Gunnar Henderson - What are the chances?

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Even in your theoretical vacuum of all other considerations, Elite at SS + average at 3B + plus at 2B >>>> than plus at SS, elite at 3B, average to above average at 2B. 

I disagree and Westburg isn’t “just average” at second.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

SG in here like 

 

OnlyOneOriole challenged him to post a photo of himself.   There ya go.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, can you show one scout or someone in and around the game that has said his arm is not good enough to play SS?

Baseball America - “Jackson Holliday’s One Flaw”

Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday is the No. 1 prospect in baseball. He’s the reigning Minor League Player of the Year. The year before that he was High School Player of the Year. He enters 2024 as one of the favorites to be the American League Rookie of the Year.

The 20-year-old is an outstanding prospect and should be one of the better players in baseball over the next decade. It’s hard not to get excited about Holliday’s potential.

But no player is perfect. In Holliday’s case, his one blemish is worth monitoring as he competes for a spot in Baltimore’s Opening Day lineup at second base or shortstop. It also explains why he’s not viewed as a potential third baseman.

Holliday’s arm is short for shortstop at this point in his young career. Players can improve arm strength with healthy doses of long toss or other training techniques. But right now, arm strength is the only big question for the top prospect in baseball.

Holliday has quick hands, a fast exchange and quick release. His body control is excellent and he seems to have the ability to know where everyone is on the diamond, even when he’s running with his back to home plate to try to run down a fly ball.

As a savvy and advanced player for his age, Holliday figures out ways to ensure that his arm is rarely a hindrance. He has mastered a hip slide that allows him to pop up and throw when needed.

But he rarely lets it rip on a throw. 

In his month at Triple-A Norfolk to end the 2023 season, Holliday averaged 78.4 mph on his throws from shortstop, as tracked by MLB Statcast. His fastest throw on any play in the infield was 83.1 mph. The league average for MLB shortstops was 86.3 mph, according to Statcast.

Elly De La Cruz and Masyn Winn are outliers on the upper end of the range. De La Cruz averaged 95 mph on his throws and topped out at 100, while Winn averaged 92.4. 

But of the 65 MLB shortstops who had enough throws to qualify for a Statcast ranking in 2023, just three—Nick Ahmed, Thairo Estrada and David Fletcher—averaged throws slower than Holliday’s 78.4 mph. And 38 of the 65 qualified MLB shortstops had a higher average velocity on their throws than Holliday’s max throw of 83.1 mph.

To get a better understanding of Holliday’s defensive ability, I watched well over 100 plays he made in the minors in 2023, including every televised extra-effort play, every non-routine throw and every ball at shortstop where he fielded the ball moving to his right.

Watching that many plays, I saw a lot of what makes Holliday special. With two outs in a tie game in the 11th inning against Hudson Valley, Holliday saved the game for High-A Aberdeen with his savvy. Spencer Jones was running from second on a slow chopper well to Holliday’s left. Holliday realized he wasn’t going to be able to throw out the runner at first, but he decoyed a throw anyway, then spun and fired home to nab Jones by five feet. Aberdeen then won the game in the 12th.

You see numerous examples of Holliday’s feel for the game. He knows when he can take his time on a throw and when he needs to get rid of it quickly. He seemed to be in sync with a wide variety of double-play partners, which was a necessity for a player who played at four different levels.

Holliday’s range to his left is excellent. He regularly ranges beyond second base to make plays on choppers that would be tough for a second baseman going to his right to turn into outs. He is equally adept at coming in on choppers, fielding and throwing in one fluid and quick motion. Holliday also has soft and sure hands. He made just 13 errors all season.

That range also plays into his ability to cover for his arm. At shortstop, he often sets up shaded significantly toward third base when a righthanded hitter bats with the bases empty. In these situations, he doesn’t have to worry about covering second base on a ball hit to an infielder.

[Say O!]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree and Westburg isn’t “just average” at second.

Clearly. But this is like saying you disagree with the fundamental notion of positional adjustments used in WAR.

[Philip]

If JH can’t throw, why do we want him? If his defense is sub par, shuttle him off to the As for Miller and call it a good day’s work.

And if he CAN throw, why all this “he can’t” malarkey?

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

If JH can’t throw, why do we want him? If his defense is sub par, shuttle him off to the As for Miller and call it a good day’s work.

And if he CAN throw, why all this “he can’t” malarkey?

He can throw, he just doesn't have what some may call a "cannon". But he's capable of playing 2B and SS. Who said his defense was subpar?

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Philip said:

If JH can’t throw, why do we want him? If his defense is sub par, shuttle him off to the As for Miller and call it a good day’s work.

And if he CAN throw, why all this “he can’t” malarkey?

This is silly.  You're not going to get rid of this guy because his arm is a little weak.  

IMO, this is one of the more overblown discussions on here.  So he ends up at second base, so what?  The hit tool is excellent.  I understand that he was drafted to be an SS and that SS is the more premium position but it's not like we don't have that position covered.  If that's the only thing that doesn't pan out for this kid, that he doesn't stand on the right spot on the dirt, then that's a small, small bone to pick.

Is anyone complaining about an infield that's Westy at 3rd, Gunnar at SS and Holliday at 2nd?  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Philip said:

If JH can’t throw, why do we want him? If his defense is sub par, shuttle him off to the As for Miller and call it a good day’s work.

And if he CAN throw, why all this “he can’t” malarkey?

Who said he can’t throw?

[RZNJ]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

This is silly.  You're not going to get rid of this guy because his arm is a little weak.  

IMO, this is one of the more overblown discussions on here.  So he ends up at second base, so what?  The hit tool is excellent.  I understand that he was drafted to be an SS and that SS is the more premium position but it's not like we don't have that position covered.  If that's the only thing that doesn't pan out for this kid, that he doesn't stand on the right spot on the dirt, then that's a small, small bone to pick.

Is anyone complaining about an infield that's Westy at 3rd, Gunnar at SS and Holliday at 2nd?  

SportsGuy.  Elias drafted him 1:1 because he envisioned him as the SS of the future.  It’s his natural birthright.   You can’t do this to the kid!

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

SportsGuy.  Elias drafted him 1:1 because he envisioned him as the SS of the future.  It’s his natural birthright.   You can’t do this to the kid!

I get where he's coming from and that's fine.  But as I said, we've got a guy who's on pace for something like a 10-12 WAR season.  

IMO, this isn't a hill to really die on.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get where he's coming from and that's fine.  But as I said, we've got a guy who's on pace for something like a 10-12 WAR season.  

IMO, this isn't a hill to really die on.

And yet ……….…

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get where he's coming from and that's fine.  But as I said, we've got a guy who's on pace for something like a 10-12 WAR season.  

IMO, this isn't a hill to really die on.

I find it funny how obsessed RZ is with me and this thought.  A guy I haven’t spoken to on this site in close to 2 years. Literally starts a thread because of his obsession.  It’s so sad and pathetic.

One thing I will say, I definitely feel less confident in the thought Holliday ends up at SS because I feel Gunnar looks better at SS this year than he did last year and the numbers back that up.

I think if it ends up that way, it says more about Gunnar than it does Holliday.

Edited Sunday at 03:03 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find it fun those obsessed RZ is with me and this thought.  A guy I haven’t spoken to on this site in close to 2 years. Literally starts a thread because of his obsession.  It’s so sad and pathetic.

One thing I will say, I definitely feel less confident in the thought Holliday ends up at SS because I feel Gunnar looks better at SS this year than he did last year and the numbers back that up.

I think if it ends up that way, it says more about Gunnar than it does Holliday.

Agreed.  Gunnar is becoming a monster, a top 5...maybe even a top 3 player in the game.  His defense is a big part of that.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

 

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find it funny how obsessed RZ is with me and this thought.  A guy I haven’t spoken to on this site in close to 2 years. Literally starts a thread because of his obsession.  It’s so sad and pathetic.

One thing I will say, I definitely feel less confident in the thought Holliday ends up at SS because I feel Gunnar looks better at SS this year than he did last year and the numbers back that up.

I think if it ends up that way, it says more about Gunnar than it does Holliday.

What a dope!   You kept saying Holliday was young.  Maybe he’s working on things maybe he’ll get better.  You know who got better?   The SS who was already way better than Holliday.  The better athlete (shout out to my new bestie @OnlyOneOriole ) with the bazooka arm.   
 

I’m only obsessed with your stupidity.   Stop being stupid and I‘ll stop but what are the chances of that?   About the same as Gunnar moving to 3rd so Holliday can play SS by 2026.    

Edited Sunday at 03:21 by RZNJ

[Filmstudy]

Not 0%, but under 12.5%, which means 0% is the closest-to-the-pin answer.

I think it would take an injury to Gunnar to move him off SS at this point.  As a point of comparison, Cal Ripken did not move off SS until age 35 and averaged 10 Rtot per year at SS.  Gunnar has played just over 1 full season at SS now and has an Rtot of 19 (17 per season).  Was Ripken hurting the O's at SS?  Nope.  While he had a record-setting season in 1984 (AL record for assists at the time), his 3-year peak for defense by Rtot was not until 1989-91.  The Orioles didn't have anyone who would or could replace Ripken there, but moving him would have been a huge mistake in terms of the relative offensive value he was creating with above-average defense.

Henderson is starting from a higher base defensively, so despite the presence of another outstanding hitting prospect, it would take a seismic shift in relative defensive value to move Henderson, which I think is very unlikely in the short-term window offered (by 2026).

I think it's also possible this would piss off Henderson and actually reduce the chance he re-signs with the O's.  For that reason alone, Holliday might need to be BETTER at SS to force such a move.  I don't see any evidence that will happen by 2026.