Anybody Else Wonder Why DT Didn't Pinch Run For Atkins?

[Lucky Jim]

So why is this something that we have to assign blame to? Why can't this be a case of Pie making a pretty good throw, but it caught Wieters on an in-between hop, making it hard to handle, the ball gets away, and the guy scored?

Good ballplayers doing stuff like they're supposed to doesn't always end in a win.

Exactly - one run, in baseball, isn't something worth assigning blame over, generally. One can perform all parts of a specific job and have it result in a negative result. This is true of the Pie-Wieters connection, and true, too, of Miggy's AB w/ the bases loaded. Judging either by the result is wrong-headed, I think. Those plays even out over the course of the year. The good news is that we have players who can make those plays. This wasn't the case when Jay Payton was in LF.

[Tony-OH]

A liner and you don't run. A ground ball to anyone other than the pitcher, you do.

How is this complicated? Stotle explained it very well.

I really don't understand this complaint at all as well. Obviously we have some people who have not played much baseball trying to find something to blame the manager for.

With runners on first and third, the 3rd base runner takes off on contact on any hard ground ball not hit to the pitcher (if it is hit at the pitcher the batter should hold up and try to get the pitcher's attention in hopes he'll take a second too long to be able to turn around and get the double play). The reason is the worse case scenario is the team ends up with 1st and 2nd and one out instead of a possible 3rd base two out situation.

I'm sure someone can look it up, but I'm pretty sure the probability of scoring a run with a man on second and one out is better than a man on 3rd and two outs.

There is no need to have a play put on and there is no poor decision by Atkins. The only poor decision was when Atkins decided to meekly try to slide around the catcher instead of being a hard nose ball player and trucking him over.

[Old#5fan]

I really don't understand this complaint at all as well. Obviously we have some people who have not played much baseball trying to find something to blame the manager for.

With runners on first and third, the 3rd base runner takes off on contact on any hard ground ball not hit to the pitcher (if it is hit at the pitcher the batter should hold up and try to get the pitcher's attention in hopes he'll take a second too long to be able to turn around and get the double play). The reason is the worse case scenario is the team ends up with 1st and 2nd and one out instead of a possible 3rd base two out situation.

I'm sure someone can look it up, but I'm pretty sure the probability of scoring a run with a man on second and one out is better than a man on 3rd and two outs.

There is no need to have a play put on and there is no poor decision by Atkins. The only poor decision was when Atkins decided to meekly try to slide around the catcher instead of being a hard nose ball player and trucking him over.

I disagree with you for one reason only. You don't run home from third with zero outs and the ball hit to the pitcher, first or third when the first or third baseman is playing in as they were in this situation (at least Longoria was, not totally sure about Pena).

[Tony-OH]

Absolutely...It was a tough play? So what..These guys are really good...Best in the world good. Making tough plays is one of the reasons they get paid so much money..They are supposed to make them.

That being said, I don't think you can really blame Wieters...If you choose to lay blame on someone, clearly its not Pie though.

It was a tough hop, but not a terrible short hop so Wieters should have handled it a bit better. But, it was a bit of a tough hop. I don't think either guy should get the "blame" per se, but it would fall on Wieters more than Pie in my opinion.

The only thing is that Pie did not rush to the ball quick enough in my opinion and that split second cost him a bit and may have caused Wieters to hurry a bit more than he had to. Not trying to blame Pie as he made a decent play overall, but a top defensive left fielder may have gotten the guy by getting to the ball quicker and making a good strong one hop through like Markakis made earlier in the game.

[Tony-OH]

I disagree with you for one reason only. You don't run home from third with zero outs and the ball hit to the pitcher, first or third when they first or third baseman is playing in as they were in this situation (at least Longoria was, not totally sure about Pena).

You would be wrong then. Longoria fields that thing cleanly he fires over to second for start the double play and it's too late for you to move. Runner on third, two outs and everyone will be on the Hangout complaining about your lack of base running instincts.

[Mackus]

I'm sure someone can look it up, but I'm pretty sure the probability of scoring a run with a man on second and one out is better than a man on 3rd and two outs.

I don't have quick access to the chances of scoring exactly one run, but the run expectancy of a guy on 3rd with 2 outs is 0.387 runs, but with 1st and 2nd w/ 1 outs, the expectancy is 0.971 runs.

I'd expect the "chance of scoring 1 run" numbers are a bit closer, but probably still come out well ahead for the 1st and 2nd, 1 out scenario. I'll see if I can dig those up somewhere.

[backwardsk]

I don't have quick access to the chances of scoring exactly one run, but the run expectancy of a guy on 3rd with 2 outs is 0.387 runs, but with 1st and 2nd w/ 1 outs, the expectancy is 0.971 runs.

I'd expect the "chance of scoring 1 run" numbers are a bit closer, but probably still come out well ahead for the 1st and 2nd, 1 out scenario. I'll see if I can dig those up somewhere.

What's the expectancy with a runner on 3rd and 0 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, and runner on 2nd with 0 outs? Because the Orioles last night were .000.

Is that tracked anywhere?...Teams percentage of scoring guys in those situations and how it relates to wins? That would be interesting.

[Tony-OH]

What's the expectancy with a runner on 3rd and 0 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, and runner on 2nd with 0 outs? Because the Orioles last night were .000.

Is that tracked anywhere?...Teams percentage of scoring guys in those situations and how it relates to wins? That would be interesting.

Boy, that's the painful truth...

[Old#5fan]

You would be wrong then. Longoria fields that thing cleanly he fires over to second for start the double play and it's too late for you to move. Runner on third, two outs and everyone will be on the Hangout complaining about your lack of base running instincts.

I don't think the ball was hit that hard for Longoria to do that with the speedy Roberts hitting from the left side which is one step closer to first. I am not saying it wouldn't be possible, but very unlikely that would be a DP with Roberts running.

[backwardsk]

Boy, that's the painful truth...

That's why I'd be interested in a study of this is across the league. Obviously, as Orioles fans, we remember the times they don't convert, but probably pay less attention to how the opponents do.

[olehippi]

The dumbing down of America continues. No wonder I don't post here as often anymore. The knee-jerk assumptions pushed by everyone's own opinions are ridiculous.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I agree that the post-game woulda-coulda-shoulda dialogue is ubiquitous at best. It's driven by individual dogmatic beliefs. Whether or not those beliefs are founded in reality is obviously immaterial.

[Old#5fan]

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I agree that the post-game woulda-coulda-shoulda dialogue is ubiquitous at best. It's driven by individual dogmatic beliefs. Whether or not those beliefs are founded in reality is obviously immaterial.

Uh, isn't that how fans normally converse/commiserate after a tough loss? Its what we do isn't it?

[jmmarvel]

Pie's throw to home was money. OJ blew that one. Listening to Kennedy (former catcher, Rays announcer) explain how Wieties had plenty of time to pick the htrow and come back to make the tag, makes it clear. Matt rushed it. It was a good throw, not perfect, but good. The catcher can't expect much better.

Oops. The first time through I thought it was Pie's throw - I watched the instant replay and realized it was MW fault. Between the loss last night and going to work today, my brain isn't quite working right. Regardless, that play didn't help our cause last night.

[Satyr3206]

In relation to some parts of this thread my son said it best after practice last night. He looked at me and said, "It looks a lot easier on TV". And I told him it does but sometimes the guys on TV don't think it's easy either.

There's another game tonight. And 160 after that. I'll keep my kneejerks to myself thank you.

[Three Run Homer]

With runners on first and third, the 3rd base runner takes off on contact on any hard ground ball not hit to the pitcher (if it is hit at the pitcher the batter should hold up and try to get the pitcher's attention in hopes he'll take a second too long to be able to turn around and get the double play). The reason is the worse case scenario is the team ends up with 1st and 2nd and one out instead of a possible 3rd base two out situation.

I'm sure someone can look it up, but I'm pretty sure the probability of scoring a run with a man on second and one out is better than a man on 3rd and two outs.

There is no need to have a play put on and there is no poor decision by Atkins. The only poor decision was when Atkins decided to meekly try to slide around the catcher instead of being a hard nose ball player and trucking him over.

Thanks for explaining this. Essentially, what you're saying is that Atkins runs on contact as a sacrificial lamb, to prevent a double play, not because there's an expectation that he'll make it home. I retract my original criticism of the baserunning on this play.