Elias…DFA Kimbrel now!! (9/18: Kimbrel DFA'd, Baker recalled)

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, HowAboutThat said:

I asked this earlier in the thread but I want to clarify: the Os have to pay the buyout, whether they DFA him or not, unless someone claims him?

So if they put him on release waivers, so he can continue to play with the team( which would be more likely than a straight DFA)but no one claims him, he still gets his one million dollar buyout?

Yes.

[Ohfan67]

I expect this will be Kimbrel’s last full year in the majors. 

[HowAboutThat]

It’s too late for this season, but I hope the takeaway from this Kimbrel fiasco is that you don’t sign old declining pitchers to be the main piece of your rotation or bullpen.

Sign them as supplemental pieces, and sign them cheap. That’s ok.

But signing one old guy with deteriorating performance, for 14 million smackers, to be your closer, and then closing the shop for the day, is something we hope to not see again.

And Kimbrel has a negative WAR, so it’s not like he’s “technically” worth his salary..

This season has cost him Hall votes. He won’t make the second ballot, I bet.

[Gurgi]

I think they dont DFA him till the season is over.  I think it might have something to do with the politics of guys who might make the Hall of Fame.  You dont dump them as easily as some three year guy who is sucking it up.  You let them go out standing up.   If only for the reason that future free agents might remember how you did him.

But if we squeak into the playoffs we got to leave him off the roster.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I think they dont DFA him till the season is over.  I think it might have something to do with the politics of guys who might make the Hall of Fame.  You dont dump them as easily as some three year guy who is sucking it up.  You let them go out standing up.   If only for the reason that future free agents might remember how you did him.

But if we squeak into the playoffs we got to leave him off the roster.  

Isn’t leaving him off the playoff roster kind of embarrassing too?    I don’t see a huge difference between that and a DFA.    They’re both bad.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

I expect this will be Kimbrel’s last full year in the majors. 

I think he very much wants to finish higher on the save list and will hang around a bit more.

[Can_of_corn]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Isn’t leaving him off the playoff roster kind of embarrassing too?    I don’t see a huge difference between that and a DFA.    They’re both bad.

Dodgers left him off.  

[oriolediehard]

How many more losses by Kimbrel before he is DFA'd?

[Three Run Homer]

I think some people are underestimating how damaging it is to have Kimbrel on the roster.  Since July 14, he has had 7 appearances when he has had a material negative effect on win probability:

--July 14 vs NYY.  Blows the save in the 9th; gets a vulture win after O's miracle comeback.

--July 25 vs. MIA.  Blows save giving up 3 ER in 9th, has to be bailed out by Cano.  O's win in 10th.

--July 26 vs. SD:  Enters tie game in 9th, gives up 2 runs, O's lose

--August 11 vs. TBR:  enters tie game in 8th, gives up run, O's lose

--August 16 vs. BOS:  enters in 7th with O's losing 8-6 but fighting their way back.  Gives up 3 runs, O's lose 12-10.

--August 21 vs. NYM:  enters tie game in 7th, gives up HR, O's wind up losing in 9th

--Last night's game

 

That's 7 disasters in 15 appearances.  

Relievers are not like utility infielders.  There is nowhere to hide them.  If you have them on your roster, they will inevitably come in to pitch high leverage innings.  As long as Kimbrel is around, he will continue to lose games for the Orioles.  

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Isn’t leaving him off the playoff roster kind of embarrassing too?    I don’t see a huge difference between that and a DFA.    They’re both bad.

Not embarrassing at all to have a regular-season or playoff roster limited to your best players. It should be (don't know whether it would be) embarrassing to keep Kimbrel on the roster and exclude someone more useful because it would look bad to treat a one-time star closer that way. 

[sevastras]

Flat out release, not dfa. Orioles pay the last month and the $1mm buyout. People(and Angelos over the years) have a problem with sunk cost. You paid the money or have to pay the money no matter what, you aren’t getting any benefit so release them and be done with it. Chris Davis was a prime example. 
This thread kind of existed 3 months ago. Back then it was reactionary, now he has proven to be mostly ineffective and something should be done. If he is on the team, hyde will use him. Buck use to do the same things with his vets. Don’t give Hyde the option. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I expect this will be Kimbrel’s last full year in the majors. 

It might be.  I'd say there's a 50/50 chance...I don't see him wanting to retire, but I also don't know how much interest there's going to be in picking him up.  I can see a scenario as a non-roster invite somewhere...whether he makes a club is anyone's guess.  If he's not on a team next year, IMO, it's because he didn't make a team...I don't see him retiring.  

2 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

 

This season has cost him Hall votes. He won’t make the second ballot, I bet.

This seems a bit silly. 

I'd like to think that Hall voters are more intelligent than that and wouldn't hold a bad season at the tail end of his career against him when it comes to the Hall.  A lot of guys hang on longer than they need to...either they want to compile some more counting stats or just love the game and want to play as long as they can before someone tells them they can't.  I've yet to hear any BBWAA writer explain not voting for someone because of their last year or two...I've definitely heard of voters NOT voting for a guy because their second half of their career isn't as good as their first....but I don't think anyone held Dennis Eckersley's last few seasons against him when voting him in.

Kimbrel is an all-time great closer.  9 time all star, has won all the reliever awards that are out there, rookie of the year, lead the league in saves 4 seasons in a row, racked up a bunch of saves, received Cy Young votes in some seasons...played on really good teams.

If anything, the reason to not vote for him is that his postseason ERA is 4.50....even that number doesn't tell the whole story, there have been some outright dominant postseason performances mixed in with some large blowups.  

The other reason to not vote for him (which is a little silly) would be that he hopped around between a lot of teams at the end of his career...that, IMO, highlights what people think of his value at the end...no one wanted him to stay long enough, but someone saw enough to give him a shot.  It's the same reason why Kenny Lofton isn't in the Hall of Fame but Derek Jeter is despite ~3.0 less bWAR.  Lofton played for a ton of teams at the end.

Either way, I think he makes the Hall of Fame...first ballot?  Depends on who else is on that ballot and how closers/relievers are valued when that vote comes around.  If he's not elected on the first ballot, I'm not upset about it.

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

I think some people are underestimating how damaging it is to have Kimbrel on the roster. 

I don't think anyone here is underestimating that.  

If Kimbrel didn't blow half of the saves he did or didn't have half the flareups he's had, there's a strong chance we're in first place.

[sevastras]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It might be.  I'd say there's a 50/50 chance...I don't see him wanting to retire, but I also don't know how much interest there's going to be in picking him up.  I can see a scenario as a non-roster invite somewhere...whether he makes a club is anyone's guess.  If he's not on a team next year, IMO, it's because he didn't make a team...I don't see him retiring.  

This seems a bit silly. 

I'd like to think that Hall voters are more intelligent than that and wouldn't hold a bad season at the tail end of his career against him when it comes to the Hall.  A lot of guys hang on longer than they need to...either they want to compile some more counting stats or just love the game and want to play as long as they can before someone tells them they can't.  I've yet to hear any BBWAA writer explain not voting for someone because of their last year or two...I've definitely heard of voters NOT voting for a guy because their second half of their career isn't as good as their first....but I don't think anyone held Dennis Eckersley's last few seasons against him when voting him in.

Kimbrel is an all-time great closer.  9 time all star, has won all the reliever awards that are out there, rookie of the year, lead the league in saves 4 seasons in a row, racked up a bunch of saves, received Cy Young votes in some seasons...played on really good teams.

If anything, the reason to not vote for him is that his postseason ERA is 4.50....even that number doesn't tell the whole story, there have been some outright dominant postseason performances mixed in with some large blowups.  

The other reason to not vote for him (which is a little silly) would be that he hopped around between a lot of teams at the end of his career...that, IMO, highlights what people think of his value at the end...no one wanted him to stay long enough, but someone saw enough to give him a shot.  It's the same reason why Kenny Lofton isn't in the Hall of Fame but Derek Jeter is despite ~3.0 less bWAR.  Lofton played for a ton of teams at the end.

Either way, I think he makes the Hall of Fame...first ballot?  Depends on who else is on that ballot and how closers/relievers are valued when that vote comes around.  If he's not elected on the first ballot, I'm not upset about it.

I don't think anyone here is underestimating that.  

If Kimbrel didn't blow half of the saves he did or didn't have half the flareups he's had, there's a strong chance we're in first place.

Agree on the HOF stuff. Just because a player plays longer than they should, it doesn’t discount the rest of their career. I never liked him, mostly because he was a Red Sock and his weird deal looking in for the sign, but I had to cheer for him as an Oriole. He has stunk as an Oriole and I still don’t like him but he is definitely a HOF reliever given the career he has put together. 
To your last point, the Os are definitely in first if he didn’t shit the bed 4 or 5 times less than he has throughout the season. 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he very much wants to finish higher on the save list and will hang around a bit more.

But how many save opportunities do the White Sox get?

[HowAboutThat]

56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It might be.  I'd say there's a 50/50 chance...I don't see him wanting to retire, but I also don't know how much interest there's going to be in picking him up.  I can see a scenario as a non-roster invite somewhere...whether he makes a club is anyone's guess.  If he's not on a team next year, IMO, it's because he didn't make a team...I don't see him retiring.  

This seems a bit silly. 

I'd like to think that Hall voters are more intelligent than that and wouldn't hold a bad season at the tail end of his career against him when it comes to the Hall.  A lot of guys hang on longer than they need to...either they want to compile some more counting stats or just love the game and want to play as long as they can before someone tells them they can't.  I've yet to hear any BBWAA writer explain not voting for someone because of their last year or two...I've definitely heard of voters NOT voting for a guy because their second half of their career isn't as good as their first....but I don't think anyone held Dennis Eckersley's last few seasons against him when voting him in.

Kimbrel is an all-time great closer.  9 time all star, has won all the reliever awards that are out there, rookie of the year, lead the league in saves 4 seasons in a row, racked up a bunch of saves, received Cy Young votes in some seasons...played on really good teams.

If anything, the reason to not vote for him is that his postseason ERA is 4.50....even that number doesn't tell the whole story, there have been some outright dominant postseason performances mixed in with some large blowups.  

The other reason to not vote for him (which is a little silly) would be that he hopped around between a lot of teams at the end of his career...that, IMO, highlights what people think of his value at the end...no one wanted him to stay long enough, but someone saw enough to give him a shot.  It's the same reason why Kenny Lofton isn't in the Hall of Fame but Derek Jeter is despite ~3.0 less bWAR.  Lofton played for a ton of teams at the end.

Either way, I think he makes the Hall of Fame...first ballot?  Depends on who else is on that ballot and how closers/relievers are valued when that vote comes around.  If he's not elected on the first ballot, I'm not upset about it.

I don't think anyone here is underestimating that.  

If Kimbrel didn't blow half of the saves he did or didn't have half the flareups he's had, there's a strong chance we're in first place.

I appreciate the comment, but the fact is… Man, Zach Eflin is fat… Anyway, a reliever has to be completely dominant all the time because he only pitches about 60-70 innings a year. I just don’t think he’s got that long period of dominance that makes him Hall worthy. I don’t think he’ll get in, but he may stay on the ballot for a couple years.