Hammel-Chen-Tillman-Britton-Gonzalez

[Flash- bd]

I'm fine with this rotation going into next year, especially if you still have Matusz/Arrieta in the pen ready to fill in in case of injury or ineffectiveness. It's a rotation that has a very high ceiling and a pretty high floor, IMO.

I was really impressed by Britton's stuff on Tuesday and I think with his stuff and his really unflappable confidence (something I'm afraid Arrieta and Matusz don't have) he won't struggle to be a success short-term and long-term.

Seems to me acquiring a long-term option like Greinke is actually unneeded and an inefficient use of resources.

Thoughts? I know opinions will vary wildly on this.

[Pickles]

I'm fine with this rotation going into next year, especially if you still have Matusz/Arrieta in the pen ready to fill in in case of injury or ineffectiveness. It's a rotation that has a very high ceiling and a pretty high floor, IMO.

I was really impressed by Britton's stuff on Tuesday and I think with his stuff and his really unflappable confidence (something I'm afraid Arrieta and Matusz don't have) he won't struggle to be a success short-term and long-term.

Seems to me acquiring a long-term option like Greinke is actually unneeded and an inefficient use of resources.

Thoughts? I know opinions will vary wildly on this.

I have to see a whole heck of a lot more from Britton, Tillman, and Gonzalez before I'm "comfortable" just penciling them into the rotation next year.

[Orioles0615]

I have to see a whole heck of a lot more from Britton, Tillman, and Gonzalez before I'm "comfortable" just penciling them into the rotation next year.

Yea because even if they keep pitching decent, the league will figure them out and then they will have to adjust to the rest of the league adjusting to them.

[Pickles]

Yea because even if they keep pitching decent, the league will figure them out and then they will have to adjust to the rest of the league adjusting to them.

Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton have all had stretches of good pitching in the past and yet none of them have established themselves as a ML starter yet. That isn't a coincident.

Now maybe paying Grienke 25 mil a year isn't the most effecient way to spend money, and maybe he wouldn't even come here, and maybe PA won't bump payroll enough to make it practical anyway, but I'm sure not crossing him off my list because Tillman's had a couple good starts.

Grienke

Hammels

Chen

And then two of Britton, Tillman, Gonzalez, Arrieta, Matusz, w Bundy, and a step behind him, Guasman, waiting in the wings, has the potential to be a very good rotation. Like, if we got a third baseman, the kind of rotation that could pitch us into October. Of course, we're not signing Grienke, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't consider it.

[Orioles0615]

Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton have all had stretches of good pitching in the past and yet none of them have established themselves as a ML starter yet. That isn't a coincident.

Now maybe paying Grienke 25 mil a year isn't the most effecient way to spend money, and maybe he wouldn't even come here, and maybe PA won't bump payroll enough to make it practical anyway, but I'm sure not crossing him off my list because Tillman's had a couple good starts.

Grienke

Hammels

Chen

And then two of Britton, Tillman, Gonzalez, Arrieta, Matusz, w Bundy, and a step behind him, Guasman, waiting in the wings, has the potential to be a very good rotation. Like, if we got a third baseman, the kind of rotation that could pitch us into October. Of course, we're not signing Grienke, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't consider it.

With DD's no more then 3 years for a FA rule I don't see them signing a big name pitcher, but things could change, who knows!

[Pickles]

With DD's no more then 3 years for a FA rule I don't see them signing a big name pitcher, but things could change, who knows!

I don't think they sign him either, but I'd be damn excited if they did.

I know DD said something along those lines this offseason, but I'm fairly certain he signed Pedro Martinez to a big time contract, so I don't believe it's something handed down from Sinai for him.

[oriole]

Not sure I like that rotation. How about signing Greinke, trading for Wandy, and leaving a single spot for the calvary to fight over?

Greinke

Wandy

Chen

Hammel

Britton/Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman

Then consider that Gonzalez and Wada are options down the road and Bundy could slide in later in the year possibly.

Basically just solidify the top of the rotation and we're golden.

[Flash- bd]

Not sure I like that rotation. How about signing Greinke, trading for Wandy, and leaving a single spot for the calvary to fight over?

Greinke

Wandy

Chen

Hammel

Britton/Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman

Then consider that Gonzalez and Wada are options down the road and Bundy could slide in later in the year possibly.

Basically just solidify the top of the rotation and we're golden.

I don't think people realize how lucky we are to have two guys with stuff as good as Tillman and Britton (esp. w/ depth like Matusz and Arrieta). A lot of teams would kill for that, and wouldn't hesitate dedicating 2 rotation spots to them.

Look around the league. We've been through so much disappointment as O's fans I think we have a hard time realizing when we have it good.

[isestrex]

As far as upside goes, the organization still has lots of depth in the starting rotation. That's one of the reasons why I've never been big on the Greinke/Garza bandwagon this season. Maybe if we use a few of our "upside arms" to acquire depth (like Headley), then a move for another starting pitcher would make sense.

But there's just too much depth of upside right now.... You have to trust that at least half of them will fulfill their full potential which is really all you need.

Of course, Moose would argue that this team's pitching development percentage is in the single digits and nowhere near 50%... and he's right

[sangar]

I'm fine with this rotation going into next year, especially if you still have Matusz/Arrieta in the pen ready to fill in in case of injury or ineffectiveness. It's a rotation that has a very high ceiling and a pretty high floor, IMO.

I don't think it is accurate to say any of them have a "pretty high" floor.

[Flash- bd]

I don't think it is accurate to say any of them have a "pretty high" floor.

Why? Britton posted a 4.61 ERA in a pretty bad rookie year. That's probably his floor. Hammel at worst probably regresses to the average 90-100 ERA+ guy he was before this year. Chen doesn't seem to me a guy likely to be above 4.50-4.75. Tillman's history is borderline useless because anyone who's watching him knows he's a different pitcher with different stuff. It's as useful comparing his track record with him as it is comparing , say, Brad Lincoln's. Guys with stuff as good as Tillman can pitch badly but still finish with an ERA of 4.50-4.75.

For me that's a pretty high floor. Gonzalez is the only one of those four I'd argue doesn't have a high floor, but you could even make an argument for him.

[Pickles]

Why? Britton posted a 4.61 ERA in a pretty bad rookie year. That's probably his floor. Hammel at worst probably regresses to the average 90-100 ERA+ guy he was before this year. Chen doesn't seem to me a guy likely to be above 4.50-4.75. Tillman's history is borderline useless because anyone who's watching him knows he's a different pitcher with different stuff. It's as useful comparing his track record with him as it is comparing , say, Brad Lincoln's. Guys with stuff as good as Tillman can pitch badly but still finish with an ERA of 4.50-4.75.

For me that's a pretty high floor. Gonzalez is the only one of those four I'd argue doesn't have a high floor, but you could even make an argument for him.

They're pitchers. They're floor is they injury themselves tomorrow and never throw another ML pitch. Obviously, that's a worst case scenario, but I think you're being awful, awful rosy about your floors for these guys.

Didn't the new Tillman just give up 7 R in 2/3 of an inning in his previous start?

[Flash- bd]

They're pitchers. They're floor is they injury themselves tomorrow and never throw another ML pitch.

Right, so no pitcher has a high floor, then, including Greinke, Hamels, Peavy or anyone else we might sign. We should enter the season with 10 viable SPs.

Obviously, that's a worst case scenario, but I think you're being awful, awful rosy about your floors for these guys.

Didn't the new Tillman just give up 7 R in 2/3 of an inning in his previous start?

I know people are going to interpret me as being rosy, here. Trust me, I'm not unaware of the way these assertions will come to many people as decidedly optimistic. I don't care though, because I'm quite certain they're true.

Tillman gave up 1 ER, yes, in 1 IP, if Reynolds makes a routine play. He also gave up 1 ER in yesterday's 1st inning. But go ahead, fault him for all 7 of those runs-- he'd still have 15 2/3 IP with 8 ER allowed. If that's your number in a stretch where you have your worst start of your season, your floor is relatively high.

[sangar]

Why? Britton posted a 4.61 ERA in a pretty bad rookie year. That's probably his floor. Hammel at worst probably regresses to the average 90-100 ERA+ guy he was before this year. Chen doesn't seem to me a guy likely to be above 4.50-4.75. Tillman's history is borderline useless because anyone who's watching him knows he's a different pitcher with different stuff. It's as useful comparing his track record with him as it is comparing , say, Brad Lincoln's. Guys with stuff as good as Tillman can pitch badly but still finish with an ERA of 4.50-4.75.

For me that's a pretty high floor. Gonzalez is the only one of those four I'd argue doesn't have a high floor, but you could even make an argument for him.

Britton has not shown that his rookie year is his floor. In fact, this year has been quite a bit worse.

If Hammel regresses to a 90 ERA+ pitcher, he will be far below "pretty high."

Chen is an unknown as far as longevity is concerned. Pitchers coming out of the Nippon leagues commonly have not demonstrated the ability to stay good over the long haul.

Tillman certainly looks better but his floor was ably demonstrated in Minnesota.

No doubt, they all have the potential as you suggest and we could have a very good rotation. They could all, just as easily, turn into 4/5 guys or AAAA fodder. I will be decidedly unhappy if this is the rotation with which we enter next season.

[Flash- bd]

Britton has not shown that his rookie year is his floor. In fact, this year has been quite a bit worse.

If Hammel regresses to a 90 ERA+ pitcher, he will be far below "pretty high."

Chen is an unknown as far as longevity is concerned. Pitchers coming out of the Nippon leagues commonly have not demonstrated the ability to stay good over the long haul.

Tillman certainly looks better but his floor was ably demonstrated in Minnesota.

No doubt, they all have the potential as you suggest and we could have a very good rotation. They could all, just as easily, turn into 4/5 guys or AAAA fodder. I will be decidedly unhappy if this is the rotation with which we enter next season.

How is 90+ ERA+ not a high floor? This has the potential to be a silly semantic argument, but seriously? I think common sense will tell you that to say someone's absolute floor is 90-100 ERA+ is to say they have a high floor.