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ESPN the magazine predicts the AL east

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

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Fister has elbow inflammation. It appears they would have missed him anyway.

I know but he was very good for them. The Tigers lost Iglesias for a long time also, Peralta left. The bottom line is the wild card teams are what matter in the Central and West. The Indians took advantage of their division down the stretch.

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

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I do think Boston is in a position where their performance could be impacted by a couple big injuries (like most teams), and they have some players that are pretty big risks in that department (Napoli, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Buchholz). If the team stays relatively healthy, I think they can fit into that upper-80s to low-90s win spectrum. Bogaerts has a chance to make a Machadoian impact and may be a better overall hitter. I'm probably less confident in Boston than I am in Tampa, but sure I'll gladly make a bragging rights wager. Again, one I hope I lose!

What do you think of their rotation after Buchholz and Lester? I am not sold on Peavy in the AL East-I don't think he will be bad but not great either. I can't see Lackey matching what he did last year. Koji can't be as dominant. I think Pedroia will have a better year but I can't see the group of Ortiz, Lackey, Victorino, Nava and Napoli matching what they did last year in total? What do you think of Middlebrooks?, he could be a key player for them this year.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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What do you think of their rotation after Buchholz and Lester? I am not sold on Peavy in the AL East-I don't think he will be bad but not great either. I can't see Lackey matching what he did last year. Koji can't be as dominant. I think Pedroia will have a better year but I can't see the group of Ortiz, Lackey, Victorino, Nava and Napoli matching what they did last year in total? What do you think of Middlebrooks?, he could be a key player for them this year.

I don't love the rotation. Lackey out pitched his peripherals and would seem to be a candidate for regression. I do wonder if, given the depth of the farm system, they ultimately pony-up for Samrdzija. I think Uehara will be a good closer. He doesn't have to match his dominance last year to be one of the more consistent dudes in the back of a pen.

I think Middlebrooks has the potential to be an average Major Leaguer. It will be interesting to see what kind of a leash he gets. Ditto JBJ. Boston FO does a decent good job figuring out defensive positioning, platoons, etc. My confidence in Bogaerts as a good contributor tips the scales for me.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I know but he was very good for them. The Tigers lost Iglesias for a long time also, Peralta left. The bottom line is the wild card teams are what matter in the Central and West. The Indians took advantage of their division down the stretch.

I think the WC could be tough with Cleveland and the Royals in the central and two of Texas, Oakland, and Anaheim in the West. I also think Baltimore could easily fit in with that grouping if some things break right on the mound, Machado is not hampered, Hardy doesn't see a big regression, and Davis' continues to be an elite contributor.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think the WC could be tough with Cleveland and the Royals in the central and two of Texas, Oakland, and Anaheim in the West. I also think Baltimore could easily fit in with that grouping if some things break right on the mound, Machado is not hampered, Hardy doesn't see a big regression, and Davis' continues to be an elite contributor.

You don't think Oakland is devastated with the two rotation losses?

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survivedc Major Leaguer

survivedc

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I do think Boston is in a position where their performance could be impacted by a couple big injuries (like most teams), and they have some players that are pretty big risks in that department (Napoli, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Buchholz). If the team stays relatively healthy, I think they can fit into that upper-80s to low-90s win spectrum. Bogaerts has a chance to make a Machadoian impact and may be a better overall hitter. I'm probably less confident in Boston than I am in Tampa, but sure I'll gladly make a bragging rights wager. Again, one I hope I lose!

Stotle, Do you think that Bogaerts will be an overall better player than Machado? Or just has the potential to be better offensively, but not enough that it offsets Machado's defense?

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Stotle, Do you think that Bogaerts will be an overall better player than Machado? Or just has the potential to be better offensively, but not enough that it offsets Machado's defense?

Before either debuted I had Bogaerts slightly ahead of Machado. Now that Machado has a year plus of great defense and impressive for his age offense under his belt, you have to give him the nod.

As far as overall value, with Manny at 3b and Bogaerts at ss I'd have to think it's close. I like the ceiling in Bogaerts' bat more, but the upper projections for Machado could be pretty special if he figures out his contact rate and grows into that over-the-fence pop.

The guy who could blow past both of them if he makes enough contact is Javier Baez. That could be a legit 40+ home run shortstop, which is other worldly.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I'd be devastated if Tillman and Chen were out for the year. Even if Gausman was good.

But if Guasman was really good, and you had enough depth at AAA to take on the innings, you'd still have a nice little rotation. Not dominant, but good enough to get the job done. Leaves no margin for error, though.

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Kalkan AA

Kalkan

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So I did a crazy thing and asked people at ESPN how the projections are determined.

First, the basic projections are the result of ZiPS.

A separate team wanted to do something interesting and added the chemistry part of it.

So...I am not sure how we can claim Bristol bias or any other Baltimore blitz sort of thing. It appears that the projection models feel unsure about players who have inconsistent recent history. All it knows are the numbers. It does not know about aspects that are not considered, so it may be wrong. I do think it is a poor argument though if anyone claims these basic projections are dishonest.

Re: chemistry. No clue.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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I do think Boston is in a position where their performance could be impacted by a couple big injuries (like most teams), and they have some players that are pretty big risks in that department (Napoli, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Buchholz). If the team stays relatively healthy, I think they can fit into that upper-80s to low-90s win spectrum. Bogaerts has a chance to make a Machadoian impact and may be a better overall hitter. I'm probably less confident in Boston than I am in Tampa, but sure I'll gladly make a bragging rights wager. Again, one I hope I lose!

Bogaerts certainly has a chance to make that sort of impact, but just like any uberprospect, there's also a chance he'll fall flat on his face. I feel like espn (see ranking over hardy) and some on here are counting Boston's chickens for them far before they've hatched.

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