Orioles after Adrian Gonzalez?

[bluedog]

Well let's break this down on the Padres needs.

They are said to be looking for a CFer, pitching and a catcher.

While Buchholz is a good pitcher, he simply doesn't have the ceiling of Chris Tillman. Buchholz will be 26 next year and is likely close to being what he is going to be, likely a #3 or #4 starter.

Tillman on the other hand is only 22 and his flyball tendencies will not be as much of an issue in PETCO, and still has the ceiling of a TOR starter.

As for a CFer, Ellsbury was terrible defensively last season, and should move to LF eventually.

Felix Pie is a much better defender and is cheap and under team control until after 2013.

As for a catching prospect, Max Ramirez is much more advanced than Joseph, however, Caleb Joesph is more likely to stick behind the plate and is looking like he'll be a good catching prospect and will be blocked by Wieters.

Add Snyder and Arrieta to the package and what the Orioles have to offer looks a whole lot more attractive than what the Red Sox have to offer IMO.

Sounds like Jones, Tillman and Caleb Joseph could get this done. Would you pull the trigger on that trade?

[crissfan172]

That really depends on how Tillman performs in comparison to who we replace him with. Same can be said of who we could sign in place of Gonzalez. We look at this deal in terms of what we are giving up verses receiving. If you do that then you are missing out on the players still available or even the players that may be available next year either through free agency or trade.

If Pie performs well for us then the upgade from last years lackluster firstbase options and Gonzalez is likely to be huge. If Pie performs poorly then people may regret the trade as now were are looking to find a viable centerfielder.

My problem is that we haven't been good in the past 12 years because our pitching has been terrible. If we trade away Tillman, we have a hole in our rotation for 2010 and two for 2011. The last thing we need to be doing is making our current (and future) rotation that much shakier. The risk outweighs the reward IMO.

[cnmilton]

I doubt that Adam Jones would be included in any deal this offseason. I bet that the O's are looking at him to be a team leader. He seems to be one of the few players that has leadership skills. Markakis, Roberts, Wieters, Guthrie, etc... all are very quiet, introverted people. Jones (along with Matutz) is one of the few guys on this roster who seems people tend to listen.

[JTrea81]

Sounds like Jones, Tillman and Caleb Joseph could get this done. Would you pull the trigger on that trade?

I won't give up Jones.

Tillman, Arrieta, Pie, Snyder and Joseph.

I'll swap Jones out for Pie, Arrieta and Snyder.

[Lucky Jim]

Adding an All-Star, Gold Glove first baseman with 40 HR, 120 RBI ability doesn't make up for losing two young players who haven't proven they can play at an all star level for one season, much less 4 or 5?

I don't see how anyone can argue that AGon is not far superior to Jones offensively. AGon is all historical production, Jones is all projection at this point.

And Tillman failed to prove that he can handle the majors last year in a fairly extensive opportunity. Where Bergesen and Matusz showed flashes of dominance, Tillman pitched to a 7.30 ERA in his last 5 starts and averaged a HR every 4+ innings. He's no sure bet, regardless of his potential.

So your trading proven production at a huge position of need (1b) for potential at two positions where the O's have other options (CF, SP).

And lets not anoint Jones a proven commodity after a half season of strong play. His injury concerns and bad 2nd half last year have to be at least as predictive as his hot start last year. Is he going to be the feared slugger and gold glove center fielder or the enigmatic free swinger who's injuries and lack of plate discipline overshadow otherwise limitless talent?

AGon is a known quantity. Tillman and Jones are not. Advantage AGon.

Ten years of production (at least eight of which should be leveraged towards contention) versus two years of production (only one of which would be).

Let's not overrate AG's worth, either. He's a very good bat. But his production this past year is inflated by his walk total which is anomalous in his career (like Nick's 2008 season). Those who predicted onward and upward, or even plateau'd production from Nick were surprised by his 2009 regression.

If AG is more like his .870 OPS self (Petco or not) then he's clearly not worth 10 years of Jones and Tillman.

[JTrea81]

My problem is that we haven't been good in the past 12 years because our pitching has been terrible. If we trade away Tillman, we have a hole in our rotation for 2010 and two for 2011. The last thing we need to be doing is making our current (and future) rotation that much shakier. The risk outweighs the reward IMO.

There's no hole because MacPhail wants one more SP:

Millwood

Guthrie

Matusz

Bergesen

Bedard (for example)

The Orioles can always dip into the FA market to sign a #4-#5 starter.

[TonySoprano]

I sense another Hitler video parody at the end of this when Gonzalez ends up in Boston.

[bluedog]

Not sure why Padres would want Sndyer? Blanks goes to 1B for them.

I think Tillman, Pie, Erbe and Herandez is plenty fair. SD loads up on pitching and adds a starting CF.

Tillman Erbe = Buchholz

Pie and Hernandez = Elsbury

Pie and Hernandez do not = Ellsbury. Ells stole 120 bases in the past two years and is probably the most feared base runner in the game today. If I'm Boston I don't even respond to an offer of Pie and Hernandez for Ellsbury.

[bluedog]

There's no hole because MacPhail wants one more SP:

Millwood

Guthrie

Matusz

Bergesen

Bedard (for example)

The Orioles can always dip into the FA market to sign a #4-#5 starter.

And, we have Arrieta, Hernandez and Britton all waiting in the wings as depth. We can afford to trade one of our young pitchers without any problems.

[clapdiddy]

We have what it takes to trade for AGonz, and we can afford to give it up. The problem is two years. It's not worth giving up what it would take, for two years, and he is not going to extend with the O's.

Would it be worth it if he was extended 3 more years? Say we throw a 3/54 extension on the back end of his current deal...

What about this...Tillman, Pie, Joseph, Snyder and Arrieta for Gonzo and Chris Young. The only thing I'm not sure about is Young's status...not sure if he was hurt last year or not. I'm looking at this from a salary relief perspective for SD.

[crissfan172]

Adding an All-Star, Gold Glove first baseman with 40 HR, 120 RBI ability doesn't make up for losing two young players who haven't proven they can play at an all star level for one season, much less 4 or 5?

I don't see how anyone can argue that AGon is not far superior to Jones offensively. AGon is all historical production, Jones is all projection at this point.

And Tillman failed to prove that he can handle the majors last year in a fairly extensive opportunity. Where Bergesen and Matusz showed flashes of dominance, Tillman pitched to a 7.30 ERA in his last 5 starts and averaged a HR every 4+ innings. He's no sure bet, regardless of his potential.

So your trading proven production at a huge position of need (1b) for potential at two positions where the O's have other options (CF, SP).

And lets not anoint Jones a proven commodity after a half season of strong play. His injury concerns and bad 2nd half last year have to be at least as predictive as his hot start last year. Is he going to be the feared slugger and gold glove center fielder or the enigmatic free swinger who's injuries and lack of plate discipline overshadow otherwise limitless talent?

AGon is a known quantity. Tillman and Jones are not. Advantage AGon.

Tillman showed flashes of brilliance before his last 5 starts. He's young and never pitched that late into the season. That kind of regression so late in the year is somewhat to be expected, is it not?

Obviously Gonzalez is better than Jones, but I'd rather wait a year and sign another 1B to go with Jones than give up Jones to have Pie playing CF every day. Finding a quality 1B is a lot easier than finding a quality CF.

At this point, disrupting our future for a slugger just doesn't make sense, especially with free agent pitchers so wary to enter the AL East.

[bluedog]

Ten years of production (at least eight of which should be leveraged towards contention) versus two years of production (only one of which would be).

Let's not overrate AG's worth, either. He's a very good bat. But his production this past year is inflated by his walk total which is anomalous in his career (like Nick's 2008 season). Those who predicted onward and upward, or even plateau'd production from Nick were surprised by his 2009 regression.

If AG is more like his .870 OPS self (Petco or not) then he's clearly not worth 10 years of Jones and Tillman.

Clearly an extension of AGon must be included in any deal. And you can't evaluate AGon vs. Jones & Tillman in a vacuum. If Tillman can be replaced (Britton, Arrieta, etc) then we're not necessarily losing anything by moving him. If Pie blossoms into an above average CF as a full time player, we haven't lost 100% of 5 years of Jones - we've lost some fraction of that.

AGon's value is increased by the O's long term need at 1b, where Tillman and Jones value is decreased by the fact the team has other viable options at those positions.

[crissfan172]

There's no hole because MacPhail wants one more SP:

Millwood

Guthrie

Matusz

Bergesen

Bedard (for example)

The Orioles can always dip into the FA market to sign a #4-#5 starter.

Can they find a young, cheap, SP with no injury issues, and a TOR upside? I'd much rather give up Britton AND Arrieta than Tillman. Tillman is going to be special.

[RandyM]

I won't give up Jones.

Tillman, Arrieta, Pie, Snyder and Joseph.

I'll swap Jones out for Pie, Arrieta and Snyder.

Do you do Jones, Arrieta/Britton, Snyder, and Joseph?

Jones, Erbe, Snyder, and Joseph is something I would do, but don't think it gets it done.

Seems like Jones is a real big "stick" to beat out Boston.

[cnmilton]

How about Tillman, Hernandez, Pie, Snyder, and Joseph? Again, 3 guys off the Major League roster, 2 young highly regarded SP, 1 high upside CF with ML experience, High prospect (O's #5 prospect) 1b, and a C prospect who showed some moxie until he tired late in the minor league season. Would this get it done? I replaced Arrieta with Hernandez due to the addition of Joseph.