Send Ubaldo To The BP

[El Gordo]

I don't understand why people can't get what Ubaldo is. He's a a guy who when his command is good he's un hittable, when his command is poor he is still basically unhittable but he gives up a lot of walks. Tonight he gave up a lot of walks but he only have up 2R in 6. I'll take it. He gave us a chance to win and we didn't take it.

[mdbdotcom]

Maybe he has a hard time relaxing on the mound and tries too hard to locate his pitches. Some guys need to throw darts. That's not him. He looks like a guy who has so much movement on the ball that he just needs to throw for the lower part of the plate, right in the middle. The pitch will end up somewhere else, all on its own. Just trust his stuff.

He seemed like a different pitcher after Wallace's trip to the mound; relaxed and threw the ball. He still walked a couple of guys and needed some double plays, but that's his game and we have the infield defense for him. If the Ubaldo Jimenez who pitched after that visit to the mound showed up every 5 days, I don't think we'd have anything to complain about.

[DrungoHazewood]

So even when we pretend an entire month did not happen he has allowed over 5 walks per 9. Who ever got away with that on a consistent basis. Even Nolan Ryan had less than 5 walks per 9.

Nolan Ryan had 12 seasons or partial seasons with 5+ BB/9. In '71 he averaged 6.9 BB/9, and in two separate years he walked over 200 batters.

[Can_of_corn]

If you're going to get weird on me then Can of Corn is my only hope.

Somebody please tell me they agree with me. Ubaldo Jiminez walked a bunch of guys and didn't strike out enough guys. And that's why I don't think he's good. Can anyone on this website agree with that premise or should I just pack my things for Siberia.

Sorry dude, I went to bed.

If you are going to go into analytics and talk about peripherals and regression then some folks are just not going to want to hear it.

Trust me I didn't get my birds by being the board pessimist. Folks don't want to hear that Johnson really isn't that good a RP, that it isn't a good idea to extend Cruz based off a couple of hot months or that Flaherty isn't more then a utility guy.

I also think that this board specifically overvalues ground ball pitchers. As long as you have a good GB rate they shrug off walks and a lack of strikeouts with the assumption that a double play can solve any in game situation. Then when the balls find holes or a defender misses a play they blame bad luck.

[DrungoHazewood]

I also think that this board specifically overvalues ground ball pitchers. As long as you have a good GB rate they shrug off walks and a lack of strikeouts with the assumption that a double play can solve any in game situation. Then when the balls find holes or a defender misses a play they blame bad luck.

I think the world overvalues ground ball pitchers. There's this idea that unless you play in a canyon of a ballpark you can't succeed without being a groundball machine. I'd guess that most of the best pitchers of all time by any measure weren't overly groundball dependent. A heck of a lot of them were guys who struck everybody out ("everybody" being relative to their era) and often allowed their fair share of flyballs and homers by working up in the zone.

Brad Bergesen had nearly twice the GIDP rate of Nolan Ryan and more than twice that of Sandy Koufax. Don't read too much into that, but still...

[Can_of_corn]

I think the world overvalues ground ball pitchers. There's this idea that unless you play in a canyon of a ballpark you can't succeed without being a groundball machine. I'd guess that most of the best pitchers of all time by any measure weren't overly groundball dependent. A heck of a lot of them were guys who struck everybody out ("everybody" being relative to their era) and often allowed their fair share of flyballs and homers by working up in the zone.

Could be. I don't get into involved conversations or hang out in game threads for other boards so I confined my comments to this board.

[Why_Knott?]

If anyone, Gonzalez.

Why? He has been our best starter this year.

[weams]

Why? He has been our best starter this year.

I believe differently.

[weams]

I believe differently.

And I'm a Gonzo fan.

[MrOrange82]

There are just many people (even very smart ones) who have problems accepting and/or considering your bolded premise above. A lot of people just cannot or will not relate these to more commonly accepted "performance" stats. I have lost count of how many times I've heard that "FIP is not a performance stat, it's a predictive stat".

I love Orange and Scott, but they are two of the more adament ones. Orange will consider them and is quite analytical, but in the end, will likely dismiss or mitigate them. Scott will likely just reject them out of hand. They are by no means alone, and the spectrum varies.

For posting as long a you have, and being as smart as I know you are, I'm a bit surprised you don't get this and are seemingly so indignant about it. As you said, maybe you've been running up rep for too long with the comedic remarks that you've lost touch a little bit with how the board generally views analytics in the trenches. Opinions vary widely and are as just resolute as yours on the other spectrum.

While i generally agree with you about Ubaldo to this point, maybe the rhetoric has been a little too strong in your representation for some posters to relate to. I'm ok with it personally, i do get your point quite clearly and it's a good one. But keep in mind that DIPS theory is quite a stretch for some people to grasp and far from precise.

I guess I should have said "ultimate results, which encompass preliminary results like walks." My opinion(s) on Ubaldo is partially informed by the fact that he really hasn't pitched much differently than I expected going into this season. I expected him to walk 3-4 batters per nine, I expected him to pitch about 5-6 innings per game, I expected him to not get hit particularly hard while striking out a good number of hitters, etc.

That being said, his walks are clearly higher than I'm comfortable with. At this rate, he'll set a career high for BB/9, and not by a narrow margin. That really needs to change, or I'll become much more suspicious of Ubaldo's odds of producing good "ultimate results" going forward. Of course, it's worth noting that his performance to date is actually in line with his FIP (4.73) and xFIP (4.31).

In short, I have more faith in the idea that Ubaldo's walks will come down over the course of the season than I do in the idea that he'll continue to put men on base at his current, absurdly high (even for him) clip, thereby setting himself up for a series of Chernobyl-type meltdowns in the near future. So yeah...because (1) Ubaldo's performances really haven't strayed far from my original expectations, and (2) Ubaldo's pitched much better since the first month of the season (again, right in line with his historical trends), I'm not going to get on board with screaming to high-Heaven that Ubaldo's been terrible...

...if for no other reason than using "terrible" so liberally leaves only a frightening, bombastic group of adjectives to describe starts in which Ubaldo really does pitch terribly...

[El Gordo]

I believe differently.

And well you might. Our best SP has been Chen, followed by Norris,(too soon to include Gausman) followed by Gonzo. Our worst has been Tillman. Go figure.

[El Gordo]

I guess I should have said "ultimate results, which encompass preliminary results like walks." My opinion(s) on Ubaldo is partially informed by the fact that he really hasn't pitched much differently than I expected going into this season. I expected him to walk 3-4 batters per nine, I expected him to pitch about 5-6 innings per game, I expected him to not get hit particularly hard while striking out a good number of hitters, etc.

That being said, his walks are clearly higher than I'm comfortable with. At this rate, he'll set a career high for BB/9, and not by a narrow margin. That really needs to change, or I'll become much more suspicious of Ubaldo's odds of producing good "ultimate results" going forward. Of course, it's worth noting that his performance to date is actually in line with his FIP (4.73) and xFIP (4.31).

In short, I have more faith in the idea that Ubaldo's walks will come down over the course of the season than I do in the idea that he'll continue to put men on base at his current, absurdly high (even for him) clip, thereby setting himself up for a series of Chernobyl-type meltdowns in the near future. So yeah...because (1) Ubaldo's performances really haven't strayed far from my original expectations, and (2) Ubaldo's pitched much better since the first month of the season (again, right in line with his historical trends), I'm not going to get on board with screaming to high-Heaven that Ubaldo's been terrible...

...if for no other reason than using "terrible" so liberally leaves only a frightening, bombastic group of adjectives to describe starts in which Ubaldo really does pitch terribly...

What is Ubaldo's walk rate for the last 9 starts. He usually has a terrible April, a better May, and a good June. Then he regresses in July/August, and comes back strong in Sept. So far he has followed that progression. He rarely does well when he walks more than 3-4.

[MrOrange82]

What is Ubaldo's walk rate for the last 9 starts. He usually has a terrible April, a better May, and a good June. Then he regresses in July/August, and comes back strong in Sept. So far he has followed that progression. He rarely does well when he walks more than 3-4.

He walked 14 batters in 34.2 innings in May, and he's walked 14 batters in 14 June innings. What's most troubling to me is that he's walked 5 batters in 3 of his last 5 starts. And I think I posted elsewhere that last season he only had 8 games in which he walked 4+ batters, but he's already got 6 of those this season. That really needs to stop.

[Il BuonO]

He walked 14 batters in 34.2 innings in May, and he's walked 14 batters in 14 June innings. What's most troubling to me is that he's walked 5 batters in 3 of his last 5 starts. And I think I posted elsewhere that last season he only had 8 games in which he walked 4+ batters, but he's already got 6 of those this season. That really needs to stop.

This has been a problem for Tillman this season as well, but today not a one.

Unfortunately not a SO either. I could see him in the pen as well, although I really didn't think he pitched that bad today.

[MrOrange82]

This has been a problem for Tillman this season as well, but today not a one.

Unfortunately not a SO either. I could see him in the pen as well, although I really didn't think he pitched that bad today.

Just looking at his line, there's not much to complain about. 7 innings, 3 ER, just 92 pitches thrown. And, as you mentioned, no walks. The only thing that bothers me is that it didn't look like Tillman had command of his fastball (again) and it was pretty slow (again). Both Tillman and Jimenez are operating with a razor-thin margin for error right now. But at least Tillman seemed to have a pretty good grip on his offspeed pitches today.