2024 1st Round Pick (#22): Vance Honeycutt - OF - (Jr) North Carolina (NC)

[oh-wee-ohs]

I know nothing about any of this. But the FO seemed pumped. Almost like that's a guy they would have taken top 5 pick ie Colton and he fell into our laps vibe. 

[Sports Guy]

When we drafted Holliday, one guy I felt would have been worth the pick IF you felt you could fix him was Elijah Green. His profile sounds similar to Honeycutt.  There obviously wasn’t a Holliday there to take over Honeycutt this time but it does show that the Os certainly aren’t scared to go after these types of guys. 
 

I know we saw that with Fabian but he was a little later and cheaper. 
 

Good chance this pick busts but most bottom of the first round picks do and the swing for the fences approach here is welcomed, at least for me.

Its not a HS kid but it’s similar to a project of a HS kid, just with a more proven foundation.

[interloper]

Blood says they were "dreaming" on Honeycutt falling to them, so they seem REALLY excited to get him. 

MLB ranking had him at exactly 22 fwiw.

[Safelykept]

11 hours ago, DocJJ said:

The ultimate risk/reward pick.   The range of outcomes is the entire spectrum from never sees the MLB to MLB superstar....

I'd be happy with a .250 avg 25 HR 60 steals with gold glove defense outcome!

I personally would have preferred Brecht.  I know the extreme risk with any pitcher, but arms like his don't grow on trees....

 

60 Steals? At what level?

[jabba72]

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 65 | Arm: 60 | Field: 70 | Overall: 50

Mlb.com scouting draft grades. Definitely has some elite tools. O's are trying hard to find Mullins replacement.

[LookinUp]

For the record (not that anyone cares), I'm more in for this pick than the others so far. 

There's a significant risk profile, but also significant upside profile. That fits with the draft in a nutshell. Many will miss no matter the org, but I'd rather miss with guys that I think have a chance to be impact ML players if they do hit. This guy fits that profile.

[Just Regular]

Snap poll - by 2030 who has more CF plate appearances for the Orioles - EBJ or Honeycutt?

The 3 picks last night kind of fill in the entire 13 position player group for most of 2026-2027.

C Adley, 1B Basallo, 2B Holliday, SS Gunnar, 3B Westburg, LF Cowser, CF EBJ (platoon), RF Kjerstad, DH Mayo

Bench - OF4 Honeycutt, C Anderson, IF O'Ferrall, Mountcastle Arb3 2026?

Stowers, Beavers, Norby...we'll see July 30th.

[oriolediehard]

I hope this guy will be ready when one of our MLB players becomes a FA.

[Warehouse]

13 hours ago, Malike said:

As was stated earlier if he can bring his K rate down to ~25% he could be a star.

Are there any good examples of college draftees with lower career MLB K% than college K%? I’m guessing it’s pretty rare so I think 25% is a lot to ask.

That being said, if he is Kevin Kiermaier in CF, then he only needs ~80 wRC+ to be an average MLB player.  That’s certainly achievable with a K% between 26% and 36%.

 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Are there any good examples of college draftees with lower career MLB K% than college K%? I’m guessing it’s pretty rare so I think 25% is a lot to ask.

That being said, if he is Kevin Kiermaier in CF, then he only needs ~80 wRC+ to be an average MLB player.  That’s certainly achievable with a K% between 26% and 36%.

 

Saw someone make a Jose Siri comp.  I think that’s a good comp.   Siri has a career K rate of 34.7% but is a 2 WAR  player.   Hopefully, Honeycutt is a little more hitterish.

 

[Sports Guy]

I probably missed it but has anyone said anything about his plate discipline?  He has swing and miss but are the swing decisions good or is he just some free swinger that occasionally makes great contact?

[Rbiggs2525]

Saw Honeycutt finished his season with 14 HR in last 75 AB. That’s a HR every 5.3 AB. 

[Sydnor]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I probably missed it but has anyone said anything about his plate discipline?  He has swing and miss but are the swing decisions good or is he just some free swinger that occasionally makes great contact?

I think someone posted an analysis earlier in the thread that called him a guess hitter. I haven’t seen much about his plate discipline, mostly just analysis that he has pitch recognition issues in addition to holes in his swing.

Longenhagen: A swing change might remedy this but there are also breaking ball recognition issues here; Honeycutt had a 56% contact rate against sliders in 2024.

Law: His bigger issue is pitch and ball/strike recognition, as he swung and missed on nearly a third of the pitches he saw, including a 21 percent whiff rate on pitches in the zone.

[Warehouse]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Saw someone make a Jose Siri comp.  I think that’s a good comp.   Siri has a career K rate of 34.7% but is a 2 WAR  player.   Hopefully, Honeycutt is a little more hitterish.

 

Yes, I think that is what the front office is projecting for base case - Jose Siri/Drew Stubbs type player that’s worth 2 WAR per year given defense. With hope that the bat is more Brent Rooker/Miguel Sano/Joey Gallo/Nolan Gorman, but with a realistic outlook on ability to bring down the Ks.  That might not sound exciting, but for 22nd pick it’s good value.

Scouting/player dev potential also is likely to play a greater role in this type of pick, so hopefully they see some very specific improvement opportunities.

 

[Warehouse]

Just now, Warehouse said:

Yes, I think that is what the front office is projecting for base case - Jose Siri/Drew Stubbs type player that’s worth 2 WAR per year given defense. With hope that the bat is more Brent Rooker/Miguel Sano/Joey Gallo/Nolan Gorman, but with a realistic outlook on ability to bring down the Ks.  That might not sound exciting, but for 22nd pick it’s good value.

Scouting/player dev potential also is likely to play a greater role in this type of pick, so hopefully they see some very specific improvement opportunities.

 

For reference, below are Career stats since 2014 (min 300 PAs) for players K% at least 32%, plus NCAA K% in final year pre-draft.

Player	MLB K%	wRC+	NCAA K%*
Matt Wallner	34.9%	136	17.5%
Brent Rooker	32.5%	129	18.8%
Edouard Julien	32.2%	123	25.9%
Miguel Sano	36.5%	114	n/a
Ryan Schimpf	33.3%	114	15.3%
James Outman	32.7%	110	22.0%
Chris Carter	32.6%	110	n/a
Luke Raley	32.1%	110	5.7%
Juan Francisco	36.3%	108	n/a
Ryan Noda	33.9%	108	30.0%
Jarrett Parker	32.0%	108	19.2%
Nolan Gorman	33.9%	107	n/a
Joey Gallo	38.1%	107	n/a
Patrick Wisdom	36.7%	106	17.8%
Brandon Marsh	32.7%	106	n/a
Elly de la Cruz	32.3%	105	n/a
Oneil Cruz	33.2%	104	n/a
Keston Hiura	35.9%	103	14.6%
Tom Murphy	32.1%	103	17.7%
Edwin Rios	33.7%	100	13.6%
Will Benson	35.1%	99	n/a
Alex Avila	33.8%	98	19.6%
Tyler Austin	36.9%	96	n/a
Blake Sabol	33.0%	96	15.0%
Trayce Thompson	32.7%	96	n/a
Jose Siri	34.7%	95	n/a
Chris Davis	34.5%	95	n/a
Drew Stubbs	35.6%	94	20.8%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	34.0%	94	n/a
Matt Davidson	34.8%	92	n/a
Bobby Dalbec	36.8%	90	30.7%
Daniel Palka	34.7%	90	21.4%
Drew Waters	32.8%	90	n/a

 

*final year pre-draft