Showalter and trades this offseason

[waroriole]

The Orioles have to acquire talent when it is available. The past few offseasons should have shown us that as we passed on Texieira and then Matt Holliday two perfect fits for our franchise. There is no perfect fit anymore. The FAs are either all older and prone to decline or the players available for trade will be costly in terms of prospects.

I'm sick of this garbage, and I'm calling you out on it. As SG has pointed out many times, you said you wouldn't sign Holliday for what it was going to take to get him here (at least 7/140). So stop blaming AM for it, when you wouldn't have done it yourself.

Second, Tex got 8/184 from the MFY. He didn't give us a chance to beat that offer. That should say something about where he wanted to play. Even if he had given us a chance to beat it, what would it have taken to beat it? We have to go 8/200 to stay in the negotiation. Do the MFY beat that? Almost certainly. TEX WASN'T COMING HERE!

[Robbie]

Because you cannot find the difference making players that you need entirely on the FA market. You won't find similar production of Fielder or Gonzalez at 1B on a 1-2 year deal for anybody. If you want Konerko you will have to likely go for 3-4 years. He's the only player that's close, and being 35 he could drop off the face of the earth next season.

And the younger players that have more control are not available and/or more costly than it would be to acquire Fielder or Gonzalez.

There's a reason they will likely both be available for trade, and it's because they don't have a lot of team control left. If both had say 3 years under team control left, they likely would not be available.

The Orioles have to acquire talent when it is available. The past few offseasons should have shown us that as we passed on Texieira and then Matt Holliday two perfect fits for our franchise. There is no perfect fit anymore. The FAs are either all older and prone to decline or the players available for trade will be costly in terms of prospects.

If the Orioles want to win, they have to suck it up and pay the price both in terms of prospects and $ because they blew their other opportunities when they had them.

And those opportunties will keep shrinking as more and more teams are locking up their top positional players and more and more teams are freeing up payroll so there's more competition for what's left.

So you want a top power hitter for the next two years, even though we are more than likely are not going to make the playoffs the next two years with or without them? So the end result is we trade valuable prospects who should be helping us when we are competing for a couple of years of a several meaninglessness wins?

[DrungoHazewood]

Because you cannot find the difference making players that you need entirely on the FA market. You won't find similar production of Fielder or Gonzalez at 1B on a 1-2 year deal for anybody. If you want Konerko you will have to likely go for 3-4 years. He's the only player that's close, and being 35 he could drop off the face of the earth next season.

And the younger players that have more control are not available and/or more costly than it would be to acquire Fielder or Gonzalez.

There's a reason they will likely both be available for trade, and it's because they don't have a lot of team control left. If both had say 3 years under team control left, they likely would not be available.

The Orioles have to acquire talent when it is available. The past few offseasons should have shown us that as we passed on Texieira and then Matt Holliday two perfect fits for our franchise. There is no perfect fit anymore. The FAs are either all older and prone to decline or the players available for trade will be costly in terms of prospects.

If the Orioles want to win, they have to suck it up and pay the price both in terms of prospects and $ because they blew their other opportunities when they had them.

And those opportunties will keep shrinking as more and more teams are locking up their top positional players and more and more teams are freeing up payroll so there's more competition for what's left.

Ok, so we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm still against what's the equivalent of a 1/90 deal for Fielder.

[Sports Guy]

If not them somebody similar.

And then we need a slightly lesser RH bat like Werth or Beltre.

We need one power RH bat and one power LH bat this offseason to stick in the #3 and #4 spots in the lineup.

Roberts

Markakis

RH bat

LH bat

Jones

Scott

Wieters

Pie/Bell

SS

Otherwise you'll never know what you have in Jones and Wieters because they will be once again tasked with carrying the offense and will likely press and disappoint.

Derek Jeter didn't have to carry the offensive load when he was in his second year, neither did Dustin Pedroia or even Evan Longoria.

They had a supporting cast around them and were allowed to relax and build confidence. The Orioles haven't provided that supporting cast and we saw the result of that, and not with just the young players, but Nick Markakis as well, who has had one of his worst seasons since his rookie year.

So, we add Konerko, Crawford and Furcal...That's not enough for the young players to be good and for the offense to be good?

[EtotheKallday17]

So, we add Konerko, Crawford and Furcal...

Sounds good to me.

I don't really have to go into detail about my opinion on this...it seems like everyone VS Trea....guess which side I'm on?

[Sports Guy]

Sounds good to me.

I don't really have to go into detail about my opinion on this...it seems like everyone VS Trea....guess which side I'm on?

I have no issue with Jtrea wanting to add Fielder or AGon...I don't think its a smart move at all but I could also see it working out for us.

HOWEVER, what Jtrea is 1000% wrong about is that there is only one way to build this team into a successful club. He believes you can only do that with a big bat or 2...and that's dead wrong.

[EtotheKallday17]

I have no issue with Jtrea wanting to add Fielder or AGon...I don't think its a smart move at all but I could also see it working out for us.

HOWEVER, what Jtrea is 1000% wrong about is that there is only one way to build this team into a successful club. He believes you can only do that with a big bat or 2...and that's dead wrong.

Yeah, and I agree with you. You can't go wrong with guys that have Fielder or AGon like numbers. But its not what we need long term...and we don't need to be giving up our young players to get them...

[DrungoHazewood]

I have no issue with Jtrea wanting to add Fielder or AGon...I don't think its a smart move at all but I could also see it working out for us.

Do you think there's any way a prospects-for-one-year-of-Fielder trade could work out without the prospects all ending up busts? The only other way I could make it work would be if the O's improved by 35 games next year and Fielder was a huge part of that.

[ESos92]

I think people are bashing jtrea here too much. I read this site all the time, don't post too much but I think what he's saying is valid. This team does not have a bonafide superstar like a prince fielder or adrian gonzalez. people claim that wieters or jones will turn into those types of players, but we haven't seen that, and 1b is a gaping hole with a bunch of power options in a powerless lineup. If we have to overpay for fielder or gonzalez...do it. we have attractive and expendable players (tillman comes to mind because his fb tendencies are horrible for opacy, we also have one extra body in the outfield that can go). Someone like Tillman can turn into a potential ace, but that's no guarantee. With fielder or gonzalez you know what your getting. This team right now is pathetic offensively (granted getting a little better under buck).

The only thing I would require in that trade, is if we guarantee an extension with the person were trading for. That can be worked out in trades, and maybe well have to pay fielder tex like money (I know he's much worse), but if thats whats going to get him to stay then do it. This team needs a power hitting superstar like player, the other players around him will come together if you get a fielder or gonzalez. I'd be willing to give up a lot. Don't settle for an inconsistent, old, and declining konerko...lock up another face to the franchise who can go along with markakis wieters etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think people are bashing jtrea here too much. I read this site all the time, don't post too much but I think what he's saying is valid. This team does not have a bonafide superstar like a prince fielder or adrian gonzalez. people claim that wieters or jones will turn into those types of players, but we haven't seen that, and 1b is a gaping hole with a bunch of power options in a powerless lineup. If we have to overpay for fielder or gonzalez...do it. we have attractive and expendable players (tillman comes to mind because his fb tendencies are horrible for opacy, we also have one extra body in the outfield that can go). Someone like Tillman can turn into a potential ace, but that's no guarantee. With fielder or gonzalez you know what your getting. This team right now is pathetic offensively (granted getting a little better under buck).

You have a better idea of what you're getting than with the prospects, but you don't know. And it's not like you're guaranteed an MVP-type player. Three of the last five years Fielder has had an OPS under .900.

The only thing I would require in that trade, is if we guarantee an extension with the person were trading for. That can be worked out in trades, and maybe well have to pay fielder tex like money (I know he's much worse), but if thats whats going to get him to stay then do it. This team needs a power hitting superstar like player, the other players around him will come together if you get a fielder or gonzalez. I'd be willing to give up a lot. Don't settle for an inconsistent, old, and declining konerko...lock up another face to the franchise who can go along with markakis wieters etc.

The only way to guarantee an extension would be to offer Fielder or Gonzalez an over-the-top deal. One of those Soriano-type contracts that the player simply can't refuse because even a bidding war would unlikely top it.

The odds of a deal-and-sign working out for the O's given that they'd have to hugely overpay on the extension seem remote at best. You're betting on the players traded for one year of Fielder/Gonzalez playing poorly, and you're betting on Fielder/Gonzalez earning a long-term deal that you've busted the bank on.

[Sports Guy]

Do you think there's any way a prospects-for-one-year-of-Fielder trade could work out without the prospects all ending up busts? The only other way I could make it work would be if the O's improved by 35 games next year and Fielder was a huge part of that.

There are several ways it could work out:

1) The prospects we trade end up being worth very little.

2) The draft picks we get for Fielder end up being better than what we traded for him.

3) The Orioles miraculousy contend.

4) The Orioles still lose Fielder but they have a resurgence and become a major player again in FA, the trade market and, more importantly, in the eyes of the fans.

There are plenty of scenarios...Now, the question is, how likely are those scenarios? I would have to say that the likelihood of what we give up is worth more than we ever get is the most likely scenario.

[Sports Guy]

I think people are bashing jtrea here too much. I read this site all the time, don't post too much but I think what he's saying is valid. This team does not have a bonafide superstar like a prince fielder or adrian gonzalez. people claim that wieters or jones will turn into those types of players, but we haven't seen that, and 1b is a gaping hole with a bunch of power options in a powerless lineup. If we have to overpay for fielder or gonzalez...do it. we have attractive and expendable players (tillman comes to mind because his fb tendencies are horrible for opacy, we also have one extra body in the outfield that can go). Someone like Tillman can turn into a potential ace, but that's no guarantee. With fielder or gonzalez you know what your getting. This team right now is pathetic offensively (granted getting a little better under buck).

The only thing I would require in that trade, is if we guarantee an extension with the person were trading for. That can be worked out in trades, and maybe well have to pay fielder tex like money (I know he's much worse), but if thats whats going to get him to stay then do it. This team needs a power hitting superstar like player, the other players around him will come together if you get a fielder or gonzalez. I'd be willing to give up a lot. Don't settle for an inconsistent, old, and declining konerko...lock up another face to the franchise who can go along with markakis wieters etc.

First of all, Konerko is showing no signs of decline although at his age, we can all agree that those signs can come on quickly.

Secondly, what kind of extension are you prepared to give either AGon or Fielder? To be honest, I am just as "worried" about the extension it would take as I am the players I would give up. If they were under control for 3+ years, I give up a lot to get them. If we were just signing them, I would be ok with overpaying in money but not years.

However, when you combine the 2, you are likely crippling the franchise.

[DrungoHazewood]

There are several ways it could work out:

1) The prospects we trade end up being worth very little.

2) The draft picks we get for Fielder end up being better than what we traded for him.

3) The Orioles miraculousy contend.

4) The Orioles still lose Fielder but they have a resurgence and become a major player again in FA, the trade market and, more importantly, in the eyes of the fans.

There are plenty of scenarios...Now, the question is, how likely are those scenarios? I would have to say that the likelihood of what we give up is worth more than we ever get is the most likely scenario.

I agree that all of those scenarios are pretty unlikely. The most likely is probably #1, but that's very dependent on who the O's give up. I think they'd have to give up at least one of Britton or Matusz, and either one of those guys could make the deal look silly in only a few years.

I'd put the odds on the trade working out for the O's at 10%, maybe 20% on the outside. My most likely case is that one of the guys the O's trade becomes at least a 2-3 win player for the next 5-6 years, Fielder doesn't resign and his one year in Baltimore is worth four, maybe five wins, the O's go 78-84, and Fielder is remembered here like 1976 Reggie Jackson.

[ESos92]

First of all, Konerko is showing no signs of decline although at his age, we can all agree that those signs can come on quickly.

Secondly, what kind of extension are you prepared to give either AGon or Fielder? To be honest, I am just as "worried" about the extension it would take as I am the players I would give up. If they were under control for 3+ years, I give up a lot to get them. If we were just signing them, I would be ok with overpaying in money but not years.

However, when you combine the 2, you are likely crippling the franchise.

With Fielder there definitely is a risk, there's no denying that. I still think he is a great power hitter (is going to be better than Konerko), and someone we need badly. Gonzalez would definitely be the first one to go after though. I know the Pads are in trouble financially, but I find it astonishing that they would shop him around. That dude is a franchise player. Fielder, with Boras as his representation, will probably need a Tex like deal, as I said before (And I know the two do not even compare). I'm very cautious to doing that, if Gonzalez can be had at something a little more than that Tex deal, say approaching 200M or so, I'd do that in a second. I know that is a god's ton of money, but Gonzalez would be perfect for this team. Fielder I'd very much consider a Tex like deal if its on the table. Still a great player, and there's no other way of getting players like him. I'm not a fan of Konerko at all.

It would not cripple the franchise to pull off a deal like that. The upper level prospects are all familiar to everyone, and hopefully the FO knows who to keep and who to deal.

Then well start building a farm system, starting at the lower levels while maintaining a competitive team at the top.

A lot of people think we are a lot of pieces away from a contender. I do not and that is maybe the reason why everyone has their differences on this. Our core is very good, despite this abysmal year, I am confident in that. They can reach their potential, especially the position players if they have someone in the lineup who can lead the way

[Sports Guy]

I agree that all of those scenarios are pretty unlikely. The most likely is probably #1, but that's very dependent on who the O's give up. I think they'd have to give up at least one of Britton or Matusz, and either one of those guys could make the deal look silly in only a few years.

I'd put the odds on the trade working out for the O's at 10%, maybe 20% on the outside. My most likely case is that one of the guys the O's trade becomes at least a 2-3 win player for the next 5-6 years, Fielder doesn't resign and his one year in Baltimore is worth four, maybe five wins, the O's go 78-84, and Fielder is remembered here like 1976 Reggie Jackson.

I agree but I do think there is a good chance Fielder could be had for less than you think.

Olney mentioned the other day that the Brewers were shocked at how little interest Fielder was drawing at the deadline.

Obviously, you are going to have to give up something good and obviously, what you give up has to be worth at least 2 draft picks but the total package may be less than you think.