ESPN the magazine predicts the AL east

[TonySoprano]

Hey, ESPN...

Let’s face it, chemistry comes from winning games, to start off with. You can start with good chemistry out in the spring. But if you go 0-30 in April, I bet your chemistry isn’t real good. It runs hand in hand.

[weams]

So I did a crazy thing and asked people at ESPN how the projections are determined.

First, the basic projections are the result of ZiPS.

A separate team wanted to do something interesting and added the chemistry part of it.

So...I am not sure how we can claim Bristol bias or any other Baltimore blitz sort of thing. It appears that the projection models feel unsure about players who have inconsistent recent history. All it knows are the numbers. It does not know about aspects that are not considered, so it may be wrong. I do think it is a poor argument though if anyone claims these basic projections are dishonest.

Re: chemistry. No clue.

Thanks for the effort. I'll stick with Bristol Bias.

The whole thing is a phony article for the masses. Ill keep that Baltimore chip on my shoulder thank you.

[weams]

So I did a crazy thing and asked people at ESPN how the projections are determined.

First, the basic projections are the result of ZiPS.

A separate team wanted to do something interesting and added the chemistry part of it.

So...I am not sure how we can claim Bristol bias or any other Baltimore blitz sort of thing. It appears that the projection models feel unsure about players who have inconsistent recent history. All it knows are the numbers. It does not know about aspects that are not considered, so it may be wrong. I do think it is a poor argument though if anyone claims these basic projections are dishonest.

Re: chemistry. No clue.

By the way. Welcome to the board. Very glad to have you.

[Stotle]

Bogaerts certainly has a chance to make that sort of impact, but just like any uberprospect, there's also a chance he'll fall flat on his face. I feel like espn (see ranking over hardy) and some on here are counting Boston's chickens for them far before they've hatched.

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Not substantively different than most Baltimore fans re: Manny last year. The cream of the crop tends to play well. It doesn't always happen that way, but being confident in Bogaerts seems like a pretty easy position to defend.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Not substantively different than most Baltimore fans re: Manny last year. The cream of the crop tends to play well. It doesn't always happen that way, but being confident in Bogaerts seems like a pretty easy position to defend.

202 PA for .739 OPS and highlight reel defense at a position he'd never really played before > 50 PA for .684 OPS. People were still talking about trades for Chase Headley following the 2012 season. It does seem substantively different.

[Stotle]

202 PA for .739 OPS and highlight reel defense at a position he'd never really played before > 50 PA for .684 OPS. People were still talking about trades for Chase Headley following the 2012 season. It does seem substantively different.

I think your proximity to the O's probably colors your opinion. I happened to be at a huge scouting event during two of the World Series games and watched with evaluators that were absolutely blown away by Bogaerts (both the quality of his at bats and how he handled third base with only 20 some odd games of MiLB experience there).

It may seem like nothing to you, but the 70-bip delta in average to on base for Bogaerts (as opposed to Manny's 30-bip delta) is a big deal to some folks when considering overall offensive potential, as well (and Manny didn't improve on that 30-bip delta between his partial year and first full year, as we all know).

[incubus]

I meant the "that's just your opinion" GIF, but I hadn't seen that one before.:thumbsup1:

[incubus]

The guy who could blow past both of them if he makes enough contact is Javier Baez. That could be a legit 40+ home run shortstop, which is other worldly.

Forgive my ignorance, I have not heard of Baez, what Org is he in?

[BohKnowsBmore]

I think your proximity to the O's probably colors your opinion. I happened to be at a huge scouting event during two of the World Series games and watched with evaluators that were absolutely blown away by Bogaerts (both the quality of his at bats and how he handled third base with only 20 some odd games of MiLB experience there).

It may seem like nothing to you, but the 70-bip delta in average to on base for Bogaerts (as opposed to Manny's 30-bip delta) is a big deal to some folks when considering overall offensive potential, as well (and Manny didn't improve on that 30-bip delta between his partial year and first full year, as we all know).

At no point have I said he doesn't have a ton of potential. I believe I've either alluded to that or outright said it in all of my posts on the topic. All I said is that some seem to consider him a sure thing, which is a bit hasty in my opinion. It's great that scouts are blown away with his potential (not so great for the os), that doesn't really counter what I've said.

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[Stotle]

At no point have I said he doesn't have a ton of potential. I believe I've either alluded to that or outright said it in all of my posts on the topic. All I said is that some seem to consider him a sure thing, which is a bit hasty in my opinion. It's great that scouts are blown away with his potential (not so great for the os), that doesn't really counter what I've said.

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You seemed to be comparing Machado's first 200 ABs and Bogaerts' first 50 or so and using that as evidence that the two were substantively different from a risk profile perspective entering their respective first full seasons. My point was that your viewing of Machado every day as an O's fan, and reliance on limited stats, may be coloring your perspective. And that those putting eyes on Bogaerts might not see the same "risks" you might find on a straight stat comparison.

The avg/obp delta is a feather in Bogaerts' cap on the statistical side, in any event. Obviously right now, even with the injury, you'd rather depend on Machado's production than Bogaerts', even with the added value of Bogaerts playing shortstop.

[Stotle]

Forgive my ignorance, I have not heard of Baez, what Org is he in?

Cubs. Starting at Triple-A Iowa and could be in Wrigley soon. Sheffield-esque bat speed, 450+ ft bombs on the regular. Very aggressive approach but is hammering Major and Minor League pitching alike. Could be a generational offensive player, or settle in as an above-average corner defender if he can't handle short and pitchers exploit his aggressiveness.

[Babkins]

I think your proximity to the O's probably colors your opinion. I happened to be at a huge scouting event during two of the World Series games and watched with evaluators that were absolutely blown away by Bogaerts (both the quality of his at bats and how he handled third base with only 20 some odd games of MiLB experience there).

It may seem like nothing to you, but the 70-bip delta in average to on base for Bogaerts (as opposed to Manny's 30-bip delta) is a big deal to some folks when considering overall offensive potential, as well (and Manny didn't improve on that 30-bip delta between his partial year and first full year, as we all know).

Translation, please? Humble layman here.

[Stotle]

Translation, please? Humble layman here.

Take OBP and subtract AVG. Shows how dependent OBP is on a players batting average -- the more dependent OBP is on AVG the less dependent the OBP production is for a young hitter.

A little more complicated, but that's the gist. Also the higher the delta (difference between the two) the better overall approach/feel for strike zone as a general matter.

[Babkins]

Got it. Thanks!

[BohKnowsBmore]

You seemed to be comparing Machado's first 200 ABs and Bogaerts' first 50 or so and using that as evidence that the two were substantively different from a risk profile perspective entering their respective first full seasons. My point was that your viewing of Machado every day as an O's fan, and reliance on limited stats, may be coloring your perspective. And that those putting eyes on Bogaerts might not see the same "risks" you might find on a straight stat comparison.

The avg/obp delta is a feather in Bogaerts' cap on the statistical side, in any event. Obviously right now, even with the injury, you'd rather depend on Machado's production than Bogaerts', even with the added value of Bogaerts playing shortstop.

And that was in direct response to you mentioning that people around here were treating Machado in the same fashion as some are treating Bogaerts now. My point was only that OH members, O's fans, other commentators, etc. had much more justification to believe that Machado had established himself as a + major league player. All I was saying is that I am not ready to hop on board with Bogaerts > Hardy or any form of anointing him as a + in the Red Sox column of a Sox-Orioles comparison. Not sure why you bring up my O's fandom as you are the one who initially introduced Machado to this discussion.