some of my wariness apart from the general is do Bradish or Grayson have better long range forecasts.

I do feel like Rubenstein over Angelos gives hope two top tier players stay, but for the 2028-2030 part is Burnes even in the top 5 talents?

Certainly before the 2024 rollercoaster ends, Elias will have a lot more information what the young pitchers are made of.

[Billy F-Face3]

All I know is I would get creative with the offer by using opt outs and other tools available to the negotiations.

A guy like Burnes wants to know he's valuable. And he can get that value in number without being locked in or over committed to a contract that is too long for either parties. Most players, when given an opt out, usually opt out.

Because money in the hand now is worth more than money in the hand later and when they see the inflation, they want to go for a new contract the 1st chance they get.

 

I would leverage all these things to reach an agreement that makes Corbin happy, and is still healthy for the franchise.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think this is the correct take.

As for other people who say the Orioles won't even make an offer, that is preposterous for several reasons...

1. The Orioles traded good prospects to get him on 1 year of team control. They must have some hope of being able to court him into liking it here, and hope of the new owners trying to resign him.

2. They invested good prospects to get him. They aren't just going to throw that investment away and just roll over without even trying to resign him.

3. The Orioles even tried to resign Aaron Hicks. They also tendered players (like Ryan McKenna and others) who many thought were on the roster bubble of being cut. Clearly the front office believes in making offers to retain players.

 

All this negativity about not even trying is annoying. Mostly because it's not even based in reality.

Hicks gets the league minimum, why wouldn't they try to sign him as a bench player. The fact they offered the league minimum does not mean they will offer 250M dollars to Burnes. Also, 1 and 2 say the same thing.

Edited May 20 by Malike

[dystopia]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If it’s the best offer he would..but it likely won’t be close to the best offer.

Probably not but after the last offseason I'm not sure how many teams are going to be willing to take on super-risky contracts for pitching, even pitching of Burnes' caliber. 

[Billy F-Face3]

I do think that this past offseason blew up in the face of Boras and his tactics, so we might be witnessing a league wide course correction/backlash against his negotiation tactics. There might be stagnation in the size of contracts being handed out with so many big market teams stuck in the payroll tax pit. And if that is the case, then it’s possible that some of us could be exaggerating expectations on his contract to some degree.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Probably not but after the last offseason I'm not sure how many teams are going to be willing to take on super-risky contracts for pitching, even pitching of Burnes' caliber. 

And this is what is going to be interesting to me going forward.

With the pitching injuries being what they are, is it possible we see teams spending less on pitching or, put in a better way, will we see shorter term/higher AAV deals?

I think that’s something to watch.