Some info

[Fairfax Bird]

I suspect that Felix Hernandez will have a better career than Erik Bedard, but he's not quite an ace as he approaches his 22nd birthday. Nevertheless, in 2007 the 21-year-old Hernandez was the No. 1 starter on a team that won 88 games.

Here are the 2008 Bill James projections for Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez:

Bedard 32 GS, 210 IP, 13-11 WL, 207 K, 78 BB, .369 ERA

Hernandez 32 GS, 216 IP, 13-11 WL, 205 K, 71 BB, .371 ERA

If traded to Seattle, perhaps Bedard could be the Mariner ace for one year before Hernandez takes over.

I think James's projection for Bedard is very poor. He actually projects Rich Hill to have a lower ERA. Terrible. However, I agree that F.Hernandez will be the ace of that team in 2009.

[birdsncrabs]

hehe...ofcourse i'm an M's fan. The point of my post was to say if you want to get our untouchable than offer up your untouchable otherwise there's no point.

Okay, no problem. How about we offer up an untouchable top of the rotation pitcher?

[bummer]

Can someone explain why Bedard went on that hot streak? Just getting better with age? Add a pitch? New delivery? And also, after those 3 months of dominance, why in August did he go back to the "normal" Bedard, posting an ERA in the 3.60's? Hot streak over?

[ChaosLex]

Can someone explain why Bedard went on that hot streak? Just getting better with age? Add a pitch? New delivery? And also, after those 3 months of dominance, why in August did he go back to the "normal" Bedard, posting an ERA in the 3.60's? Hot streak over?

I'd hardly call an ERA of 3.60 in the American League East the end of a hot streak.

[skiba7]

I think James's projection for Bedard is very poor. He actually projects Rich Hill to have a lower ERA. Terrible. However, I agree that F.Hernandez will be the ace of that team in 2009.

Again, James doesn't do the pitching projections, but I'd be willing to bet that Hill has a better era next season.

[Lamda]

if he was untouchable than you wouldn't have made it public that he was on the market huh? hehe. If you want to keep him and try to re-sign him or watch him walk in two years - that is ofcourse your teams will.

[OsLuvrInKy]

if he was untouchable than you wouldn't have made it public that he was on the market huh? hehe. If you want to keep him and try to re-sign him or watch him walk in two years - that is ofcourse your teams will.

Not a problem. I can just as easily enjoy watching LA take your division this year.

[dabirds]

I believe what was said is that Bavasi will not trade Jones AND Triunfel. Triunfel is not untouchable, but he will not be traded WITH Jones. The Orioles are definitely doing the smart thing by picking Jones over him. I would love to have both, but I guess it isn't in the cards.

[Fairfax Bird]

Again, James doesn't do the pitching projections, but I'd be willing to bet that Hill has a better era next season.

That is a bet I would make. PM me.

I thought it was James, someone is projecting it, cause it has been cited here.

[health55]

I thought it was James, someone is projecting it, cause it has been cited here.

The projections are published in the 2008 Bill James Handbook. Bill James wrote the introduction to the chapter on Projected Pitching Records, but noted that John Dewan and Pat Quinn compile the projections. James wrote that a few years back he declined to join Dewan on the pitcher projections because he had his doubts. But this year James wrote:

So John and Pat Quinn went to work trying to project pitchers, and we've been publishing those projections for several years. And ... guess what? The system actually works pretty well. The projections for pitchers are about as accurate, on average, as the projections for hitters.

[Roll Tide]

Again, James doesn't do the pitching projections, but I'd be willing to bet that Hill has a better era next season.

Give me some of that action Skiba ... I'll take Eb or Hill in 2008

[skiba7]

Give me some of that action Skiba ... I'll take Eb or Hill in 2008

Well, maybe I'm being a big hasty. I do think their era numbers will be very similar, but I'm not confident enough in Hill beating him out to actually bet on it. I do think the James Handbook projections of Bedard are pretty accurate. Maybe just a tad on the pessimistic side. I'm guessing he puts up an era of around 3.5-3.7. I just don't see him duplicating this year's performance.

[Roll Tide]

Well, maybe I'm being a big hasty. I do think their era numbers will be very similar, but I'm not confident enough in Hill beating him out to actually bet on it. I do think the James Handbook projections of Bedard are pretty accurate. Maybe just a tad on the pessimistic side. I'm guessing he puts up an era of around 3.5-3.7. I just don't see him duplicating this year's performance.

Well I'm not sure I agree. Bedard will benefit from getting out of the AL East IMO. OPACY is certainly no pitcher friendly park. Run support, defense, & bull pen will all play a factor.

Bedard seemed to be in a pitchers duel every time he pitched last year, the bull pen was horrible especially in the 2nd half, & I'll bet with earlier & better run support he would be better as its easier to pitch with a 3 run lead than a tie game!

I doubt you can find those variables factored into your Book. Hill pitched in the NL central not the AL East ...Anyone who cant see the drastic difference either doesn't want to or is just plain ignorant!

[skiba7]

Well I'm not sure I agree. Bedard will benefit from getting out of the AL East IMO. OPACY is certainly no pitcher friendly park. Run support, defense, & bull pen will all play a factor.

Bedard seemed to be in a pitchers duel every time he pitched last year, the bull pen was horrible especially in the 2nd half, & I'll bet with earlier & better run support he would be better as its easier to pitch with a 3 run lead than a tie game!

I doubt you can find those variables factored into your Book. Hill pitched in the NL central not the AL East ...Anyone who cant see the drastic difference either doesn't want to or is just plain ignorant!

Well, the handbook projections are assuming he plays with the Orioles. If he goes to the Mariners, it certainly helps, but I'm not sure by how much. What do run support and the bullpen have to do with era? I'm not talking about wins, I'm talking about era. Hill had worse run support anyways.

"Hill pitched in the NL central not the AL East ...Anyone who cant see the drastic difference either doesn't want to or is just plain ignorant!"

Ignorant? The fact that one plays in the NLC and the other in the ALE is the reason I thought Hill had a better chance to put up a better era. I never said Hill was better than Bedard. Never. I said that I thought he had a good chance to put up better numbers next season. I don't see why there's a need to call me names, I was just giving my opinion. My opinion is not that Bedard isn't good (he obviously is), just that I don't think he will ever perform like he did this season again, and that it's a good idea to trade him now.

[Lamda]

LOL...doesn't scare me pal - I fully expect LAA to take our division even IF we trade for Bedard. I see him as a necessary building block for the future - not a guy that puts us over the top next year to beat LAA. We need a few bats to put us close with them. If we traded for Bedard/Roberts and then also got Jason Bay off Pitt then I think we'd have a chance.