Flaherty as defensive replacement for Reynolds

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think he could probably do those things if he was willing to sacrifice 10-15 HR. Would you settle for that?

I'm not sure he can take a ball to RF and that's what I think he would need to do. But yeah I'll always go with the better production.

[Sports Guy]

Of course not (that he would be a disater at third), but 2010 may have been an outlair also. Maybe not as extreme as last year, but still an outliar. That's the nature of defensive metrics. You need 3-4 years of data and that data needs to be pro-rated and not averaged. I saw the UZR ratings as you did and was of the opinion that maybe he was improving and maybe our scouts saw something. But understanding the metrics (and what happened), I'm not going to be locked into an opinion that they did indicate a positive trend.

As I've said/indicated many times here, I've based my analysis off his career's work and not his performance last year.

And I don't believe you.

Because prior to last year, he was basically a slightly below average third baseman.

You keep saying you are looking at 5 years of data...Well, 5 years of data look poor because of one really bad year.

After looking at 4 years of data(2007-2010), what did that tell you about his defense?

You clearly are allowing 2011 to greatly influence your opinion here and are not giving enough credence to the previous 4 years, the fact that 3 of those 4 years were fine and the fact that in the last 2 years prior to coming here, he was showing improvement off of a down defensive season in 2008.

That is poor IMO.

Now, what I would say is that I do think its possible that he has lost confidence and will never regain it and because of that, what was done last year is really what is more important but we need to see if that is the case.

[Frobby]

prior to last year, he was basically a slightly below average third baseman.

You keep saying you are looking at 5 years of data...Well, 5 years of data look poor because of one really bad year.

After looking at 4 years of data(2007-2010), what did that tell you about his defense?

It tells me that out of 19 qualified 3B during that period, Reynolds was the 3rd-worst 3B, according to UZR. So I'd definitely say he was worse than just "slightly below average." But obviously, not nearly as bad as last year.

But aren't you just having a word game battle here? We all understand that Reynolds needs to field significantly better this year in order to be kept at 3B, unless there is simply no alternative.

[CA-ORIOLE]

And I don't believe you.

Because prior to last year, he was basically a slightly below average third baseman.

You keep saying you are looking at 5 years of data...Well, 5 years of data look poor because of one really bad year.

After looking at 4 years of data(2007-2010), what did that tell you about his defense?

You clearly are allowing 2011 to greatly influence your opinion here and are not giving enough credence to the previous 4 years, the fact that 3 of those 4 years were fine and the fact that in the last 2 years prior to coming here, he was showing improvement off of a down defensive season in 2008.

That is poor IMO.

Now, what I would say is that I do think its possible that he has lost confidence and will never regain it and because of that, what was done last year is really what is more important but we need to see if that is the case.

The only thing that is poor is your lack of intellect in understanding defensive metrics and getting wrapped up chasing single years worth of UZR performance. You want to heavily weigh one years performance as a signficant factor/trend where he had a plus 2.5 UZR (when his average before that was about minus 9, including minus 7.4 and minus 11 the two years before that) and apparently completely disregard what happened last year.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It tells me that out of 19 qualified 3B during that period, Reynolds was the 3rd-worst 3B, according to UZR. So I'd definitely say he was worse than just "slightly below average." But obviously, not nearly as bad as last year.

Not that hard to understand is it. If you were forced to make a prediction for his performance this year, what would it be?

1. Close to average based on his 2010 UZR of Plus 2.5 and his positive UZR "trend" prior to 2011.

2. Close to his historical track record.

3. Between his historical track record and epically horrible.

4. Epically horrible.

[Sports Guy]

The only thing that is poor is your lack of intellect in understanding defensive metrics and getting wrapped up chasing single years worth of UZR performance. You want to heavily weigh one years performance as a signficant factor/trend where he had a plus 2.5 UZR (when his average before that was minus 9+, including minus 7.4 and minus 11 the two years before that) and apparently completely disregard what happened last year.

LOL...This is incredible.

First of all, I am willing to take away 2010. I have said, that he has shown that he is a slightly below average third baseman. In 2010, he was above average. I have never said that is what he is.

What I have said is all factually correct.

If last year, Reynolds had a -5.7 UZR, you wouldn't be talking about this. You are allowing one year to effect your thinking, even if you aren't able to comprehend that you are doing that.

And again, that's fine with me because I could see that one year being such a problem that he never recovers. If that's your argument, its fine.

But stop preaching to me that you are using 5 years worth of data to prove your poor point because you aren't...You are using 1 years worth of data that makes the other 4 years worth of data look far worse.

Stop acting like you have some great understand of how to apply this because you don't. You are allowing one year to greatly influence your thought process.

I am using 4 years(see, 4 is more than 1 so your assertion that I am using obne years of data is really dumb) of data to come up with the conclusion that I would expect him to cost us roughly .5- 1 win per season...to me, that's not really that awful. It doesn't really bother me that much and it certainly doesn't put him on the level of some awful third baseman defensively to the point where he is really hurting the team. What he did last year really hurts the team.

[Frobby]

Not that hard to understand is it. If you were forced to make a prediction for his performance this year, what would it be?

1. Close to average based on his 2010 UZR of Plus 2.5 and his positive UZR "trend" prior to 2011.

2. Close to his historical track record.

3. Between his historical track record and epically horrible.

4. Epically horrible.

Put it this way: I am hoping for Reynolds to be no worse than -10 UZR this season. He could be better than that, but anything better than -10 would be gravy.

[Sports Guy]

Not that hard to understand is it. If you were forced to make a prediction for his performance this year, what would it be?

1. Close to average based on his 2010 UZR of Plus 2.5 and his positive UZR "trend" prior to 2011.

2. Close to his historical track record.

3. Between his historical track record and epically horrible.

4. Epically horrible.

Cost us between .5-1 win...IE, what he has done historically.

[CA-ORIOLE]

LOL...This is incredible.

First of all, I am willing to take away 2010. .

LOL, it is. If you take away 2010 and 2011 he was about a minus 9 defender at third base by UZR/150. That would be bad.

. I have said, that he has shown that he is a slightly below average third baseman.

Minus 9 (ignoring the last two years) or minus 10.5 (including them) is not slightly below average and he's actually worse by DRS.

But stop preaching to me that you are using 5 years worth of data to prove your poor point because you aren't...You are using 1 years worth of data that makes the other 4 years worth of data look far worse.

No, I'm actually using using his rate of performance (cumulative) over 5 years. The plus 2.5 makes him look good also and he had 28 more games at 2.5 than he did at third last year. It's not going to make the huge difference you think it is. Not even a run on the 150 rate if you normalized his 2011 to average and kept the plus 2.5. You just want to selectively add/subtract what you want to make things look better than what they are.

What I have said is all factually correct.

You can make individual statements that are correct but don't follow a flow of logic. That's really the problem here.

If last year, Reynolds had a -5.7 UZR, you wouldn't be talking about this. You are allowing one year to effect your thinking, even if you aren't able to comprehend that you are doing that.

Did he have a minus 5.7 uzr last year? Did he look like a minus 5.7 uzr last year? Of course it would effect my thinking. If I thought his UZR though 2008-2010 was a positive trend, I'd of course reconsider that line of thinking based on what happened. You are the one that can't. That's because the numbers are unstable and may not reflect reality on a year-year basis.

I would expect him to cost us roughly 1 win per season...to me, that's not really that awful.

Guess what? A minus 10 uzr is one win a year which is basically what I've been saying/projecting. That's not even taking into account the common sense that would tell you he may be far worse (which I've kept out of the argument). Minus 10 is bad. It's not slightly below average. It's well below average. So yeah we're talking about a guy with an average 1.8/1.9 fWAR and worse by rWAR. What's the issue? I think we agree on this.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Cost us between .5-1 win...IE, what he has done historically.

Historlcally he's between 10.5 and 12 by UZR/DRS per 150 games. If you want to DH him then he'll cost us less runs on defense.

[mikegallo]

Given that 2011 was the most recent year and the only year he played in the AL at Camden with the Orioles I think that when projecting his D going forward you should weigh 2011 more heavily then previous years in the NL when he was younger.

The simple fact is Reynolds as one of the worst 3rd basemen in baseball year in and year out. He had one year where on D metric rated him average and the scouting community has him labeled as a butcher. Going into 2012 I would say a -10 UZR/costing us at least a win on D should be roughly our best case expectation. I would expect his D to regress toward average from where he was last year and would be happy with only a -10 UZR this year.

Anything worse and I think he will not be starting for us at 3rd after the break, nor would I want him to. I see no reason to not let it play out until then bet this is a subject where I think everyone basically agrees. If he can improve on last year alot he can be passable bottom 5 D at 3rd, If he is worse or close to last year we have to go another direction (Antonelli/Ryan hopefully or a trade).

[Nigel Tufnel]

Historlcally he's between 10.5 and 12 by UZR/DRS per 150 games. If you want to DH him then he'll cost us less runs on defense.

I can't remember - what's the adjustment for moving to the right on the defensive spectrum? If you DH him, you save the runs that he would have lost you on defense, but then his bat doesn't play as well so you end up losing runs on offense. How bad would he have to be at 3B to make the move to DH worth it?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I can't remember - what's the adjustment for moving to the right on the defensive spectrum? If you DH him, you save the runs that he would have lost you on defense, but then his bat doesn't play as well so you end up losing runs on offense. How bad would he have to be at 3B to make the move to DH worth it?

Yeah that's basically it. You "theoretically" sacrafice WAR by moving him to DH. I think there is a 20 run adjustment between DH (minus 17.5) and 3b (+2.5) but am too lazy to look these up. I think the DH adjustment is overstated as the basis of it is a player who can't play the field at all, and more and more of the DH's are moving to positional flexibility which also gives you some roster flexibility.

It's also a big adjustment for first/third and Reynolds overall WAR value may have been run down by playing first in small increments with highly negative UZR's. So, "assuming" Reynolds could play at a minus 10 at third base for 150 games that would likely be his best positional value (that's without taking into account other possible player combinations and possible significant improvement at first base).

[Frobby]

I can't remember - what's the adjustment for moving to the right on the defensive spectrum? If you DH him, you save the runs that he would have lost you on defense, but then his bat doesn't play as well so you end up losing runs on offense. How bad would he have to be at 3B to make the move to DH worth it?

Yeah that's basically it. You "theoretically" sacrafice WAR by moving him to DH. I think there is a 20 run adjustment between DH (minus 17.5) and 3b (+2.5) but am too lazy to look these up. I think the DH adjustment is overstated as the basis of it is a player who can't play the field at all, and more and more of the DH's are moving to positional flexibility which also gives you some roster flexibility.

It's also a big adjustment for first/third and Reynolds overall WAR value may be run down by playing first in small increments with higly negative UZR's. So assuming Reynolds could play at a minus 10 at third base for 150 games that would be his best positional value (without taking into account other possible player combinations and possible improvement at first base).

I think the "standard" adjustments are irrelevant at this point. You'd need to look at the specific players who play on the Orioles and ask (1) how much will you gain defensively compared to whoever would take Reynolds' place, and (2) how much offense you will lose by giving AB to whoever is now at 3B and taking AB away from others.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think the "standard" adjustments are irrelevant at this point. You'd need to look at the specific players who play on the Orioles and ask (1) how much will you gain defensively compared to whoever would take Reynolds' place, and (2) how much offense you will lose by giving AB to whoever is now at 3B and taking AB away from others.

Yeah, I did mention that as a consideration in my post ..... and in the offseason as to why Reynolds should perhaps go to DH (before we got Betemit) or first base. I think it is relevant now because we did choose a path here and are apparrently going to stick with it for awhile.