Possible Tejada scenario?

[DrungoHazewood]

If you looked at from a DH point of view, ie taking position out of considersation, Burrell and Ensberg are very bit the offensive player Tejada is.

You aren't paying attention to what gesch or I are saying...Improve the defense...Improve the bullpen and the depth...GEt another top of the rotation starter.

Get enough offensive help where we can still score 820-850 runs.

You can do all of this without Tejada.

If you take away Tejada and replace him with a guy like Aybar you'd have to make up about 125-150 runs to get to 850. Plausible, but might be a stretch. For example, Soriano + Tex replacing the O's '06 LF and DH would probably net the team ~100 runs.

To win 90 games while scoring 825 you'd have to allow about 750, or about 150 fewer than this year.

Basically, to get to 90 wins without Tejada you have to come up with 275 runs somewhere, pitching, defense, and offense.

[markdublya]

Would you trade Bedard & Markakis for Tejada?

Aybar and Markakis are interchangeable in your opinion?

[Sports Guy]

If you take away Tejada and replace him with a guy like Aybar you'd have to make up about 125-150 runs to get to 850. Plausible, but might be a stretch. For example, Soriano + Tex replacing the O's '06 LF and DH would probably net the team ~100 runs.

To win 90 games while scoring 825 you'd have to allow about 750, or about 150 fewer than this year.

Basically, to get to 90 wins without Tejada you have to come up with 275 runs somewhere, pitching, defense, and offense.

Ensberg, Aybar, Kotchman and Burrell help get alot of the runs...Then, you hope for BRob to be back to where he was before his injury and Markakis to be that much better this year.

Hernandez is likely to be similar next year to this past year and i will say Mora is in the 750 OPS range, or about the same as this year but he could be better.

You felt this team would score 800 runs this year. The team i am talking about, with Cruz, Millar and a Valentin, a much better back up catcher would score more than this year's team.

Plus, the defense and pitching should be much better.

I still am not sure that it is enough but it is a better team for the future and doesn't have any bad long term contracts that could bog us down.

It still goes back to DCab, Loewen and maybe Penn.

[El Gordo]

It's not like Aybar Kotchman and Santana are scrub prospects. These guys are very very good prospects.

Santana has already proven that he can compete over the course of a full season, and would have been our second best starter this year. Not to mention the guy turns 24 this December.

Your assumptions are that Pete spends money, and that those guys would actually sign here.

Very very good prospects have a 3 in 10 chance of getting a cup of coffee. A 1 in 10 chance of becoming an impact player in the Majors.

[Fan4Life]

Simplify it for me. How many runs do we have to make up got get to 90 wins with Tejada right now?

In previous threads I believe the number was 200... so we need to devise reasonable scenarios that can get us there... a large part of it will depend on improvement from our young pitchers.

[geschinger]

Very very good prospects have a 3 in 10 chance of getting a cup of coffee. A 1 in 10 chance of becoming an impact player in the Majors.

If you are talking guys at low class A, maybe. The prospects discussed in a potential Angel deal have already had a cup of coffee or have about a 95% chance of having a cup of coffee. The chance of becoming a good MLBer are also much much higher.

[El Gordo]

You are assuming he isn't coming here, be careful.

$1000.00 down in Vegas that he isn't coming to B'more. So many good reasons for him not to. Can't think of one good reason why he would want to.

[Fan4Life]

$1000.00 down in Vegas that he isn't coming to B'more. So many good reasons for him not to. Can't think of one good reason why he would want to.

Interesting... what would you place down in Vegas against AROD coming here? Has to be at least 5 times higher, right?

[Sports Guy]

Simplify it for me. How many runs do we have to make up got get to 90 wins with Tejada right now?

The formula is 10 runs= 1 win.

We need to make up 250-300 runs to compete.

[El Gordo]

Interesting... what would you place down in Vegas against AROD coming here? Has to be at least 5 times higher, right?

That's the most I can afford.

[El Gordo]

The formula is 10 runs= 1 win.

We need to make up 250-300 runs to compete.

We need to win 95-100 games to compete? I would think we get the WC at least with that many wins.

[mweb]

Santana, Lackey,

Wood, Kendrick,

Aybar, Kotchman

I want one from each group for Tejada...

Well then you want Tejada to remain an Oriole. Nothing wrong with that, just pointing out there is no chance of getting one from each group, even if you asked for the weaker choice in each group.

[Sports Guy]

Well then you want Tejada to remain an Oriole. Nothing wrong with that, just pointing out there is no chance of getting one from each group, even if you asked for the weaker choice in each group.

Yea...I could see them dealing ONE of Lackey, Santana, Wood and Kendrick but not 2 of them.

[mweb]

Yea...I could see them dealing ONE of Lackey, Santana, Wood and Kendrick but not 2 of them.

SG, since you now want to trade Tejada so much, would you trade him for Santana and Aybar? Lets just assume that they won't up that offer for a moment.

[Sports Guy]

SG, since you now want to trade Tejada so much, would you trade him for Santana and Aybar? Lets just assume that they won't up that offer for a moment.

That's an awfully good question.

If you want to assume that they will not add anyone, my response would be i would see what other offers we have.

I would also need to see what else we have done this offseason.

Ultimately though, i pull the trigger on the deal, assuming it the best offer on the table.

I, and many others have said it before...It wouldn't shock me if we look back on that deal and wish we just had Santana, much less Aybar.

I have alot of belief in Loewen, DCab and Penn. However, i still think we need another guy who could be top of the rotation or, in the case of Santana, pretty much is already.