Better Career, Wilson or Wright?

[Frobby]

I'm not trying to take anything away from The Moose, I'm a huge fan. Maddux and Martinez were just beyond top shelf.

How did we get from comparing Wilson and Wright to comparing Mussina, Martinez and Maddux?

[Es4M11]

Yes, Clemens has a reasonable case as the best pitcher ever.

Yea, but is there any doubt that he was a steroid user? Surely you remember the bat incident with Piazza - if that's not 'roid rage, I don't know what is.

Could be completely wrong, but I don't suspect Maddux or Martinez were on the juice.

[DrungoHazewood]

How did we get from comparing Wilson and Wright to comparing Mussina, Martinez and Maddux?

Well... you could read the thread.

It went from "Wilson doesn't throw hard enough to have a career" to the almost inevitable "Greg Maddux didn't throw that hard and he's in the Hall of Fame" and on from there.

[Es4M11]

How did we get from comparing Wilson and Wright to comparing Mussina, Martinez and Maddux?

Someone was saying something to the effect that Wilson is likely not to be as successful because of his 88-91 MPH FB, I noted that Maddux dominated with that type of velocity. Snowballed from there. I'll try and stay on topic.

Edit: Drungo beat me to it

[Can_of_corn]

Imagine Pedro or Clemens on a 20" mound in Dodger Stadium with a knees-to-shoulders strike zone facing Ray Oyler.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-imagining-the-big-zone-sixties-part-1-1963-1965/

Here’s what these calculations reveal: 1963-68 walk rates were lower than the six surrounding years by about 15%, strikeouts were up by about 8%, and base hits were down by about 4% (including doubles by 5%, triples by 2%, and homers by 10%). The effect of all of this was to inhibit scoring overall by about 11%.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yea, but is there any doubt that he was a steroid user? Surely you remember the bat incident with Piazza - if that's not 'roid rage, I don't know what is.

Certainly. We have some people connected to the situation but with conflicting motives that say he did it. But no hard evidence so far as I know. And using the bat incident as proof? Really? If that's the bar, then me and roughly 75% of the people I've played rec softball/soccer with are heavy 'roid abusers. Even us 5' 7" 140-pounders.

Could be completely wrong, but I don't suspect Maddux or Martinez were on the juice.

You certainly could be wrong. Speculation and guessing isn't anything like proof. When it comes to steroids we have have precious little proof of anything. So let's go ahead and convict or acquit on rumor and hearsay, since not having a firm opinion is much worse than having a strongly-held opinion based on innuendo.

[Es4M11]

Certainly. We have some people connected to the situation but with conflicting motives that say he did it. But no hard evidence so far as I know. And using the bat incident as proof? Really? If that's the bar, then me and roughly 75% of the people I've played rec softball/soccer with are heavy 'roid abusers. Even us 5' 7" 140-pounders.

You certainly could be wrong. Speculation and guessing isn't anything like proof. When it comes to steroids we have have precious little proof of anything. So let's go ahead and convict or acquit on rumor and hearsay, since not having a firm opinion is much worse than having a strongly-held opinion based on innuendo.

The cats been out of the bag on Clemens and steroids for a long time. Didn't think I needed to provide anything more than anecdotal evidence. And I highly doubt you and your softball buddies are throwing shattered bats at runners in play.

As for Maddux and Martinez - as I basically said, I don't know, just a feeling/opinion. Good thing I'm posting on a sports message board and not making accusations in court, huh?

[DrungoHazewood]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-imagining-the-big-zone-sixties-part-1-1963-1965/

So, back-of-the-napkin, 11% reduction for league, 10% reduction for Dodger Stadium, and some adjustment for higher quality league and a DH in the 1990-2010 era, and Pedro's 2.93 career ERA becomes something like 2.00-2.25 in the context of prime era Sandy Koufax. His peaks under 2.00 are probably around 1.00 in context.

Or you could just use his ERA+ which is 2nd all time (behind Kershaw who's in mid-career and hasn't declined yet) and peak of 291 which is basically the best ever once you discount Tim Keefe's slightly better mark in a vastly inferior league.

[DrungoHazewood]

The cats been out of the bag on Clemens and steroids for a long time. Didn't think I needed to provide anything more than anecdotal evidence. And I highly doubt you and your softball buddies are throwing shattered bats at runners in play.

As for Maddux and Martinez - as I basically said, I don't know, just a feeling/opinion. Good thing I'm posting on a sports message board and not making accusations in court, huh?

Yes, the "cat's out of the bag" with regards to steroid use whenever some guy on talk radio in the morning heard some dude who totally saw Clemens injecting horse steroids 68 times. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, whatever, his performance record is as good as anyone who ever pitched.

[Can_of_corn]

So, back-of-the-napkin, 11% reduction for league, 10% reduction for Dodger Stadium, and some adjustment for higher quality league and a DH in the 1990-2010 era, and Pedro's 2.93 career ERA becomes something like 2.00-2.25 in the context of prime era Sandy Koufax. His peaks under 2.00 are probably around 1.00 in context.

Or you could just use his ERA+ which is 2nd all time (behind Kershaw who's in mid-career and hasn't declined yet) and peak of 291 which is basically the best ever once you discount Tim Keefe's slightly better mark in a vastly inferior league.

I was just trying to add some context about the strike zone for those that didn't know about it.

[Es4M11]

Yes, the "cat's out of the bag" with regards to steroid use whenever some guy on talk radio in the morning heard some dude who totally saw Clemens injecting horse steroids 68 times. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, whatever, his performance record is as good as anyone who ever pitched.

So Andy Pettite, a good friend of Clemens, testifying in court that Clemens admitted he used HGH is just "some guy on the radio"?

But yea, Clemens' numbers are pretty impressive.

[DrungoHazewood]

I was just trying to add some context about the strike zone for those that didn't know about it.

Yea, and I was just running with that. I think it's difficult to internalize run context. When I first started reading about that 30 years ago it took a while to get my head around the fact that sometimes a 3.75 ERA is way better than a 2.00. Or that .340/40/128 could be a 1-win player.

[DrungoHazewood]

So Andy Pettite, a good friend of Clemens, testifying in court that Clemens admitted he used HGH is just "some guy on the radio"?

I don't know, I stopped trying to link together all the rumors and 5th-hand accounts years ago. Just decided that there's a good chance everyone used something and stopped really caring one way or the other, especially since there's almost no hard proof either way for 90% of the guys in the league.

Except Ortiz and ARod and Tex and a few others I just assume are injecting industrial quantities of something hourly.

[Can_of_corn]

Yea, and I was just running with that. I think it's difficult to internalize run context. When I first started reading about that 30 years ago it took a while to get my head around the fact that sometimes a 3.75 ERA is way better than a 2.00. Or that .340/40/128 could be a 1-win player.

Thankfully I've never had that problem. Must be the history buff in me, I'm used to judging things in their chronological context.

[Es4M11]

I don't know, I stopped trying to link together all the rumors and 5th-hand accounts years ago. Just decided that there's a good chance everyone used something and stopped really caring one way or the other, especially since there's almost no hard proof either way for 90% of the guys in the league.

Except Ortiz and ARod and Tex and a few others I just assume are injecting industrial quantities of something hourly.

I'm with you on Ortiz. No way he is doing what he's doing without "help".