Send Ubaldo To The BP

[sfosfan]

Aren't you supposed to throw strikes in BP?

You're absolutely correct! Looks like we found another role Ubaldo wouldn't be good at.

[larrytt]

Jiminez and Tillman have been so hot/cold this season, either pitching great or horrible every time, that I decided to look at it in a new way. I went through each of their starts and worked out their ERA for each game. This is what I found. They truly have no in between - they are either nearly unhittable or get hit like t-ball. In 27 total starts, neither one has had a single game where they had an ERA between 1.80 and 4.50. You can also see that after his horrible start in April and excluding his last start, Jiminez has pitched pretty well. After his great start in April, Tillman has not pitched that well, though he keeps mixing in nice games along with the bad ones. However, surprisingly, we wouldn't be much better off if Jiminez were pitching better. In his 13 starts, we've scored 4 or more runs only 3 times, and predictably, we've won only 3 of them, going 3-10. In Tillman's 14 starts, we've scored 4 or more 9 times, and predictably we've won 9 of them, going 9-5. Our records when they start is identical to what it would be if we won every game where we scored 4 or more runs, and lost the rest.

Jiminez (13 starts)

ERA 0.00-2.00: 5 times

ERA 2.00-5.99: 1 time (5.06)

ERA 6:00 or more: 7 times

Tillman (14 starts)

ERA 0.00-2.00: 6 times

ERA 2.00-5.39: 1 time (4.50)

ERA 5.40 or higher: 7 times

Here are the game-by-game ERAs:

Jiminez

6.00

7.71

8.43

5.06

6.00

0.00

1.69

0.00

9.00

11.25

1.50

1.59

25.71

Tillman

1.80

1.08

0.00

5.40

11.12

5.79

4.50

5.40

0.00

72.00

9.53

1.35

45.00

1.50

[MrOrange82]

Ubaldo just threw 6 IP with 2 ER allowed. I guess Norris is next up for the bullpen chopping block

(no, I don't like the walks, either, but results are results)

[OFFNY]

I have no problem with the Orioles sending Jimenez to the bullpen before tonight's start.

Then, bring him out to the pitcher's mound for a few more warm-up tosses before facing the Jays.

Exactly. And if that doesn't work, let him pitch batting practice. Oh wait, he's doing that already ... never mind.

Horrible day at the plate for the Blue Jays tonight, considering that they were up against a batting practice pitcher for the first 6 innings.

[Il BuonO]

Aren't you supposed to throw strikes in BP?

This assumes he isn't reworking his delivery if he goes to the pen. In the OP I referenced Roch's blog in which he cites a scout from outside the organization. The idea is that in the BP it's easier to tinker with mechanics than working as a starter.

Ubaldo just threw 6 IP with 2 ER allowed. I guess Norris is next up for the bullpen chopping block

(no, I don't like the walks, either, but results are results)

The problem is one of those walks scored and he was extremely fortunate to have the defense bail him out with two DPs early on.

There's no doubt when on his stuff is special, but he needs to be consistent.

[bpilktree]

His ERA and whip in May and June is 3.92 and 1.31 those are not bad numbers at all. They need to start getting him some runs though.

[Barnaby Graves]

(no, I don't like the walks, either, but results are results)

I don't think anyone can seriously say this. Really? 5 BB and 2 K isn't "it is what it is," it's "he's playing like garbage and getting away with it."

[scOtt]

I don't think anyone can seriously say this. Really? 5 BB and 2 K isn't "it is what it is," it's "he's playing like garbage and getting away with it."

Results. Not stats. You're wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think anyone can seriously say this. Really? 5 BB and 2 K isn't "it is what it is," it's "he's playing like garbage and getting away with it."

Exactly, you can not expect him to sustain unsustainable results.

It is looking like 2012 all over.

[Barnaby Graves]

Results. Not stats. You're wrong.

Stats are results. You take what happens on the field and you make a number from it. He sucked today and the difference between sucking and getting away with it and sucking and people noticing is a few seeing-eye singles. You don't walk 5 in 6 innings with 2 Ks without people complaining unless the balls in play found some fielders' gloves. It's hardly different from his other starts, he is terrible.

[Barnaby Graves]

Exactly, you can not expect him to sustain unsustainable results.

It is looking like 2012 all over.

I believe in xFIP and xBABIP. Maybe not a lot but more than I believe in ERA.

[scOtt]

Stats are results. You take what happens on the field and you make a number from it. He sucked today and the difference between sucking and getting away with it and sucking and people noticing is a few seeing-eye singles. You don't walk 5 in 6 innings with 2 Ks without people complaining unless the balls in play found some fielders' gloves. It's hardly different from his other starts, he is terrible.

I don't even AGREE to disagree. Just disagree. You're wrong.

[scOtt]

I'm outta here. Haters makin' me mad!

[MrOrange82]

Stats are results. You take what happens on the field and you make a number from it. He sucked today and the difference between sucking and getting away with it and sucking and people noticing is a few seeing-eye singles. You don't walk 5 in 6 innings with 2 Ks without people complaining unless the balls in play found some fielders' gloves. It's hardly different from his other starts, he is terrible.

You're being overly dramatic (yes, you really, really are). He induced enough of the right kind of contact to erase the potential damage caused by the walks. If he was "terrible" today, that would not have been the case.

Now, if you said he was "kind of bad," I wouldn't take issue with that. Because he was fortunate to escape with minimal damage. Last year, he only started eight games in which he walked four or more batters. This year he's already started six games in which he's walked four or more.

He needs to get better. That's indisputable. The problem is...so does Tillman (4.91 ERA and 1.52 WHIP vs. 4.86 ERA and 1.51 WHIP for Jimenez), and Gonzo isn't back yet. Though I was skeptical of socal's thread yesterday, the more I think about it, maybe Ubaldo should be the starter getting skipped when Gonzo returns. Maybe. But either way, he's not exactly the team's biggest problem right now.

EDIT: and you might want to look at Tillman's and Ubaldo's FIP/xFIP's, also.

[Barnaby Graves]

I don't even AGREE to disagree. Just disagree. You're wrong.

I'm not wrong. He's bad, he's been bad, I hope he will not continue to be bad.

There's nothing different between stats and results. If you go to ball four on five different batters, that's 5 BB. If you go to ball four on five different batters, that's five people who took free bases without trying as hard. If I say "5 BB" or I say "well jeez he worked really hard and he battled and gritty and gutsy and his hair was really nice today but also he went to ball four on five different batters," it's the same thing. 5 BB. 5 guys who did took a free base.

2 strikeouts. Two guys who he got out more or less by himself. So all of the outs under his purview minus 2 outs is 16 outs his defense had to work for. He's not the hero. You replace Manny Machado and JJ Hardy with Derek Jeter and Wilson Betemit and nobody thinks Ubaldo Jiminez was a good pitcher today. But either way, Manny Machado and JJ Hardy don't get that credit.

So don't be stupid, we all know what this is. He has not pitched well.