A few things

[Dipper9]

Agree 100%.

I only want to go after Bay if he is cheap and we can get him for a bargain.

If we can't, the idea of acquiring him shouldn't even be a thought.

So if Pujols became available, we shouldn't consider him either because he'd be too old by the time we are good?

TWENTY NINE is old now? 31 is OLD?

I don't want a team full of 37, 38 year olds, but I don't need a team who's average age is 23 either. The players have to be good. Period. I am not trying to compare Bay to Pujols, but some of you just want to look at age and nothing more. If that's the case, we should in no way shape or form be trying to extend Bedard, as he'll be in his early thirties after his current O's contract expires!

[Boy Howdy]

I think Bay is a risky proposition because guys who don't become big league regulars until age 25 tend to have shorter peaks. Perhaps Drungo can fill in the details, but I remember reading a Bill James study to that effect many years ago.

In a nutshell, it showed that guys who're making a mark in the big leagues by age 21-22 are the ones that tend to age better over the long haul. When it takes a player until age 25-26 to start contributing at the major league level, he's more likely to fall off a cliff earlier into his 30's.

Of course, exceptions abound due to injuries and whatever, but the statisitical evidence was pretty convincing.

Considering Bay's career stats are pretty outstanding, the list of the ten most comparable players through age 28 statisitically is pretty frightening:

Geoff Jenkins (974)

David Justice (956)

Ryan Klesko (954)

Bobby Higginson (947)

Kevin Mitchell (943)

J.D. Drew (939)

Bill Nicholson (938)

Jim Edmonds (937)

Kirk Gibson (937)

Kal Daniels (936)

Many good ballplayers to be sure, but these guys as a group did not age well.

[Leitch]

Here's Bay's PECOTA comps, pre 2007 season:

Name Year Score

1 Tim Salmon 1997 61

2 Dale Murphy 1984 58

3 Eric Davis 1991 54

4 Jesse Barfield 1988 52

5 Bobby Bonds 1974 52

6 Greg Vaughn 1994 50

7 Gil Hodges 1953 49

8 Jeromy Burnitz 1998 46

9 Lance Berkman 2004 46

10 Derrek Lee 2004 46

11 Jack Clark 1984 46

12 Chet Lemon 1983 43

13 Kevin Mitchell 1990 42

14 Larry Doby 1952 42

15 Pedro Guerrero 1985 40

16 Ken Harrelson 1970 39

17 Fred Lynn 1980 39

18 Al Smith 1956 38

19 Bobby Grich 1977 37

20 Willie McCovey 1966 37

I'm not super-high on Reimold and I think Cabrera is a reliever, but I'm not 100% sure about going for Bay.

[O no]

If part of rock bottom is being smart and exploiting another team's poor valuation, then count me in.

Jason Bay will not come cheap, while the Pirates front office is not run by OHers or winning any awards they aren't total idiots who are going to just dump the guy.

I doubt their poor evaluating skills somehow forgets the guy was the NL Rookie of the Year 3 years ago and two time All-Star 05'-06'.

[66-70-83-??]

Here's Bay's PECOTA comps, pre 2007 season:

1 Tim Salmon 1997 61  11 Jack Clark 1984 46  2 Dale Murphy 1984 58  12 Chet Lemon 1983 43  3 Eric Davis 1991 54  13 Kevin Mitchell 1990 42  4 Jesse Barfield 1988 52  14 Larry Doby 1952 42  5 Bobby Bonds 1974 52  15 Pedro Guerrero 1985 40  6 Greg Vaughn 1994 50  16 Ken Harrelson 1970 39  7 Gil Hodges 1953 49  17 Fred Lynn 1980 39  8 Jeromy Burnitz 1998 46  18 Al Smith 1956 38  9 Lance Berkman 2004 46  19 Bobby Grich 1977 37  10 Derrek Lee 2004 46  20 Willie McCovey 1966 37 

I'm not super-high on Reimold and I think Cabrera is a reliever, but I'm not 100% sure about going for Bay.

And that is what kills me. Most on here who are advocating dealing for Bay are also down on both and have similar views about their worth/potential.

But, they don't see that the other team in the deal might have the same view ?

I suggested that it might take Reimold and Loewen and a few balked- NO WAY to dealing Loewen. No way we give up anyone we still value for an allstar.

It is like Oriole prospects reach a peak where they are untouchable because they are certain future HOF'ers. Then after a few stumbles, we are "done" with them and now they are only worth other teams superstars.

I don't get it. But, if that is the way it is- I hope Loewen has another year or two where he fails to produce so we can flip him for Grady Sizemore.

[Mackus]

I suggested that it might take Reimold and Loewen and a few balked- NO WAY to dealing Loewen. No way we give up anyone we still value for an allstar.

Reimold and Liz are very valuable. Cabrera could be viewed in lots of ways, and my assumption for a Bay deal is that the Pirates are one of those teams that see his arm and think they can turn him into Randy Johnson. If they aren't interested in Cabrera, then I don't think we can get Bay, because other teams can offer better prospects than Liz and Reimold, whereas we can't unless we want to decimate our minor league system.

[NoVaO]

If you trade for Bay, and then extend Bedard and Roberts, then you still have no long-term foundation and in fact, likely weakened it. Any success would most likely be short-lived and the rebuilding process would be slowed down once again.

[Peace21]

My question to BB and the other insiders is..Will the Orioles be aggressive in making FA moves early to set up trades throughout the offseason?

[Sports Guy]

Here's Bay's PECOTA comps, pre 2007 season:

Name Year Score

1 Tim Salmon 1997 61

2 Dale Murphy 1984 58

3 Eric Davis 1991 54

4 Jesse Barfield 1988 52

5 Bobby Bonds 1974 52

6 Greg Vaughn 1994 50

7 Gil Hodges 1953 49

8 Jeromy Burnitz 1998 46

9 Lance Berkman 2004 46

10 Derrek Lee 2004 46

11 Jack Clark 1984 46

12 Chet Lemon 1983 43

13 Kevin Mitchell 1990 42

14 Larry Doby 1952 42

15 Pedro Guerrero 1985 40

16 Ken Harrelson 1970 39

17 Fred Lynn 1980 39

18 Al Smith 1956 38

19 Bobby Grich 1977 37

20 Willie McCovey 1966 37

I'm not super-high on Reimold and I think Cabrera is a reliever, but I'm not 100% sure about going for Bay.

So the list figures to be worse now.

Yea, forget Bay unless you can basically get him straight up for DCab.

I changed my mind...I wouldn't even put Reimold or Liz in the deal.

[nyjimbo]

Does any other old timers like me remember the O's trading for an "aging" former star from the National league before the 1966 season to go along with a mixture of young and experienced players? Someone named Frank something or other?

[Boy Howdy]

Does any other old timers like me remember the O's trading for an "aging" former star from the National league before the 1966 season to go along with a mixture of young and experienced players? Someone named Frank something or other?

Frank was a starter in the All-Star Game by age 20 and won the NL MVP award in his age 25 season.

Bay was a 25-y.o. rookie.

[bigbird]

My question to BB and the other insiders is..Will the Orioles be aggressive in making FA moves early to set up trades throughout the offseason?

I was told not to look for too many free agent signings. Only pitching and the bench. We'll see. Hopefully MacPhail wil be aggressive. It should be interesting to say the least.

[Leitch]

Does any other old timers like me remember the O's trading for an "aging" former star from the National league before the 1966 season to go along with a mixture of young and experienced players? Someone named Frank something or other?

Do you think Jason Bay is a first-ballot Hall Of Famer and one of the x(x is a single digit number) best outfielders in history?

[Camden_yardbird]

Jason Bay is streaky and I think will only get streakier as time goes on. The pirates are going to try and offload him this offseason and will be smart to get a lot of him. An outfield of Pearce, Nady, Doumit/ McCutecheon will be pretty solid in a year. As time goes on he will get slower as well making him a DH option at best.

I would rather see how Reimold turns out.

Bay is not Frank Robinson either.

[tropicos]

Let's say we trade DCab, Liz and Reimold for Bay. There could actually be a hidden benefit from this acquisition.

If the packages for Tejada are just downright horrible, i.e. not even worth trading him, then we'd probably have to keep him in the lineup for at least half a season.

If that's the case, and Bay is in the lineup protecting Tejada and Markakis, we could definitely see a boost in Tejada's stats, thus making him a more attractive trade candidate come the July deadline.