Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[Just Regular]

I was surprised how much fWAR loved 2022 Jorge Mateo.    Looking back over Orioles Bats the last few seasons, with 5 weeks to go it "only" has Santander on a career year level with 2022 Mateo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=1&team=2&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024

Kjerstad concussion questions if present in winter surely peg him at a low value point so he probably won't move then.   Retaining "both Ryans" would be my guess if Elias wants some extra RF security in early 2025.

[wildcard]

I don't think Elias would expect Kjerstad to replace Santander's offensive performance.   Maybe Kjerstad playing a average RF defensively and having a decent offensive year.

The replacement of Santander's  offense would come from the  combined improved performance from Cowser, Holliday, Westburg and Mayo.

I could see Kjerstad being Plan A in RF and O'Hearn being Plan B.   Mayo moving to  1B/DH along with Mounty.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Link isn’t working for me.  What does it say?

It’s just him hitting the homer with the titanic song in the background 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

My working assumption is that Santander’s 2025 will look more like his 2022-23 seasons than 2024.   That’s still not bad though.   

I already ran a bunch of comps in another thread, and there’s a decent chance Santander could be productive for another 3 years (though that’s not guaranteed).  Beyond that, he’d be in outlier territory.   
 

He could absolutely be good for a few more years, but I think his performance this year, coupled with the current league-wide need for offense, will allow him to secure at least a 4 year deal with an AAV in the neighborhood of $20 million, maybe even 5 years if the bidding gets intense and a big market team decides to flex their financial muscles to get a deal across the finish line. 

Also, I did see that thread. Good work as usual, and a good argument for not going all out to re-sign him (i.e. matching a 4 or 5 year offer from someone else) as many posters would like us to do. If he can be had for the 3 year, $60 million dollar deal the OP suggested, then I would at least consider that, but I think he will handily beat that on the open market and that he and his agent know that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias would expect Kjerstad to replace Santander's offensive performance

I think he's also smart enough to not expect Anthony Santander to replace Anthony Santander's 2024 offensive performance.

[Three Run Homer]

It's likely that Kjerstad would not reproduce Santander's 2024 production next season.   But continued improvement from young hitters like Cowser and Holliday can easily make up for the loss of production from RF.  Meanwhile, the money we save from not signing Santander to an overpay can be used to improve our pitching.   I'd rather overpay for Roki Sasaki than Anthony Santander, and it's not even close.   

[Camden_yardbird]

I think he signs a 5/$110.  It's basically a shorter version of Olsons deal.

[KojiSplit]

Someone will pay him and it better not be the O’s (can’t see it happening anyway). I’ve been a big Slamtander fan but he’s such a one dimensional player and he isn’t someone you can trust in a big spot with the way he presses and expands the zone.

Thank you Anthony and GL elsewhere.

[Sanity Check]

Just now, KojiSplit said:

Someone will pay him and it better not be the O’s (can’t see it happening anyway). I’ve been a big Slamtander fan but he’s such a one dimensional player and he isn’t someone you can trust in a big spot with the way he presses and expands the zone.

Thank you Anthony and GL elsewhere.

The Orioles are not signing him to a long term deal.  Its been proven we can't win in the postseason with him.  We need guys who can consistently put the ball in play to at least give us a chance.

[Oriole4Life]

Let him walk. That pop up with the bases loaded and no outs sort of encapsulates the entire postseason for us. It was a pathetic effort and we ended up with squat in a clutch situation. 

The HRs are cool but he doesn't hit for average and is only getting older. And he sucks in the playoffs. Goodbye.

[clapdiddy]

I'd offer the QO.   Someone will pay him.

[tntoriole]

I am not inclined to sign him to an overpriced deal.  Bye! 

[iiiput]

The problem with not re-signing him is we have no obvious replacement. Kjerstad and Mayo are both players that don’t look as though they’ll be able to do anything at the plate in the near future and both are defensive liabilities at any position. O’hearn is another guy who makes us worse when he plays in the field (and he’s a FA too). So to make the team competitive next year, we’ll likely need to sign someone to play RF. 

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, iiiput said:

The problem with not re-signing him is we have no obvious replacement. Kjerstad and Mayo are both players that don’t look as though they’ll be able to do anything at the plate in the near future and both are defensive liabilities at any position. O’hearn is another guy who makes us worse when he plays in the field (and he’s a FA too). So to make the team competitive next year, we’ll likely need to sign someone to play RF. 

Doesn't matter we are back in rebuild mode, take the QO pick, lose 90 games next year, get more picks, make the playoffs as a wild card in 2027, lose again, rinse and repeat.