Hyde Hot Seat

[Baseball fandom]

Wasn't Hyde always thought of more or less as a caretaker? I'm on the fence about him coming back. I totally get the injuries and that needs to be taking into consideration but man this collapse some heads have to roll who's I'm  mot sure 

[e16bball]

18 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

The decision to have Mullins bunt against the Tigers on Sunday was correct, just as it would have been correct on Wednesday to have him bunt against the Giants. Whether or not either bunt was successful is irrelevant. If Mullins tries to bunt in that situation and fails then that is on Mullins. If Mullins doesn't even try to bunt then that is on Hyde. 

I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked. 

But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit.

To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead). 

And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday).

The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).

 

At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.

[Baseball fandom]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:45 PM, EddeeEddee said:

Yeah I agree.  Next year maybe but not this season.  Personally I think Elias is more to blame for the O's struggles this season than Hyde.

I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  

[EddeeEddee]

5 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  

I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason.

I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason.

I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  

He thought Holliday, Kjerstad, and Mayo would hit.  One got hurt.  The other two have not.  They and Adley are why this team sucks at the moment. 

[LGOrioles]

6 hours ago, waroriole said:

Is it really the injuries?

 

It’s clearly a factor but they have been playing crappy baseball (poor base running, defense, inability to move runners over) since June. It really hasn’t been much different than the last 2 weeks other than the pitching being worse and the offense being a little bit better. Still the same vibe though. They haven’t won a series against a team over .500 in 2 and a half months. They’ve won 1 series against a non Colorado or CHW team since 8/1. There’s zero reason they should be this bad. 

[MCO'sFan]

16 hours ago, Baseball fandom said:

Tbh I  wouldn't mind either one myself but Washington is with the Angels. Who knows maybe Dusty can be like Brice Broche and win here like he did in Texas last year. David Ross may deserve another shot. 

I wouldn't mind David Ross. 

[Moose Milligan]

The Orioles were 17-12 in June with a +41 run differential.  That was their biggest run differential in a month this season, the second biggest if you're gonna lump March and April together.

[Baseball fandom]

6 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason.

I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  

I hear you. Like I said prior to Rubenstein I don't think Elias can be graded responsibly because JA handcuffed him but moving forward with DR as owner he deservedly so will be graded accordingly if he continues his conservative ways and bringing in only fringe guys and we have more seasons like this. 

[Baseball fandom]

2 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

It’s clearly a factor but they have been playing crappy baseball (poor base running, defense, inability to move runners over) since June. It really hasn’t been much different than the last 2 weeks other than the pitching being worse and the offense being a little bit better. Still the same vibe though. They haven’t won a series against a team over .500 in 2 and a half months. They’ve won 1 series against a non Colorado or CHW team since 8/1. There’s zero reason they should be this bad. 

Wow that's really bad about not winning series. Also you said the offense has been a little bit better?  My goodness how bad was it prior that this enimic offense has been a little bit better then before 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

I hear you. Like I said prior to Rubenstein I don't think Elias can be graded responsibly because JA handcuffed him but moving forward with DR as owner he deservedly so will be graded accordingly if he continues his conservative ways and bringing in only fringe guys and we have more seasons like this. 

We don't know what constraints the new owner has put on him.

[Safelykept]

6 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason.

I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  

The BP might be an afterthought, Felix is back, which could make everybody better. Danny, and SA have options, Soto is arb eligible, everybody else is still under team control

[LookitsPuck]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We don't know what constraints the new owner has put on him.

We do know that Rubenstein is all about that T Rowe money, land rights, and throwing hats. 

[casadeozo]

17 hours ago, Baseball fandom said:

Tbh I  wouldn't mind either one myself but Washington is with the Angels. Who knows maybe Dusty can be like Brice Broche and win here like he did in Texas last year. David Ross may deserve another shot. 

Lol this is a take from the 90s. Washington is in danger of being fired solely for constantly airing out his players and buy most is seen as a relic of a bygone era that the game has passed by.

Dusty Baker consistently lost with the best talent.  Until of course the year before he retired. This is the same guy who played hard headedly played a below replacement level catcher in Maldonado instead of a top prospect due to “veteran leadership”.

so no while I don’t love Hyde if these are the options let’s stick with him.

[LGOrioles]

53 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

Wow that's really bad about not winning series. Also you said the offense has been a little bit better?  My goodness how bad was it prior that this enimic offense has been a little bit better then before 

I’m saying the last 3 months the pitching was a bit worse and the offense was a bit better, but they have not been a good team.