Fixing Wieters Swing

[Sports Guy]

So you think it's logical to assume Matt Wieters will never hit above .250 again?

I don't care about his BA. I care about his OPS. I care about his OBP...I care about his power.

Whether he hits 250 or not is meaningless to me and it should be to anyone.

He needs to get on base at a 370+ clip and carry an 500+ slugging...That is why the Orioles paid him what they did. That is why he was looked at as a cornerstone player...That is what he was supposed to do and there are zero signs that he is going to even come close to that.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't care about his BA. I care about his OPS. I care about his OBP...I care about his power.

Whether he hits 250 or not is meaningless to me and it should be to anyone.

He needs to get on base at a 370+ clip and carry an 500+ slugging...That is why the Orioles paid him what they did. That is why he was looked at as a cornerstone player...That is what he was supposed to do and there are zero signs that he is going to even come close to that.

Good points and I agree wholeheartedly.

[SerenityNow]

Good points and I agree wholeheartedly.

If you agree Wieters BA is meaningless then why would that be the basis of your original arguement?

[Moose Milligan]

If you agree Wieters BA is meaningless then why would that be the basis of your original arguement?

Cause SG's point is better than mine?

[ccbird]

I think it's obvious that Wieters isn't going to be the .900+ OPS stud a lot thought he would become. However, people seem too down on him right now. I see the same things you guys see with regards to the slow bat bat, poor contact, etc but I still see potential as well. I see the tools and and body of a guy that if he can work some things out mechanically can still be a good ML hitter.

[SerenityNow]

Cause SG's point is better than mine?

Haha, I have no issue going to sleep areeing with that.

[Moose Milligan]

I think it's obvious that Wieters isn't going to be the .900+ OPS stud a lot thought he would become. However, people seem too down on him right now. I see the same things you guys see with regards to the slow bat bat, poor contact, etc but I still see potential as well. I see the tools and and body of a guy that if he can work some things out mechanically can still be a good ML hitter.

What tools do you see? You just said that he has a slow bat and makes poor contact.

I honestly don't see any sign for hope when he's at the plate.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Lots of big e-peens out tonight. Are people that fired up cause of a bad Texas series?

6-3.

[ccbird]

Unlike the other valid points I actually disagree about a poor batting eye. I still think he's got a pretty good feel for the strike zone up there and the ability to work counts. I think he'll consistently walk 50+ times a year and post an OBP 50 to 70 points higher than his batting average.

[ccbird]

What tools do you see? You just said that he has a slow bat and makes poor contact.

I honestly don't see any sign for hope when he's at the plate.

For one, he's big and strong. He shows the ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field when he makes solid contact. That's not something everyone can do. He just needs to find a way to get the bat through the zone quicker(shorten the swing) and make better contact. I believe that can be done mechanically. If there is one thing you can take away from his college and minor league career is that to be a .320 plus hitter you had to have the abilty to make good contact and hit the ball hard. Even at that level, you just don't luck into being that high an average hitter. Just needs find a way to do it up here. Again, don't think he's going to be a great hitter at the Major League level but I still believe he can be a .290/.350/.450 guy.

[NattieO'sHon]

I don't care about his BA. I care about his OPS. I care about his OBP...I care about his power.

Whether he hits 250 or not is meaningless to me and it should be to anyone.

He needs to get on base at a 370+ clip and carry an 500+ slugging...That is why the Orioles paid him what they did. That is why he was looked at as a cornerstone player...That is what he was supposed to do and there are zero signs that he is going to even come close to that.

What if we end up with a top 5 staff? He is only 24 and has plenty of time.

[jets4ever]

What if we end up with a top 5 staff? He is only 24 and has plenty of time.

Precisely.

Let's not push the panic button too soon on this one. He's been outstanding behind the plate. He's young. Let him work the rest of his game out.

[section18]

Has anybody mentioned whether he wears contacts? I think he does or should if he isn't already. He seems to be squinting when he is observed sitting on the bench and sometimes when he is batting. Maybe he has allergies or something. Lighter bat and eyes checked are right at the top of his list. Even people with good eyesight can't time or see a ball coming at them over 90 mph. Try hitting a ball in a batting cage with a ball coming at you in the mid 80's and you'll know what I'm talking about. I'm not making excuses for him but I think there is a vision issue or allergies that cause the squinting. Vision needs to be as perfect as possible to hit a baseball and he should be checked. This isn't rocket science. He rarely pulls the ball. When he hits to the warning track it's normally to the opposite field or straightaway to CF. This can be corrected if the right people suggest things to him.

[NattieO'sHon]

Has anybody mentioned whether he wears contacts? I think he does or should if he isn't already. He seems to be squinting when he is observed sitting on the bench and sometimes when he is batting. Maybe he has allergies or something. Lighter bat and eyes checked are right at the top of his list. Even people with good eyesight can't see a ball coming at them over 90 mph. Try hitting a ball in a batting cage with a ball coming at you in the mid 80's and you'll know what I'm talking about. I'm not making excuses for him but I think there is a vision issue or allergies that cause the squinting. Vision needs to be as perfect as possible to hit a baseball and he should be checked. This isn't rocket science. He rarely pulls the ball. When he hits to the warning track it's normally to the opposite field or straightaway to CF. This can be corrected if the right people suggest things to him.

Seriously? Cmon man. The kid is in a slump. You are reaching bro.

[nadecir]

The key here is to figure out why Wieters is not hitting major league pitching close to what he did in the minors. Saying that major league pitching is better is NOT the answer to this question. There have been plenty of players with minor league numbers a lot worse than Wieters' who have been more successful sooner in their major league career.

One thing that really stands out if you look at Wieters' stats is that he really doesn't do well at all if the pitcher gets ahead in the count. Take a look at these stats from Baseball Reference:

When Wieters is ahead in the count, he has a career OPS of 1.051.

When Wieters is even in the count, he has a career OPS of .677.

When Wieters is behind in the count, he has a career OPS of .373

Let's compare this to Brian Roberts:

When Roberts is ahead in the count, he has a career OPS of 1.026.

When Roberts is even in the count, he has a career OPS of .668.

When Roberts is behind in the count, he has a career OPS of .593

The only time Brian Roberts hits better than Matt Wieters is when they are behind in the count. In terms of percentages faced in their careers in each situation it's remarkably close between Wieters and Roberts. Both hit ahead in the count about 37% of the time, even in the count about 35% of the time, and behind in the count about 28% of the time.

Here are the career OPS of some other Orioles regulars when they are behind in the count:

Adam Jones - .587

Vladimar Guerrero - .700

Luke Scott - .491

Nick Markakis - .626

Mark Reynolds - .496

Derrek Lee - .556

JJ Hardy - .605

A couple more young non-Orioles players OPS' when they are behind:

Buster Posey - .616

Jason Heyward - .580

Wieters is a much worse hitter behind in the count than most major leaguers. It is safe to say that so far in his career, Matt Wieters is a poor major league hitter behind in the count.

Going one step further - look at this stat. Swinging on the first pitch he sees in a plate appearance, Wieters has an OPS of .864 in his career. In comparison, Brian Roberts has a career OPS of .737 when he swings at the first pitch. Wieters has 6 of his 20 career homeruns on the first pitch.

It's plain to see that so far Wieters just doesn't hit well when the pitcher has an advantage in the count. We don't know why. Perhaps Wieters is a good guess hitter, or he chases pitches too much behind in the count. In any event, I'd rather see Wieters be more aggressive earlier in the count going forward, so there is less of a chance of him falling behind in the count where he hits so poorly.