Top position players 25 and under?

[davearm]

The reason he is such a highly regarded prospect is his athleticism. I'm not sure what your post has to do with anything. No one claims he was always a good second baseman, just that he is pretty good now, much better than Cano and most importantly, still getting better. Its not a tenuous situation. For example, from the brewers 07 preview:

Brewer fan link

Young players take time to develop.

LOL!

Curious, who's this Jamie Siegel guy that we also are apparently taking as gospel truth? What makes you think he's any more of an authority on this topic than me or you?

And FYI, Weeks is a highly regarded prospect because he can flat out hit. He's one of those guys that you swallow hard and find a spot on the field for, because his bat justifies it.

Now he may develop into a fine 2B one day. That's certainly a possibility. He's not one yet, though. He also might develop into Soriano v2.0. After seeing him play many times myself, I find the latter far more likely. He has nice range but his mechanics are really not good at all -- hands, footwork, throwing, it's all pretty ugly. Very Sorianoesque, actually.

[davearm]

Assuming this is true, doesn't this bolster the case for Weeks. If just a few years ago he was horrible, and has shown such great improvement already (in part a testament to his athleticism), doesn't that bode well for the future and suggest he may in fact not yet have peaked defensively?

He played the last half of 05 and 2/3rds of 06 in the majors, and few doubt he showed great improvement over that time period. One can see similarities in the way in which Nick M. grew over his first season in the big leagues.

Fun stats: Weeks is walking 11.7% of the time he comes to the plate this year. Although he is only hitting .241, he is slugging .542. 5 hrs, 3 3Bs and 4 2bs. And his Ks per plate appearance are down 10% from his 05-06 numbers, from 25% to 15%. If he keeps making contact his average won't stay down for long with his speed and power.

link

Weeks was horrible for much of last season.

The move to the OF (CF, specifically) was under consideration this past offseason. They ultimately chose to move Bill Hall there instead, but that decision had more to do with JJ Hardy than any optimism about Weeks' prospects for improving at 2B.

[mweb]

BTW, I'm lost. You listed the top players under 25, and when I said Weeks was better than Cano you challeneged me, but then you wrote:

We seem to agree this is not an MVP like discussion. What's done is done. Cano has been better so far. That said, I think Weeks is better now and going forward. Past stats may be relevant to the extent they allow us to extrapolate into the future, but are otherwise irrelevant.

How do we disagree, other than our respective certainties that Weeks is better now?

How are you lost? This is about who's better now, not who's going to be better. You just said Cano has been better so far, that's what I'm saying, so since he's been better so far, he ranks ahead of Weeks until Richie shows he's better which is probably happening now, but needs to be done over a longer period of time as I said.

[mweb]

This was the whole point of Sean Smith's article comparing the old and new versions of zone ratings. Every ball you field and turn into an out has value. Weeks fields more balls per inning.

What am I supposed to show? I expressed my opinion that Weeks is a better young player because he is a better defender, hits for more power and takes more walks. You responded with the ZR stuff. I showed you how ZR favors Weeks.

We are trying to evaluate young players, of course its speculative. I'm not arguing Weeks was better last year (which is what a reliance on last year's numbers will show you). These guys are young players. I'm arguing he is better now, and better going forward. Of course Cano has an edge, he didn't miss over two months of last season with a wrist injury. From the underlined part it sound like we agree.

07 stats are certainly to early to rely on for much but what has held true is Weeks is much better at drawing walks and hitting for more power. Cano's hitting a lot of singles and for average but isn't seeing many pitches or hitting for power.

That's why these posts are fun - there is no "right answer" that can be quantified in any way other than waiting. Sure, you could try a silly argument like Cano is better than MCab but the whole reason why these threads are good is that the answer is more subjective so there is more room for original thoughts and ideas and less room for dismissive numbers.

If you can't accept disagreement and the fact that we can't anoint a clear winner just yet, you've missed why this type of thread is the best. Prospects and young players = no clear answer just yet.

No, you've missed the point of my thread. It's about how good they're currently, which there pretty much are right and wrong answers on. I find it funny though that you now say there are no clear answers after you called my comment on the #1 spot absurd and told me to stop being silly earlier. I've thrown in some future comments as well and expected others to do the same, but the rankings are about now.

And I guess I'm blind, but I still don't see how THT's ZR favors Weeks in 2006. Weeks had a .765 ZR, Cano had an .807 ZR, even if you add Weeks OOZ plays to the equation, he still made a lower % of outs out of total chances. I'm also not sure why you keep saying I'm using the old ZR, your link brings me to the same page that I've been using all along.

[mikeygale]

I love the idea behind this thread. I'd probably put Mauer at #1 given position scarcity, with Cabrera, Wright, and Sizemore right behind him...the usual suspects. I think Tim Lincecum will be one of the best pitchers in the National League once he's called up. All the worries about his health seem unwarranted given his proven resilience throughout college, and his top comparables (according to Baseball Prospectus) are pretty ridiculous: Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Dennis Eckersley, Sandy Koufax....

Anyway, I thought it would also be interesting to note that BP listed the top 50 players aged 25 and under by their "Upside" score yesterday. Interestingly, Mauer is #1, McCann #4, and Russell Martin #17. That's precisely where I'd rank Mauer, but I doubt many people put McCann that high on the list, and I would never have thought to put Martin that high. I suppose it shows how much emphasis BP puts on position scarcity.

[davearm]

I love the idea behind this thread. I'd probably put Mauer at #1 given position scarcity, with Cabrera, Wright, and Sizemore right behind him...the usual suspects. I think Tim Lincecum will be one of the best pitchers in the National League once he's called up. All the worries about his health seem unwarranted given his proven resilience throughout college, and his top comparables (according to Baseball Prospectus) are pretty ridiculous: Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Dennis Eckersley, Sandy Koufax....

Anyway, I thought it would also be interesting to note that BP listed the top 50 players aged 25 and under by their "Upside" score yesterday. Interestingly, Mauer is #1, McCann #4, and Russell Martin #17. That's precisely where I'd rank Mauer, but I doubt many people put McCann that high on the list, and I would never have thought to put Martin that high. I suppose it shows how much emphasis BP puts on position scarcity.

Wonder what that says about Matt Weiters' value. FWIW, that's the guy I have my fingers crossed the Cubs will land @ #3.

[davearm]

I think Rickie Weeks is top ten. IMO he's better than Cano, who I don't value in the top 15 or so.

Curious if you're prepared yet to admit you were wrong here, seeing as Cano currently sits at #10 amongst MLB 2Bs with a VORP of 19.9, while Weeks and his 1.0 VORP (good for #31 in MLB) have been shipped out to AAA.