45 games left

[SilentJames]

Starting tonight the Orioles have 45 games remaining on their schedule.

How many do we think the Orioles will need to win to A)win the division B)make the playoffs?

Current record - 66-51

SJ predictions

Win the division 27-18

Make the playoffs 23-22

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[Frobby]

Let's start with the wild card. To win 89 games, as you suggest:

Tigers would need to go 26-19 (.578)

Mariners would need to go 27-19 (.587)

Astros would need to go 28-16 (.636)

I think you are right that 89 wins gets us to the wild card. But to play the game at home, I'm guessing takes 91+ wins.

As to the division title, 27-18 would get us to 93 wins. That sounds about right to me.

[weams]

Let's start with the wild card. To win 89 games, as you suggest:

Tigers would need to go 26-19 (.578)

Mariners would need to go 27-19 (.587)

Astros would need to go 28-16 (.636)

I think you are right that 89 wins gets us to the wild card. But to play the game at home, I'm guessing takes 91+ wins.

As to the division title, 27-18 would get us to 93 wins. That sounds about right to me.

Figure none of those team could play better than .600 ball. So down to two.

[sportsfan8703]

We're 7-6 through August with 16 games left. We knew this was going to be a hard month. 10-6 would be real nice with the 5 games against BOS and TOR.

We have 11 homes games the rest of the month. 8-3 would be real nice considering are road struggles.

[bpilktree]

I am still worried we loose division by the stupid inter league play. It will most likely cost us a game because we play much harder opponent.

[El Gordo]

We need to go 29-16 to win the division. 93 is not going to get it done.

If TOR continues to play at their current rate they will end with 92 W.

[O's84]

We have 9 games against Boston, 6 against Toronto, 4 games against Houston, 4 games against Washington, and 3 games against Detroit.

On the flip side we have 9 games against New York, 7 games against Tampa Bay, and 3 games against Arizona.

So # games against good teams: BOS 9, TOR 6, HOU 4, WSH 4, DET 3

# games against mediocre or bad teams: NYY 9, TB 7, ARI 3

[crawjo]

If they go anything less than 45-0 it will be an absolute catastrophe. I mean, whole threads will be created panicking after each loss. For the health of the board, the Orioles absolutely must finish with a record of 111-51.

I would also strongly urge them not to trail in any of these games either.

[Frobby]

We have 9 games against Boston' date=' 6 against Toronto, 4 games against Houston, 4 games against Washington, and 3 games against Detroit.

On the flip side we have 9 games against New York, 7 games against Tampa Bay, and 3 games against Arizona.

So # games against good teams: BOS 9, TOR 6, HOU 4, WSH 4, DET 3

# games against mediocre or bad teams: NYY 9, TB 7, ARI 3[/quote']

I think Houston is half a game ahead of New York.

[O's84]

I think Houston is half a game ahead of New York.

You are right. I just consider HOU a better team and more of a threat to the Wild Card. Run differential of +44 to NYY's -30.

But you can make a case the other way as well. I was actually thinking about saying "# games against good or decent teams" but just decided not to do it.

[SilentJames]

And there we have it.

The Yanks did us a favor and beat the Jays tonight so the top of the division is all even with 45 games to go.

Welcome to the official start of the playoff race.

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[Frobby]

And there we have it.

The Yanks did us a favor and beat the Jays tonight so the top of the division is all even with 45 games to go.

Welcome to the official start of the playoff race.

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Yeah, it's going to be a dogfight between....never mind, I said that a month ago!

[SilentJames]

Pretty sure I agreed with you then

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[bpilktree]

Magic number of 42 to make the playoffs right now.

[accinfo]

With 25 of the 45 being home games. Right now they are playing .700 at home. If they can win the rest at the pace of .650 that gives them 16 home wins. Then if they can go 10-10 on the road they win 36 more for a total of 92. I think that is all very reasonable.