This is "blow it up"

[Dr. FLK]

Mr. Reimold may not agree with you on that one!

Oops. Good point. Now we can have 1 who doesn't pan out. In that case, we're golden.

[NewMarketSean]

You just named every legit offensive prospect we have. We have no depth in the minors. So, we need every single prospect to pan out. How often does that happen?

He thinks it, which is why he doesn't make a lot of sense.

[PoorMike]

You just named every legit offensive prospect we have. We have no depth in the minors. So, we need every single prospect to pan out. How often does that happen?

Very seldom.

That's our problem. Every prospect does not pan out....so you have to have a stocpile of them. We as O's fans are used to hearing about a guy and saying, "ok, he's our [fill in position] for next year."....but it's doesn't always work that way. You need talent all over the place, not 2 prospects per farm club.

The last time I can remember us having more than one guy at a position was Loe Gomez and Worthington about 15 years ago....and neither of them panned out. Other clubs have that every year.

[BaltimoreTerp]

You just named every legit offensive prospect we have. We have no depth in the minors. So, we need every single prospect to pan out. How often does that happen?

So, those are the only prospects we're going to have?

Of those Braves listed, Chipper Jones was drafted in June 1990, Klesko in 1989, and Lopez was signed as a 16-year-old in 1987 (and wasn't a full-time major leaguer for almost a decade.

However, Andruw Jones wasn't signed until 1993. Jermaine Dye wasn't drafted until 1993.

They didn't have everyone in place already, just waiting for them to come up. That "next wave" wasn't coming through for several years after the turnaround started.

[geschinger]

But who says Nick Markakis isn't our David Justice?

He might be, but as far as young offensive talent that is of immediate help the pickings are lean.

Who says Rowell, Weiters, and Snyder aren't our Jones, Lopez and Klesko?

Klesko was the only one who was even close at that time, and he only played parts of 1992, and didn't get a real full ML season until 1996. Chipper Jones had a couple at-bats in '93, but wasn't up full-time until '95, nor was Javy Lopez. Andruw Jones wasn't full-time until 1996.

They had players in the system, but we do as well.

They might be but there isn't much room for error as we lack depth. Even in a system as good as the Braves was there were highly touted players who don't make it. Chances of all three of those guys becoming solid major leaguers is far from great. Thinking back to the braves - in the drafts before they turned it around they picked a HS catcher (Tyler Houston), a SS to be converted to 3b (Chipper Jones) and a consensus best college player available - can't miss prospect in Mike Kelly. Not all that different from the Orioles last three drafts and only Chipper Jones made much of an impact for 'em.

IMO, the best case scenario for success would be to parlay some/all of the veteran core for young talent. The hope being that they develo into quality players who have still have peak years ahead of them when guys coming up like a Wieters, Rowell, etc... can compliment 'em. I'm not sure how much good it does us if the we hold on to the core who we aren't going to win with anyway in the short term and have them on the decline when the reinforcements are ready.

[geschinger]

So, those are the only prospects we're going to have?

Of those Braves listed, Chipper Jones was drafted in June 1990, Klesko in 1989, and Lopez was signed as a 16-year-old in 1987 (and wasn't a full-time major leaguer for almost a decade.

However, Andruw Jones wasn't signed until 1993. Jermaine Dye wasn't drafted until 1993.

They didn't have everyone in place already, just waiting for them to come up. That "next wave" wasn't coming through for several years after the turnaround started.

They didn't turn into all-stars but the Braves did have other young talent that made an impact like a Ronnie Gant, Jeff Blauser, Brian Hunter, etc... bridging the gap until the second wave.

[clapdiddy]

So, the fact that Hoey and Doyne were completely and totally dominant in the minors yet failed miserably in the majors thus far is a reflection on the scouting and management? Interesting, especially since most of the armchair GMs on this board were clamoring for these two for months before they were actually promoted and hurling insults at the FO for not promoting them.

If the FO scouting/mgmt can't depend on the excellent stats posted by Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey, and Doyne to translate to the majors, what should they have depended on? Weren't you the main guy advocating that we should bank on the guys with good minor league track records to succeed in the majors rather than spend money on FA relievers? I'm not trying to pick on you, but I just don't see what the FO is supposed to do if they have guys performing well in the minors who come up and blow in the majors. While the guys I mentioned are the main "prospects" I'm talking about, even fodder like Bell and Birkins had very respectable results in the minors this year.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying that we're screwed if the guys with great K rates, homer rates, hit rates, WHIPs, etc... in the minors come up here and blow. That is the root of the evil that has happened with the bullpen (and recently the starters). Am I wrong that all we can use are the scouting reports and results to make determinations here? What should they have done to prepare Hoey, Doyne, etc... that they didn't do? These guys were killing the minors.

I stated this in the Mazzone thread...but I'm wondering if our problems are at the minor league instructional level? ALL of the pitchers who have come up in the last few years have had mechanical and/or control problems. ALL of them....check it out.

[Pheasants]

Drungo has been one of the posters who talks most about the reliability of minor league stats as predictors of the majors. But that still doesn't mean he's wrong in that the organization isn't doing its job. But it is doing the job of creating pitchers who can dominate in the minors so the problem is in the translation to the majors which I would say boils down to a few things:

1) They are being taught to pitch one way in the minors and then told to do something else when they get here.

2) They have a different training regimen and instruction emphasis in teh minors than in the majors. Since several pitchers have had good performances after being called up and then gone bad, I suspect this is likely.

3) They are being told that they can't do this or do that to some batter so they have to nibble and be perfect rather than trusting their stuff. Thus their confidence is being shattered.

4) Bad games are used for judgmental criticism rather than as learning experiences. Does anyone know what Mazzone does with a pitcher the day after a bad game? Do they watch films together? Go over scenarios? Talk about what could have been done? Or does he scream about how they are not good enough?

About the only thing our pitchers' performances have in common between minors and majors is that some have control problems in both places. Some only have control problems in the majors.

[geschinger]

I stated this in the Mazzone thread...but I'm wondering if our problems are at the minor league instructional level? ALL of the pitchers who have come up in the last few years have had mechanical and/or control problems. ALL of them....check it out.

There might be something to it... Thinking back to Loewen, he had a lot of success in AA/AAA and didn't look very good in Baltimore. A few changes and some time back in AAA to work on those changes and he looked a lot better when he came up.

I know I'm reaching, but maybe the instruction and focus is too much on what will allow a player to have success at the level he's at rather than on what will help turn them into a solid major leaguers?

I.e., say a pitcher can dominate at a particular level with nothing but his fastball... Are the coaches forcing him to use his secondary stuff enough to where he can be effective at the next level even if it means he might not be quite as effective at that level?

[DrungoHazewood]

Drungo has been one of the posters who talks most about the reliability of minor league stats as predictors of the majors. But that still doesn't mean he's wrong in that the organization isn't doing its job. But it is doing the job of creating pitchers who can dominate in the minors so the problem is in the translation to the majors which I would say boils down to a few things:

1) They are being taught to pitch one way in the minors and then told to do something else when they get here.

2) They have a different training regimen and instruction emphasis in teh minors than in the majors. Since several pitchers have had good performances after being called up and then gone bad, I suspect this is likely.

3) They are being told that they can't do this or do that to some batter so they have to nibble and be perfect rather than trusting their stuff. Thus their confidence is being shattered.

4) Bad games are used for judgmental criticism rather than as learning experiences. Does anyone know what Mazzone does with a pitcher the day after a bad game? Do they watch films together? Go over scenarios? Talk about what could have been done? Or does he scream about how they are not good enough?

About the only thing our pitchers' performances have in common between minors and majors is that some have control problems in both places. Some only have control problems in the majors.

This is what I'm talking about. What is the organization doing here? Why isn't minor league success translating to major league success?

Some ideas:

1. They're picking guys with overall records that look superficially good but may not be so great when you look deeper. Doyne had good K rates, but his control has been shaky. What was his GB/FB ratio? HR rate? Maybe the O's scouts and analysts do good back-of-the-napkin analysis but don't go deep enough?

2. Is Mazzone's philosophy being taught in the minors?

3. What exactly is different between Bowie, Norfolk, and Baltimore? Mound? Balls? Training? Attitude of coaches?

4. Are they being taught to do something different than what got them here? Is someone telling them that "this ain't the minors, boy, you need to be perfect every time out or you'll find yourself back in Norfolk."?

I really don't know what's going on, but it's just bizarre and painful that other teams get much better work out of players with similar track records.

[JTrea81]

This is what I'm talking about. What is the organization doing here? Why isn't minor league success translating to major league success?

Some ideas:

1. They're picking guys with overall records that look superficially good but may not be so great when you look deeper. Doyne had good K rates, but his control has been shaky. What was his GB/FB ratio? HR rate? Maybe the O's scouts and analysts do good back-of-the-napkin analysis but don't go deep enough?

2. Is Mazzone's philosophy being taught in the minors?

3. What exactly is different between Bowie, Norfolk, and Baltimore? Mound? Balls? Training? Attitude of coaches?

4. Are they being taught to do something different than what got them here? Is someone telling them that "this ain't the minors, boy, you need to be perfect every time out or you'll find yourself back in Norfolk."?

I really don't know what's going on, but it's just bizarre and painful that other teams get much better work out of players with similar track records.

Not to mention the guys that we have traded recently - i.e. Maine, Fontenot, Spears, and now Hart have all found success in other organizations. Nobody thought that Kevin Hart (traded in the Bynum deal) would amount to anything but he's pitching better than Jim Hoey.

[Sports Guy]

So, the fact that Hoey and Doyne were completely and totally dominant in the minors yet failed miserably in the majors thus far is a reflection on the scouting and management? Interesting, especially since most of the armchair GMs on this board were clamoring for these two for months before they were actually promoted and hurling insults at the FO for not promoting them.

If the FO scouting/mgmt can't depend on the excellent stats posted by Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey, and Doyne to translate to the majors, what should they have depended on? Weren't you the main guy advocating that we should bank on the guys with good minor league track records to succeed in the majors rather than spend money on FA relievers? I'm not trying to pick on you, but I just don't see what the FO is supposed to do if they have guys performing well in the minors who come up and blow in the majors. While the guys I mentioned are the main "prospects" I'm talking about, even fodder like Bell and Birkins had very respectable results in the minors this year.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying that we're screwed if the guys with great K rates, homer rates, hit rates, WHIPs, etc... in the minors come up here and blow. That is the root of the evil that has happened with the bullpen (and recently the starters). Am I wrong that all we can use are the scouting reports and results to make determinations here? What should they have done to prepare Hoey, Doyne, etc... that they didn't do? These guys were killing the minors.

First of all, before this year, Doyne was nothing spectacular in the minors.

Secondly, Hoey is obviously having mechanics issues.

Also, what about the Mazzone factor? We all know he is a good coach but what else do we know about him? That is takes a while for people to adjust to him and his throwing program. Maybe, with these young kids, they are coming up here totally out of whack and he is correcting slight flaws, teaching them new pitches and things like that. Therefore, it takes time for them to figure it out.

I tend to agree that the MiL instruction is a big problem.

[Fan4Life]

So, the fact that Hoey and Doyne were completely and totally dominant in the minors yet failed miserably in the majors thus far is a reflection on the scouting and management? Interesting, especially since most of the armchair GMs on this board were clamoring for these two for months before they were actually promoted and hurling insults at the FO for not promoting them.

If the FO scouting/mgmt can't depend on the excellent stats posted by Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey, and Doyne to translate to the majors, what should they have depended on? Weren't you the main guy advocating that we should bank on the guys with good minor league track records to succeed in the majors rather than spend money on FA relievers? I'm not trying to pick on you, but I just don't see what the FO is supposed to do if they have guys performing well in the minors who come up and blow in the majors. While the guys I mentioned are the main "prospects" I'm talking about, even fodder like Bell and Birkins had very respectable results in the minors this year.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying that we're screwed if the guys with great K rates, homer rates, hit rates, WHIPs, etc... in the minors come up here and blow. That is the root of the evil that has happened with the bullpen (and recently the starters). Am I wrong that all we can use are the scouting reports and results to make determinations here? What should they have done to prepare Hoey, Doyne, etc... that they didn't do? These guys were killing the minors.

Is it possible that the difference between the AAA game and MLB game is enough to where we have players with talent that excels in that area of difference? I hear the ball is different, the mounds are different etc etc.. how different is AAA really? Obviously the stats aren't as reliable because I constantly hear it repeated how minor leaguer hitters have little to no plate discipline and swing at almost anything. Won't that make a guy like Olson look good, but when faced with major league hitters, umpires etc, can be totally different, a least for awhile?

[DrungoHazewood]

Is it possible that the difference between the AAA game and MLB game is enough to where we have players with talent that excels in that area of difference? I hear the ball is different, the mounds are different etc etc.. how different is AAA really? Obviously the stats aren't as reliable because I constantly hear it repeated how minor leaguer hitters have little to no plate discipline and swing at almost anything. Won't that make a guy like Olson look good, but when faced with major league hitters, umpires etc, can be totally different, a least for awhile?

There is a consistent, reliable difference between AAA and the majors, and it's not a huge gulf. There are similar differences between AAA and AA, AA and A, etc. MLEs and Davenport translations work the vast majority of the time because this difference is consistent.

The Orioles appear to be doing something that makes their players perform worse than players with similar minor league track records in other organizations.

[BirdMan]

If blow it up means trading Roberts, Bedard, Tejada and Hernandez and all the other veteran players that you can get rid of, what you are left with is a bunch of inexperienced guys playing in the majors.

That means a lot of one sided games for a long period. A year, may two years depending on who you get back in trade.

Are you ready for that? Is the fan base? We have had it for maybe three weeks and a lot of people are tuning out. Can the O's go into a total rebuilding and come back out as a successful franchise?

I might be rehashing here. I have not read the complete thread.

I Have no problem blowing it up. The big problem is I don't think we can get enough back to go with the no talent we have on the farm.

I can't believe that all the talent I hear we have in AA and A is any good. All I have heard is how good out young guys are. I have yet to see one player that has been brought up that is even close to playing in the bigs.

It also worries me that when we blow it up the same people that have put together inferior minor league talent will be trading for minor league talent.

I no longer want to hear about the Knott's,Houses etc. being brought up to be our saviors. These guys are minor leaguers and have been let go because all they can hit is inferior minor league pitching.

I have yet to see any starting,mid relief or back end pitching in our system that can be counted on.

We have had only one young position player that was major league ready. He also is probably the one player other than Bedard that would fetch us the most in trade. You ready to trade Markakis? Guess what, Markakis could not even crack the Devil Rays starting outfield. To me this is very telling.

I am for doing whatever it takes to make us a better team. I just don't think there are many correct answers out there. I don't think we have the experts in the FO or on this board to get this done.

All of that being said. I think the only way out is to start throwing money at all of our problem areas and keep the few and the good and get rid of the ugly. Eat bad contracts and spend, spend, spend.