Vance Honeycutt

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t equate highest ceiling with BPA nor do most ML draft rooms, apparently, otherwise Honeycutt and Brecht both would have gone a lot higher.   You can argue that he was BPA and the Orioles apparently thought so.   That doesn’t make it a fact.

”Honeycutt was, without any doubt, the most talented player at 1-22 in this past draft. It was the right pick, if your philosophy is really BPA.”

So, most talented?   Probably.    BPA?   Debatable.

Ok. I never said highest ceiling, which he may have. Most talented, most tools. For the Orioles, and what they do best, he was the BPA. It’s a good match. This is what I said in the full context. Debate is good. 

You and I actually do not disagree on the players we liked this draft, though I thought Honeycutt would be gone by 1-22. I actually did not like the O’Farrell pick, at first. I thought that was just a bit of a reach, but they really like him. The Anderson pick was another one where I scratched my head. I did like the Overn pick a lot. They went college up the middle guys with the top four picks. Philosophically, I get it. They like their data gathered during the college years. I also get the critics of it.

Mike Elias and his staff have great conviction with what they believe. That is admirable to me, even if we think it’s wacky. Too many people think one way, and then act another out of fear of criticism. The criticism is fair. I have said my share this year. 

 

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I just don't get why Law and other say this. Who is this guy with big time swing and miss that they sprinkled their hitting fairy dust on and became a good major league hitter?

 

Respectfully, Westburg had one of the highest swing and miss rates of any first round pick in the past decade. Mayo had considerable swing and miss concerns as well as a raw HS kid. Kyle Stowers had considerable swing and miss, still does…lol.

IMO, their reputation is more about their ability to turn out good hitters, overall. I think they have produced more quality hitters than any other organization in the past 4-5 years. Some will miss in every organization. Not every guy is going to be able to make the adjustments they need to make. Fabian is a glaring example, along with the others you pointed out. The criticism is fair, but so are the accolades. 

The list of accomplished hitters is long. Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, Holliday, Bradfield, maybe Hernaiz, and so on. They also have helped guys like Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Urias and O’Hearn get the most out of their ability.

Some will say it was about their higher picks. However, a lot of high picks do not make it, so it isn’t like a guarantee that any of them would have made it in another situation. The previous Orioles development group would not have had this success, IMO.

I will say some of those hitters they have tutored would have been very good in many environments. However, you cannot just subtract them from the equation. I think their rep is fair. 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Respectfully, Westburg had one of the highest swing and miss rates of any first round pick in the past decade. Mayo had considerable swing and miss concerns as well as a raw HS kid. Kyle Stowers had considerable swing and miss, still does…lol.

IMO, their reputation is more about their ability to turn out good hitters, overall. I think they have produced more quality hitters than any other organization in the past 4-5 years. Some will miss in every organization. Not every guy is going to be able to make the adjustments they need to make. Fabian is a glaring example, along with the others you pointed out. The criticism is fair, but so are the accolades. 

The list of accomplished hitters is long. Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, Holliday, Bradfield, maybe Hernaiz, and so on. They also have helped guys like Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Urias and O’Hearn get the most out of their ability.

Some will say it was about their higher picks. However, a lot of high picks do not make it, so it isn’t like a guarantee that any of them would have made it in another situation. The previous Orioles development group would not have had this success, IMO.

I will say some of those hitters they have tutored would have been very good in many environments. However, you cannot just subtract them from the equation. I think their rep is fair. 

Not sure what you’re talking about.   Stowers hit 9 homers and struck out about 13% his junior year at Stanford.   In his first pro summer in 55 games he hit just 6 homers and struck out 23%.   They proceeded to turn him into a power hitter who struck out 30% of the time.

They drafted Colton Cowser who was more of a contact/hit guy and turned him into a power hitter who strikes out a lot.

Jordan Westburg basically struck out about 21% his last two years in college.   They helped him improve his power, not his contact.

Please show us one power hitter with contact issues (Fabian, Horvath) who they turned into a better hitter.

Edited September 2 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

19 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

But back to VH (I'm close to calling him Van Halen, or Van Honeycutt)

Walk-up song should be "Jump" or "Running with the Devil".

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Walk-up song should be "Jump" or "Running with the Devil".

Moose is a fan of the Gary Cherone era.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

I think he was worth the risk where the O's were picking.  The odds are already low anyone drafted that late will be become an everyday player.  4th OF types are always gettable on the waiver wire.  So taking a risk on someone with 4 big tools and hoping if he develops his hit tool is worth it. If it does, he ends up a solid ML regular and maybe more.  

I would of took Brecht though with our second pick.  

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Moose is a fan of the Gary Cherone era.

False. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Not sure what you’re talking about.   Stowers hit 9 homers and struck out about 13% his junior year at Stanford.   In his first pro summer in 55 games he hit just 6 homers and struck out 23%.   They proceeded to turn him into a power hitter who struck out 30% of the time.

They drafted Colton Cowser who was more of a contact/hit guy and turned him into a power hitter who strikes out a lot.

Jordan Westburg basically struck out about 21% his last two years in college.   They helped him improve his power, not his contact.

Please show us one power hitter with contact issues (Fabian, Horvath) who they turned into a better hitter.

Just adding on to this.  Baseball Americas draft report actually said that Mayo had solid contact ability.   Of course, somehow I’m the bad guy refuting the argument that Westburg, Stowers, or Mayo had big swing and miss issues when drafted and the Orioles fixed them.   When someone says Westburg had some of the biggest swing and miss issues in the last 10 years of the draft, is it too much to ask for some actual proof of this?

 

View Draft Report

Mayo is a big, physical third baseman with a 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame and raw power and arm strength to match it. He also has a solid track record of hitting against some of the better pitchers in the 2020 class, with solid zone recognition and a mature approach at the plate. Mayo has tinkered a bit with his setup. Last summer he shifted his weight significantly back on his right foot, which put him in inconsistent launch positions and hurt his rhythm, but he’s since gone back to a 50-50 weight split. He still is more herky jerky in the box than fluid, and scouts wonder if that will prevent him from consistently tapping into his plus raw power despite a solid eye. He’s an obvious swing-change candidate if he gets to pro ball, but he does have solid contact ability. Defensively, Mayo has one of the strongest arms in the 2020 class, an easy plus cannon with tremendous carry. He’ll need to improve both his footwork and hands to stick at the position though, particularly when major league third basemen are required to handle more ground in a heavily shifted era. His raw tools and physicality are among the loudest in the 2020 prep class, but he could be a tough sign away from Florida. If he gets to campus in Gainesville he could tremendously improve his draft stock by tapping into his power against SEC competition.”

[RZNJ]

Here’s Westburg’s 2020 draft report in Baseball America.   If you’re looking for the part of having the most swing and miss in the last 10 years of the draft, you won’t find it in there.

”500).

View Draft Report

An impressive athlete with plus speed and plus raw power, Westburg has steadily improved as a hitter throughout his college career and had an exceptional summer in the Cape Cod League in 2019. In 25 games with Hyannis, Westburg hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs and six doubles—enough to rank as the No. 4 prospect in the league. Westburg has been an aggressive hitter at times, with a tendency to strike out at a high clip, but he has made big strides in that department. After whiffing in 25 percent of his plate appearances as a freshman, Westburg cut that to 21 percent as a sophomore and then again to 18 percent through a small, 14-game sample in 2020. Still, scouts think he might wind up as more of a fringe-average hitter because of those concerns. While he does have plus raw power, he’s never been able to fully tap into that during games, and his six home runs in 2019 were the most he’s managed in a season. He’s been more of a doubles and gap hitter, but has a 6-foot-3, 203-pound frame that could add more weight and allow him to take a step forward in that area. Defensively, Westburg has a shot to stick at shortstop. He’s not the elite defender that scouts want to see at the position, but he’s quick, athletic and has a strong enough arm. Depending on the situation around him, he could likely handle the position, but a move to third base or second might be a better long-term fit. If a team thinks he has a chance to be an average hitter, he could go in the back of the first round, with good supplemental tools to fall back on.”

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Walk-up song should be "Jump" or "Running with the Devil".

Co-sign “Jump” but would really love if walked out to “Eruption”

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s Westburg’s 2020 draft report in Baseball America.   If you’re looking for the part of having the most swing and miss in the last 10 years of the draft, you won’t find it in there.

”500).

View Draft Report

An impressive athlete with plus speed and plus raw power, Westburg has steadily improved as a hitter throughout his college career and had an exceptional summer in the Cape Cod League in 2019. In 25 games with Hyannis, Westburg hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs and six doubles—enough to rank as the No. 4 prospect in the league. Westburg has been an aggressive hitter at times, with a tendency to strike out at a high clip, but he has made big strides in that department. After whiffing in 25 percent of his plate appearances as a freshman, Westburg cut that to 21 percent as a sophomore and then again to 18 percent through a small, 14-game sample in 2020. Still, scouts think he might wind up as more of a fringe-average hitter because of those concerns. While he does have plus raw power, he’s never been able to fully tap into that during games, and his six home runs in 2019 were the most he’s managed in a season. He’s been more of a doubles and gap hitter, but has a 6-foot-3, 203-pound frame that could add more weight and allow him to take a step forward in that area. Defensively, Westburg has a shot to stick at shortstop. He’s not the elite defender that scouts want to see at the position, but he’s quick, athletic and has a strong enough arm. Depending on the situation around him, he could likely handle the position, but a move to third base or second might be a better long-term fit. If a team thinks he has a chance to be an average hitter, he could go in the back of the first round, with good supplemental tools to fall back on.”

It says in there scouts thought he’d be a fringe average hitter due to contact concerns. And that was against much weaker competition. Good stuff. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Just adding on to this.  Baseball Americas draft report actually said that Mayo had solid contact ability.   Of course, somehow I’m the bad guy refuting the argument that Westburg, Stowers, or Mayo had big swing and miss issues when drafted and the Orioles fixed them.   When someone says Westburg had some of the biggest swing and miss issues in the last 10 years of the draft, is it too much to ask for some actual proof of this?

 

View Draft Report

Mayo is a big, physical third baseman with a 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame and raw power and arm strength to match it. He also has a solid track record of hitting against some of the better pitchers in the 2020 class, with solid zone recognition and a mature approach at the plate. Mayo has tinkered a bit with his setup. Last summer he shifted his weight significantly back on his right foot, which put him in inconsistent launch positions and hurt his rhythm, but he’s since gone back to a 50-50 weight split. He still is more herky jerky in the box than fluid, and scouts wonder if that will prevent him from consistently tapping into his plus raw power despite a solid eye. He’s an obvious swing-change candidate if he gets to pro ball, but he does have solid contact ability. Defensively, Mayo has one of the strongest arms in the 2020 class, an easy plus cannon with tremendous carry. He’ll need to improve both his footwork and hands to stick at the position though, particularly when major league third basemen are required to handle more ground in a heavily shifted era. His raw tools and physicality are among the loudest in the 2020 prep class, but he could be a tough sign away from Florida. If he gets to campus in Gainesville he could tremendously improve his draft stock by tapping into his power against SEC competition.”

Then there is this from MLBpipeline’s write up in 2022. 
 

Standing 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, Mayo uses a clean swing path and freakish raw strength to flat-out crush the ball. He already makes louder contact than almost any other player in the Orioles system, consistently ranking near the top of their exit velocity readings during 2020 instructional camp, where he showed significant bat speed and light-tower power in batting practice and simulated games. The concerns crop up regarding whether he’ll hit enough to get to that power on a consistent basis. There’s enough swing and miss to his game to potentially drown out Mayo’s loud tools when exposed to professional pitching.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/orioles/

Honeycutt has the most concerns. Sure. But the fellas I named had some issues with swing and miss as well. Perhaps it wasn’t thought of the same in all circles. Guys with big power generally have some swing and miss. It is not a mystery. 

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Not sure what you’re talking about.   Stowers hit 9 homers and struck out about 13% his junior year at Stanford.   In his first pro summer in 55 games he hit just 6 homers and struck out 23%.   They proceeded to turn him into a power hitter who struck out 30% of the time.

They drafted Colton Cowser who was more of a contact/hit guy and turned him into a power hitter who strikes out a lot.

Jordan Westburg basically struck out about 21% his last two years in college.   They helped him improve his power, not his contact.

Please show us one power hitter with contact issues (Fabian, Horvath) who they turned into a better hitter.

Reference Jordan Westburg, @LookitsPuck posted this earlier in this thread. He literally has one of the highest k rates of any first rounder in the last decade, which is what I said. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Trying to twist things again?
 

Edited September 3 by Jammer7

[Baseball fandom]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think Honeycutt’s floor is that he doesn’t hit enough to even have a career as an extra outfielder.   I see extra outfielder as his most likely outcome.    
 

You’re right about Brecht and injury even though he’s got a clean history from what I can remember.   If Brecht is a total mess, he doesn’t make it at all.   His ceiling is TOR but there’s also a fall back as a power reliever.   It might be optimistic to call that his most likely outcome but I see that as more realistic than Honeycutt hitting enough to be a regular CF.

Now, I could be 100% wrong.  Just going by what I’ve read and the small amounts of video.  In fact, I didn’t see anything I didn’t like about Honeycutt on video but you can’t ignore the stats and what they tell you.

We took Horvath from the exact same school in 2023 with a very similar offensive profile (I admittedly loved the pick) and he didn’t perform well this year and even worse after the trade.   That’s a bad omen.    But kudos to the Orioles for not letting that phase them one bit.   They obviously have the strength of their convictions.

Unfortunately, since Norby in 2021, I haven’t seen one college player, which includes Fabian, Beavers, Wagner, Horvath, etc., look like they are going to be ML regulars.    Bradfield is a different animal and he’s got a chance.

If we are so great at developing hitters from guys with hit concerns, where are the success stories from the 2021-2023 drafts?    If your M.O. is positón players then you’ve got to crank enough out to fill (accomplished but mostly with top 5 picks) the roster, replenish the roster (this is a concern) and have enough to trade for the pitching you didn’t develop.

 

Good write up. Exactly I agree with everything you said.  Tony himself I believe has said that he hasn't been overly impressed with Elias drafts the last 3 years himself if I'm not mistaken. 

Edited September 3 by Baseball fandom

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Reference Jordan Westburg, @LookitsPuck posted this earlier in this thread. He literally has one of the highest k rates of any first rounder in the last decade, which is what I said. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Trying to twist things again?
 

Your comeback on Mayo who was drafted in 2020 was to give us a report from 2022, after he’d been in the system for a year?    You are trying to say I’m twisting things.

The whole argument is about drafting guys with swing and miss issues and turning them into something.   I posted a pre-draft report that said contact wasn’t a big issue even though you gave the impression it was an issue when he was drafted.

Someone else posts a list of “notables” where Westburg is 6th on the list with a 22% K rate.    You said he had some of the biggest swing and miss from the last 10 years.  I posted a BA report that made note of him cutting his K rate from 25% to 21% to 18%.    Honeycutt was 27.4% this year!

Interesting that you didn’t even mention Stowers.   Your memory is either extremely faulty or the only other explanation is that you just make stuff up.   If I were you, I’d cop to the bad memory.

I showed reports and stats from the 3 guys you mentioned that shows there were no huge red flags on swing and miss when they were drafted unlike Honeycutt who does have huge red flags.

It’s apples and oranges.     Your comparison was very much incorrect, at best.   Looks like you’d rather double down instead of just admitting you got it wrong.   Feels like dejavú.

And that weird woke comment about the Athletic.  LOL

I just like getting as much information as possible.   I couldn’t tell you which way the Athletic leans.   I don’t really care.   I like getting Law’s takes as well as BA and a bunch of others.   Last time I heard the word “woke” was from OnlyOneOriole and he gone.