anyone else not sold on Sherrill as closer?

[Flip217]

You guys are a hoot. BTW, my offer to bet you guys about Sherrill still stands. I've got $100 that says that AM is not gonna "flip him for prospects at the deadline". What? No takers? How could that be? You don't suppose there's a "faction" of big talkers who back pedal a lot, do you? (This kinda reminds me of when SG was claiming AM agreed with him about his kamikaze rebuilding scheme, so I tried to bet SG about how many new guys would be in the OD lineup. This was back before any of the off-season trades. I said, "4 max, but most probably 3". He wouldn't put his money where his mouth was either.)

I haven't read much of this thread, so I'm not really taking sides here...

...but I don't see how somebody's inclination to wager or not is supposed to validate or invalidate their point, or lend any more credence to your position.

Just my two cents.

[RShack]

I haven't read much of this thread, so I'm not really taking sides here...

...but I don't see how somebody's inclination to wager or not is supposed to validate or invalidate their point, or lend any more credence to your position.

Just my two cents.

Oh, I agree. You're right, it doesn't.

I was just goofing about how they call people who don't buy what they're selling a "faction", and reminding them that there was an offer about this "flip him" nonsense, that's all.

[CrimsonTribe]

Well, according to Lucky Jim's very own so-called "logic" (or is it a so-called "argument"?) , Drungo just attacked a strawman, and he is therefore obligated (by "Lucky Jim's Law") to do a bunch of research (because Lucky Jim said so) to find at least 5 quotes over the last 2 months wherein people said "I equate 'using age as one factor in determining a player's future worth to the Orioles' with 'trade anyone who's reached age 30'." Otherwise, Lucky Jim's very own "logic" proves that it's just a strawman, and therefore Lucky Jim's entire point is exactly wrong. (If we choose to take Lucky Jim at his word, that is.)

Now, whether Lucky Jim's "logic" applies in the "court of common sense" is probably another matter entirely. (Maybe we should ask a lawyer?)

You guys are a hoot. BTW, my offer to bet you guys about Sherrill still stands. I've got $100 that says that AM is not gonna "flip him for prospects at the deadline". What? No takers? How could that be? You don't suppose there's a "faction" of big talkers who back pedal a lot, do you? (This kinda reminds me of when SG was claiming AM agreed with him about his kamikaze rebuilding scheme, so I tried to bet SG about how many new guys would be in the OD lineup. This was back before any of the off-season trades. I said, "4 max, but most probably 3". He wouldn't put his money where his mouth was either.)

I'm pretty sure you're the "faction."

[Lucky Jim]

Well, according to Lucky Jim's very own so-called "logic" (or is it a so-called "argument"?) , Drungo just attacked a strawman, and he is therefore obligated (by "Lucky Jim's Law") to do a bunch of research (because Lucky Jim said so) to find at least 5 quotes over the last 2 months wherein people said "I equate 'using age as one factor in determining a player's future worth to the Orioles' with 'trade anyone who's reached age 30'." Otherwise, Lucky Jim's very own "logic" proves that it's just a strawman, and therefore Lucky Jim's entire point is exactly wrong. (If we choose to take Lucky Jim at his word, that is.)

Now, whether Lucky Jim's "logic" applies in the "court of common sense" is probably another matter entirely. (Maybe we should ask a lawyer?)

You guys are a hoot. BTW, my offer to bet you guys about Sherrill still stands. I've got $100 that says that AM is not gonna "flip him for prospects at the deadline". What? No takers? How could that be? You don't suppose there's a "faction" of big talkers who back pedal a lot, do you? (This kinda reminds me of when SG was claiming AM agreed with him about his kamikaze rebuilding scheme, so I tried to bet SG about how many new guys would be in the OD lineup. This was back before any of the off-season trades. I said, "4 max, but most probably 3". He wouldn't put his money where his mouth was either.)

My agreement was with the "absurd simplification." I'll make sure I quote more narrowly from here on out so that you might be able to keep your focus on the point at hand.

[LookitsPuck]

Well, according to Lucky Jim's very own so-called "logic" (or is it a so-called "argument"?) , Drungo just attacked a strawman, and he is therefore obligated (by "Lucky Jim's Law") to do a bunch of research (because Lucky Jim said so) to find at least 5 quotes over the last 2 months wherein people said "I equate 'using age as one factor in determining a player's future worth to the Orioles' with 'trade anyone who's reached age 30'." Otherwise, Lucky Jim's very own "logic" proves that it's just a strawman, and therefore Lucky Jim's entire point is exactly wrong. (If we choose to take Lucky Jim at his word, that is.)

Now, whether Lucky Jim's "logic" applies in the "court of common sense" is probably another matter entirely. (Maybe we should ask a lawyer?)

You guys are a hoot. BTW, my offer to bet you guys about Sherrill still stands. I've got $100 that says that AM is not gonna "flip him for prospects at the deadline". What? No takers? How could that be? You don't suppose there's a "faction" of big talkers who back pedal a lot, do you? (This kinda reminds me of when SG was claiming AM agreed with him about his kamikaze rebuilding scheme, so I tried to bet SG about how many new guys would be in the OD lineup. This was back before any of the off-season trades. I said, "4 max, but most probably 3". He wouldn't put his money where his mouth was either.)

IF Sherrill puts up decent numbers, then, I'll take that bet.

I still think you're a big s-talker, as well.

[LookitsPuck]

My agreement was with the "absurd simplification." I'll make sure I quote more narrowly from here on out so that you might be able to keep your focus on the point at hand.

Good luck with that. His wild allegations are exactly that. Wild.

Pats himself on the back all the time, but for all the wrong reasons. I.e. puts words in peoples mouths, calls them out for it, and then proclaims victory when they don't respond. Ridiculous.

[joldey]

Sherrill is not a closer. He is however arguably the best left handed arm coming out of any bullpen. His greatest value to this team would be as a lefty specialist/8th inning arm in the long run.

By making him the closer, if the Orioles have no intention of trading him, they are costing themselves a boat load of money for the next few years. It will kill them in arbitration.

[Oriolesfan4life]

Sherrill is not a closer. He is however arguably the best left handed arm coming out of any bullpen. His greatest value to this team would be as a lefty specialist/8th inning arm in the long run.

By making him the closer, if the Orioles have no intention of trading him, they are costing themselves a boat load of money for the next few years. It will kill them in arbitration.

There is no one else better suited to close. It's that simple.

Your closer doesn't have to throw 98 MPH to get the job done. Look at Todd Jones for example...

[Sports Guy]

SG,

I think you would have to agree from watching Sherrill thus far that he clearly has good control and command. High walk rate typically means control and/or command problems, but not always. I clearly think it doesn't mean that for Sherrill. It seems to me that he occasionally walks guys that he doesn't want to walk, but he uses the edges of the strike zone strategically against certain bad match ups and, if he walks them, so be it. Glavine has done the same thing for years as have many other pitchers. I think that is intelligent pitching. It may cost him on occasion, but I still agree with the premise. This is exactly the sort of thing that can not be measured via statistics IMO.

I have the same contention re: fly ball rate. All fly balls are not created equal. Not by a long shot. I'd feel a lot better about that rate if it were sub-divided into more categories. Something like

1) pop ups to foul territory, infield, or caught by an infielder (even if in the outfield)

2) medium fly balls (caught by an outfielder, but not within 25 feet of the fence and with a certain amount of trajectory)

3) line drives (anything with less than a certain amount of trajectory that is hit in the air)

4) long fly balls (caught by an outfielder within 25 feet of the fence)

I'm a firm believer that #1 and #2 don't have a damn thing to do with long term home run percentage and I actually believe these things are better than grounders. Likewise, I believe that some pitchers have the "skill" to create these sorts of hits.

#4 is clearly a concern for long term HR%. #3 is clearly a concern for both HR% and not fooling a soul at the plate.

Fly ball % today is a lot like cholesterol count was up until the last 5 years. Everything was lumped into a couple categories, but the truth is that the real story was in sub-categories that often weren't tracked. If anybody doesn't know what I'm talking about re: cholesterol and still gets their numbers quoted as HDL, LDL, and Triglycerides, please do yourself a favor and read up on this important subject. Your doctor could be not only telling you less than the full story, your numbers can look "good" using these cats when you're actually at a super high risk. Likewise, you could be on medication for absolutely no reason at all.

I see a lot of excuses here.

Bottom line is Sherrill walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of flyballs.

Yes, not all flyballs are created equal but a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs is going to give up homers unless he is in an environment where the balls don't leave the yard a lot(like Safeco, Petco, etc..)

His CAREER walk rate is well over 4.

His career HR rate is very good BUT he did that in Safeco and when he faced more more lefties than righties.

He is, without question, going to be much more suseptible to the home run ball this year than he is ever has unless he starts getting more groundballs.

[Boy Howdy]

I see a lot of excuses here.

Bottom line is Sherrill walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of flyballs.

Yes, not all flyballs are created equal but a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs is going to give up homers unless he is in an environment where the balls don't leave the yard a lot(like Safeco, Petco, etc..)

His CAREER walk rate is well over 4.

His career HR rate is very good BUT he did that in Safeco and when he faced more more lefties than righties.

He is, without question, going to be much more suseptible to the home run ball this year than he is ever has unless he starts getting more groundballs.

OK, so how do you explain Sherrill's career home-road splits, understanding that the vast majority of the home numbers were logged in Safeco?

Home: .206/.304./.351 (.655 OPS) 262 ab / 8 hr

Road: .207/.299/ .285 (.584 OPS) 242 ab / 4 hr

[Sports Guy]

OK, so how do you explain Sherrill's career home-road splits, understanding that the vast majority of the home numbers were logged in Safeco?

Home: .206/.304./.351 (.655 OPS) 262 ab / 8 hr

Road: .207/.299/ .285 (.584 OPS) 242 ab / 4 hr

Well, that is a bad HR rate at Safeco...He threw half his innings in that park.

Of the remaining 50+ innings, 17 of them were in Oakland, SD and LAA...3 good pitchers parks and he didn't allow a homer in those parks, so that helps a lot.

Besides, the other element here is him facing more righties and more innings pitched, which could lead to fatigue..Also, his GB/FB rate has gotten worse every year.

[Boy Howdy]

Well, that is a bad HR rate at Safeco...He threw half his innings in that park.

Of the remaining 50+ innings, 17 of them were in Oakland, SD and LAA...3 good pitchers parks and he didn't allow a homer in those parks, so that helps a lot.

Besides, the other element here is him facing more righties and more innings pitched, which could lead to fatigue..Also, his GB/FB rate has gotten worse every year.

What were you just saying about seeing "a lot of excuses"?

[RShack]

All fly balls are not created equal. Not by a long shot. I'd feel a lot better about that rate if it were sub-divided into more categories. Something like

1) pop ups to foul territory, infield, or caught by an infielder (even if in the outfield)

2) medium fly balls (caught by an outfielder, but not within 25 feet of the fence and with a certain amount of trajectory)

3) line drives (anything with less than a certain amount of trajectory that is hit in the air)

4) long fly balls (caught by an outfielder within 25 feet of the fence)

I'm a firm believer that #1 and #2 don't have a damn thing to do with long term home run percentage and I actually believe these things are better than grounders. Likewise, I believe that some pitchers have the "skill" to create these sorts of hits.

#4 is clearly a concern for long term HR%. #3 is clearly a concern for both HR% and not fooling a soul at the plate.

Fly ball % today is a lot like cholesterol count was up until the last 5 years. Everything was lumped into a couple categories, but the truth is that the real story was in sub-categories that often weren't tracked. If anybody doesn't know what I'm talking about re: cholesterol and still gets their numbers quoted as HDL, LDL, and Triglycerides, please do yourself a favor and read up on this important subject. Your doctor could be not only telling you less than the full story, your numbers can look "good" using these cats when you're actually at a super high risk. Likewise, you could be on medication for absolutely no reason at all.

Well, this is pretty hard to argue with.

Does somebody keep track of flyballs like that?

Seems like they ought to...

[Sports Guy]

I'm not sure why you see "a lot of excuses" here. I didn't even quantify the fly ball rate stuff I wrote relative to Sherrill. It was a general statement about nobody in particular. I just wondered how it applied to Sherrill. I have no idea what types of fly balls he produces so I can currently draw no conclusion about it at all.

Anyway, I'm sorry that you have chosen to rebuke my post with nothing but "these are excuses" and "bottom line" prognostications that are simply repeats of what you originally wrote. I wasn't even saying you were wrong. I just wondering if you agreed that a deeper look may be necessary to draw conclusions. Clearly, his homer rate should be higher this year IF ALL THINGS STAY EQUAL since he is now pitching half his game at OPACY rather than Safeco. I was wondering if we could figure out how high and parse out any non-park related changes from last year to this year.

I was hoping you would acknowledge that steadfast conclusions can't be drawn based on two fairly simplistic statistics. I was hoping maybe the board could have a baseball discussion about it.

I don't sit there and chart every flyball hit off of Sherrill.

However, I can read stats and I have common sense...Common sense tells you that high FB rate + good homer park = good probability of a lot of homers hit.

Do you not agree with that?

My point is that all your possibilities about flyballs don't really change the point I was making about Sherrill.

And with his higher walk rate, increased workload and him facing more righties, it is extremely reasonable to think these homers won't just be solo homers and some will cause us to lose games.

[Sports Guy]

What were you just saying about seeing "a lot of excuses"?

You can call them excuses, i will call them legit concerns.

Keep that head buried in the sand!