This is A Mess (Mega RANT Thread)

[Bahama O's Fan]

Even if Norris had a risk of regression, I liked the plan of going with six starter candidates for five spots. Norris turned out to be the one who regressed, but it could have been any of them, and there certainly was no guarantee that Jimenez was going to bounce back.

As you say, the biggest problem here is that we have two starters who not only regressed, but have been far worse than we had any reason to expect. Norris and Tillman have been far worse than Ubaldo was last year.

As to the offense, the big picture is that we are still 5th in runs/game. Sure, it has been less consistent than we would like, but that is part of baseball.

As to your point about the change not coming from our MiL system next year, I don't fully agree. Norfolk has a staff full of guys who are performing well, and if a couple pan out at the major league level, that's all we need there. It certainly seems we will need to acquire a bat or two to replace the guys we are losing, but we should have the money to do it.

Not only did Norris and Tillman regress, but Gausman was injured. I think if everyone just performed to their career averages, we would have a playoff team.

[eddie83]

1. You aren't limited to trading for prospects.

2. Even if you trade for prospects you can trade for prospects that are major league ready.

3. If there are moves Baltimore cannot/should not make because they are budgetary constrained, that would otherwise be making the team better, then Baltimore should be similarly aware that they need to squeeze out excess value on players. Drungo is a super smart dude, but his claim above is a strawman -- you don't have to think Davis is a failure to want to trade him. You only have to believe that the value you are getting back is going to exceed his production, and there was plenty of reason to believe that to be the case (NOT a guarantee that would be the case, but reasons nonetheless and folks that pointed to those reasons at the time).

Finally, and I think this is most important, to my eye we are going on two straight seasons of doing little to improve the organization outside of the 25 man roster (and some season-specific depth on the 40 man). Part of the reason you move a guy like Davis is to supplement your acquisition efforts. Baltimore doesn't like to roll the dice with more expensive international signings. Baltimore has recently sacrificed picks in the draft to sign free agents. Baltimore has recently traded from the moderate depth in the system to get season-specific pieces to help the 25 man. All of that is eating through the minor league system and limiting and *appears* to be setting the Orioles up for a situation where they do not possess the in-house depth to keep the 25 man cheap and cost controlled for the future.

True, the Orioles have money to spend this off-season. But keep in mind free agency is the most expensive route to team building, and the players tend to have their production weighted to the front of the contract span. So even if Baltimore picks up three solid players and those players perform, 1) it could result in additional loss of picks for next year's draft, 2) the Orioles will be paying free agent prices for the production (which tends to be least efficient), and 3) the organization runs the risk of holding onto less productive players for these new free agent prices for the next 3-4 years.

It's really important, in my opinion, for the organization to break the plate spinning cycle or, at a minimum, start putting serious efforts into building back up the organizational talent. Otherwise, while it may not be a ten losing season disaster again, you could very well get yourself stuck in a perpetual 76 to 85 win span.

I am not a fan that believes it's catastrophe or championship, but I'm also not interested in watching the Blue Jays circa 1994-2014. Under this management I am troubled very little in-season, but am still searching for signs that there is an actual plan to eventually be a great organization. Right now I feel like the crosshairs are set on "don't be a disaster", which is okay...but realistic playoff odds then come down to Duquette being able to constantly piece together competitive clubs with AAAA wizardry. Maybe he is indeed so good that he can do this in perpetuity -- no one questions the intellect. I just wish I saw evidence that intellect was also putting together a plan for keeping the talent pipeline flowing through the Baltimore dev system.

A team trading for Davis and Wieters knows they are Boras clients and they would have them for only two seasons. The only type of teams that would want players like that are built to win now type of teams. What else other than unproven prospects would teams have offered? If they have ready to play talents teams aren't dealing them for 2 years of Davis and Wieters.

[33rdst]

A

As for Chris Davis, who knows. I proposed a Davis for Brandon Belt and Kyle Crick (pitching prospect) trade after his big season. Belt was coming off an .841 OPS season. Looked like an up and comer. He's been injury prone and just not that great since. Crick was rated the #32 overall prospect in baseball after the 2013 season. Right now he's in AA with 48 walks in 45 IP.

Who knows what we would have traded him for?

The Padres were reported to have significant interest in Davis during the off season and had the prospects the O's could have used. However,after allowing Cruz and Markakis and Miller to walk I don't think DD/Showalter were prepared to subtract another player from their 96 win team.

[Frobby]

Yeah, could I see Davies, Wright, or Wilson being the 5th starter and someone like Drake and Givens being in the bullpen. Absolutely. We just don't have a Steve Matz, Noah Syndergaard, or Joc Pederson coming up. Role players, bullpen pieces, and back of the rotation starters.

And hurt guys, lots of hurt guys.

That's certainly an optimistic viewpoint and the front office is going to be fully vindicated if the collection that they have in Norfolk/Bowie end up providing the production needed over the next couple of seasons.

The injuries to Bundy and Harvey have really set us back in our efforts to develop a top of rotation guy, to be sure. I also don't think any of our AAA guys is as good as Chen, so that is another issue. I don't mean to suggest our pitching staff is not at risk. I'm just saying there are a number of guys in AAA who potentially can contribute in the manner RZNJ identifies.

[Stotle]

The injuries to Bundy and Harvey have really set us back in our efforts to develop a top of rotation guy, to be sure. I also don't think any of our AAA guys is as good as Chen, so that is another issue. I don't mean to suggest our pitching staff is not at risk. I'm just saying there are a number of guys in AAA who potentially can contribute in the manner RZNJ identifies.

With respect, an injury to a AAA/AA arm and Low A arm can't be the lynchpin issue for a competitive organization's pitching staff.

[Stotle]

A team trading for Davis and Wieters knows they are Boras clients and they would have them for only two seasons. The only type of teams that would want players like that are built to win now type of teams. What else other than unproven prospects would teams have offered? If they have ready to play talents teams aren't dealing them for 2 years of Davis and Wieters.

I don't agree with the paradigm you've set up. All 30 teams have interest in two year solutions. I also think the buyer/seller paradigm around the deadline is outdated, though, so what do I know.

[eddie83]

Maybe my wording was too string yesterday but my main points are a lot of the issues we faced early in the year we still have now. Look at our schedule. We pounded teams like Toronto, Boston and Philly offensively in April and June. Right now we are playing Davis in the OF so a journeyman like Parmelee can play at 1B everyday. Snider has not been a consistent presence at all. We are still trying to juggle players around for roster flexibility. We had good offense in June when guys like Wieters, Parmelee and Reimold vs poor pitching staffs all gave us a boost. I know our runs per game average is fine but we have been too streaky. If we had a true number 1 pitcher it would be easier to overcome such inconsistency. The Tigers in recent seasons have had a top heavy roster. The Orioles are a team that relies on depth across the board. No question Tillman has been a huge reason we are where we are. I am not trying to pin all the blame on DD and I know we are right in the middle of the race but if we want to stay there DD is going to have to fix some of the issues that have been plaguing us all season.

[eddie83]

I don't agree with the paradigm you've set up. All 30 teams have interest in two year solutions. I also think the buyer/seller paradigm around the deadline is outdated, though, so what do I know.

Weren't they also two year solutions for the Orioles as well?

[eddie83]

[/b]

Easier said than done. Some problems fix themselves. Some don't. Not even baseball geniuses can predict those. Maybe Tillman gets on a role. Maybe Parmelee starts hitting again. Look at De Aza on the Red Sox. He looked awful for us. Now he's hot. IF we had kept him (I'm not aruging that we should have) he might be doing that for us. Players have hot months, cold months, bad year, good years. Trading for someone doesn't necesarily "fix" something.

I get that. If you are fine with the roster we have now and wishing for the best then so be it. I just expect more than a Chris Parmelee on a contending team and hoping that a guy who couldn't stick before turns it around.

[Stotle]

Weren't they also two year solutions for the Orioles as well?

By that logic no player would ever be traded.

[eddie83]

By that logic no player would ever be traded.

Contending teams trade players like Wieters and Davis how often? The Red Sox had a surplus of OF so they dealt Cespedes for Porcello. The Orioles weren't getting an ace for Wieters and Davis. If they would have dealt those two then the Cruz and Ubaldo signings more than likely never happen. You stink for 14 years and then want to go backwards to go forward again?

[eddie83]

It's not that I'm fine with the current roster. It's that I don't want to continue to trade young assets for quick fixes in a quest for the playoffs.

That is reasonable but our GM ran his mouth about how much he liked our young OF's, where are they? If Alvarez is so good then bring him up. I don't expect us to get a superstar but we need an upgrade in our lineup sooner than later.

[Stotle]

Contending teams trade players like Wieters and Davis how often? The Red Sox had a surplus of OF so they dealt Cespedes for Porcello. The Orioles weren't getting an ace for Wieters and Davis. If they would have dealt those two then the Cruz and Ubaldo signings more than likely never happen. You stink for 14 years and then want to go backwards to go forward again?

I think you are locked into a binary way of approaching decisions like this and today's game requires decision makers to be a little more fluid in their team building.

[Redskins Rick]

That is reasonable but our GM ran his mouth about how much he liked our young OF's, where are they? If Alvarez is so good then bring him up. I don't expect us to get a superstar but we need an upgrade in our lineup sooner than later.

DD isn't a GM that runs his mouth.

So he likes our guys in the system, that's not a bad thing.

[eddie83]

I think you are locked into a binary way of approaching decisions like this and today's game requires decision makers to be a little more fluid in their team building.

We lost for 14 seasons. In 2012 we made the playoffs and in 2013 were a game out of the postseason with around 11 games left. You honestly think a team is going to deal players like Davis and Wieters so they can improve their system for down the road?