The "Poor Hypothesis Theory of Baseball" and rebuilding the O's

[DrungoHazewood]

RShack,

The total number of players over 30 on a squad has nothing to do with the question of keeping or moving Roberts. 2b decline around 32 -- small players playing a physically demanding position and wearing down -- that is the only age/stat comparison that needs to be made. When I took a look and posted the stats on another board, I seem to recall Lou Whitaker as the exception in that he continued to perform offensively well into his late 30's (and early 40's?). Almost every other all-star 2b fell off dramatically around 32. Roberts will be hitting that "fall-off" right as this contract expires.

Would it make sense to have established 30+ sluggers at 1b/3b/lf/dh? Sure. Does it make sense to give B-Rob another sizeable 3-year deal for bottom of the order offense and diminishing defense? Not so much.

The players over 30 I'd like to have in 2010 include the likes of Teix and Dunn --big bats playing not-so-strenuous positions. I'm a huge Roberts fan, but realistic enough to see that history shows his next contract will likely be a bad one, and BAL should move him now (meaning sometime this year). It would be the best for all parties involved.

That's actually more true than I thought it would be. There has only been one second baseman in history who was at least 20% better than league in OPS from age 33-on in 1000+ PAs. That's Rogers Hornsby.

There have only been 31 second basemen in all of baseball history who've been above-average hitters from age 33-on:

OPS                             RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AVG      OBA      SLG      EBH      SB     1    Rogers Hornsby              132    1.037     .786     .353     .436     .601      168        4   2    Nap Lajoie                  116     .763     .657     .313     .364     .400      276      128   3    Billy Herman                116     .811     .700     .317     .394     .417       76        5   4    Lou Whitaker                115     .843     .736     .277     .379     .464      243       27   5    Jeff Kent                   115     .886     .773     .297     .366     .520      398       32   6    Charlie Gehringer           114     .902     .789     .318     .422     .480      323       44   7    Eddie Collins               114     .881     .772     .347     .437     .444      277      180   8    Hardy Richardson            110     .748     .681     .279     .338     .410       93       74   9    Bobby Grich                 109     .798     .730     .263     .371     .428      179       11   10   Ray Durham                  108     .841     .776     .291     .358     .483      108       13   11   Joe Morgan                  108     .779     .723     .254     .378     .402      284      184   12   Eddie Stanky                107     .806     .754     .270     .427     .379       75       17   13   Joe Gordon                  106     .808     .762     .258     .357     .450      130       14   14   Miller Huggins              105     .728     .691     .274     .408     .321       62      103   15   Frank LaPorte               105     .728     .692     .281     .337     .391       83       29   16   Tom Daly                    105     .748     .712     .285     .361     .388      174      131   17   Sam Wise                    105     .767     .730     .284     .370     .397       69       53   18   Max Bishop                  104     .795     .767     .273     .435     .360       52        4   19   Tony Phillips               104     .778     .751     .263     .377     .401      124       32   20   Bret Boone                  103     .789     .763     .267     .334     .456      215       42   21   Buddy Myer                  103     .816     .790     .304     .414     .402       99       23   22   Tony Taylor                 103     .735     .715     .277     .334     .401       98       30   23   Jay Bell                    102     .808     .790     .264     .356     .452      169       14   24   Bid McPhee                  102     .776     .759     .287     .388     .388      211      184   25   Del Pratt                   102     .790     .774     .310     .366     .424      165       26   26   Roberto Alomar              102     .779     .765     .285     .357     .421      152       58   27   Davey Lopes                 102     .734     .723     .259     .337     .397      202      182   28   Claude Ritchey              102     .644     .634     .255     .335     .309       39       16   29   Randy Velarde               101     .795     .784     .289     .370     .425      182       54   30   Craig Biggio                101     .789     .780     .271     .353     .436      331       77   31   Jim Gilliam                 100     .720     .723     .276     .363     .358       66       36

There have only been 39 player-seasons in history where a second baseman who's at least 33 had an OPS+ of 110 (while qualifying for the batting title). And only 92 cases of a qualifying 2B over 32 being an average MLB hitter.

This probably isn't too surprising in retrospect. Second basemen tend to be among the weaker hitters on a team, and by 33 most players are well into their decline phases.

Roberts' peak OPS+ was 139. His next two best years were 112 and 96. Let's estimate his "true" multi-year peak at about 105. Maybe 110 if we're being generous. If he ages like a typical second baseman or a typical player he's probably going to be a 90-something OPS hitter with diminished speed by 2011. For him to be a 10% above-average hitter in 2011 he'd have to have one of the 40 best seasons ever by a 33-year-old second baseman. Possible? Sure. Likely? Probably not.

And remember, signing him to a long-term deal probably means his age 32 through 35 or 36 seasons. There have only been 14 seasons in history where a 35+ second baseman had an OPS+ of better than 110 in regular playing time - 12 by HOFers or likely HOFers, one by Tom Daley, one by Toby Harrah.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, it really is quite pathetic and also shows a great deal of hypocrisy. He's self-important and arrogant enough to throw out wild theories of many posters being obsessed with him, yet he can't realize his burning fascination with Rshack.

I never addressed rshack or any of his points...I was addressing the rest of the board wondering why they would get into this ridiculously poor debate again.

[TommyD4207]

I never addressed rshack or any of his points...I was addressing the rest of the board wondering why they would get into this ridiculously poor debate again.

For about the 600th time. This isn't middle school, not everyone's gonna join up on your crusade to pile up on him and leave him out in the cold. How many people honestly have him on ignore besides you? How many on here talk about him as much as you do? Can we get a statistical analysis done on this?

[Sports Guy]

For about the 600th time. This isn't middle school, not everyone's gonna join up on your crusade to pile up on him and leave him out in the cold. How many people honestly have him on ignore besides you? How many on here talk about him as much as you do? Can we get a statistical analysis done on this?

From what I have seen and the comments people have made, i know of around 5 or so others who have him on ignore and I have seen many other very respected members get tired of his stuff.

It would be one thing if he actually listened to what people were saying and didn't put words into people's mouths and things like that.

[TommyD4207]

From what I have seen and the comments people have made, i know of around 5 or so others who have him on ignore and I have seen many other very respected members get tired of his stuff.

It would be one thing if he actually listened to what people were saying and didn't put words into people's mouths and things like that.

More than 5 people have talked to me, telling me to ignore you and how they don't like you. What's that say about you?

Personally, I think rshack does a very good job of communicating on these boards. I know many people feel that way. I know of a couple people that don't.

The whole point I'm trying to make is that sniping anyone without talking to him on more than one occasion is immature and lame. If you're saying you're putting someone on ignore, end your communication with them, this whole "I'm gonna bash you and then la la la la I can't hear your response" is pretty childish.

[mefogus]

Comes on guys, this is stupid. Truth be told, what Sports Guy, or RShack, or I post on OH matters not one whit in the real world. This is the Internet: where everyone is entitled to their opinion, regardless of how far-out they are. No one cares who has whom on their ignore list; I know that I don't.

Here is a fact that has helped me to learn to not care how "wrong" someone else might be on any given Internet forum:

People are interested in being right, not in finding truth.

Once you realize this your blood pressure will start to come down.

-m

[Sports Guy]

More than 5 people have talked to me, telling me to ignore you and how they don't like you. What's that say about you?

I say great!...Probably people i don't want to talk to anyway. I wish some more would put me on ignore to be honest.

The whole point I'm trying to make is that sniping anyone without talking to him on more than one occasion is immature and lame

And I am supposed to care about your opinion on this because???? You call me names, make long drawn out posts that usually don't say much, have very few posts and I am supposed to respect and care about what you have to say? Um, no, i'm good but thanks.

If you're saying you're putting someone on ignore, end your communication with them, this whole "I'm gonna bash you and then la la la la I can't hear your response" is pretty childish.

Actually, I do read some of his bs every once in a while(you can still read it if they are on ignore if you choose to). And, i say it because, well, i want to and really, if you don't like it, you can put me on ignore yourself.

[TommyD4207]

Comes on guys, this is stupid. Truth be told, what Sports Guy, or RShack, or I post on OH matters not one whit in the real world. This is the Internet: where everyone is entitled to their opinion, regardless of how far-out they are. No one cares who has whom on their ignore list; I know that I don't.

Here is a fact that has helped me to learn to not care how "wrong" someone else might be on any given Internet forum:

People are interested in being right, not in finding truth.

Once you realize this your blood pressure will start to come down.

-m

I could not agree with this anymore.

[Sports Guy]

Comes on guys, this is stupid. Truth be told, what Sports Guy, or RShack, or I post on OH matters not one whit in the real world. This is the Internet: where everyone is entitled to their opinion, regardless of how far-out they are. No one cares who has whom on their ignore list; I know that I don't.

Here is a fact that has helped me to learn to not care how "wrong" someone else might be on any given Internet forum:

People are interested in being right, not in finding truth.

Once you realize this your blood pressure will start to come down.

-m

Which is why i have Rshack on ignore in the first place.

[mefogus]

Can someone tell me where the Ignore-everyone-but-Drungo-and-Tony button is?

-m

[PaulFolk]

Why did this thread become a debate of rshack's worth a poster? I don't understand why someone who has rshack's posts blocked would feel the need to drop in and deliver a few more shots at the guy. If he's on your ignore list, then stop obsessing about him. If he's not, and you want to discuss the issue at hand, then feel free to do so. Either way, let's stick to discussing baseball.

[TonySoprano]

Why did this thread become a debate of rshack's worth a poster? I don't understand why someone who has rshack's posts blocked would feel the need to drop in and deliver a few more shots at the guy. If he's on your ignore list, then stop obsessing about him. If he's not, and you want to discuss the issue at hand, then feel free to do so. Either way, let's stick to discussing baseball.

It makes for theater.

No one cares who has whom on their ignore list; I know that I don't.

Which is why i have Rshack on ignore in the first place.

[Flip217]

Bleh. :002_smad:

Somebody lock this thread down, please.

[TommyD4207]

I say great!...Probably people i don't want to talk to anyway. I wish some more would put me on ignore to be honest.

What good would them putting you on ignore do if they acted like you do and still intruded on your threads and whined, cried, and wet the bed about you without talking about the actual context of the thread?

And I am supposed to care about your opinion on this because???? You call me names, make long drawn out posts that usually don't say much, have very few posts and I am supposed to respect and care about what you have to say? Um, no, i'm good but thanks.

I have never called you names before. You have called my arguments stupid, I don't stoop to your level. I learned to be more mature than that in kindergarten.

There is only one person that has said that my posts are all fluff, that is you. That is more name-calling, in a true sense of the word. Many people have lauded me for my posts.

And my post count is supposed to mean what exactly? I have many things going on in my life that I won't divulge in that keep me from posting anywhere near as much as you post.

And I never said you have to care about what I say. I don't care about what you say, I shouldn't expect that for me, I suppose.

Actually, I do read some of his bs every once in a while(you can still read it if they are on ignore if you choose to). And, i say it because, well, i want to and really, if you don't like it, you can put me on ignore yourself.

Sadly enough, you're a smart guy. I often enjoy reading what you say, your argument with davearm, I find myself agreeing with you 100%. I just think you'd be better off concentrating your energy and focus and intelligence to somewhere, anywhere else than stalking rshack.

[Sports Guy]

Why did this thread become a debate of rshack's worth a poster? I don't understand why someone who has rshack's posts blocked would feel the need to drop in and deliver a few more shots at the guy. If he's on your ignore list, then stop obsessing about him. If he's not, and you want to discuss the issue at hand, then feel free to do so. Either way, let's stick to discussing baseball.

All I did was comment on why everyone else is getting into this debate yet again with him....I think that is a fair question to the rest of the board, especially since the thread was already getting derailed from what i saw.