Buck: Chris will be a good pitcher next year

[weams]

On 9/24/2017 at 11:38 PM, Three Run Homer said:

I'd like someone (Buck, or someone) to offer a theory of how Tillman could be good next season given how historically bad he was this season.  

If his shoulder is not right, then he needs surgery.

If he needs a mechanical overhaul, McDowell had all summer to do it, and whatever he's done it hasn't worked.  

If Tillman loves being in Baltimore so much, then he should be willing to sign a minor league contract to stay in the organization and hopefully prove he belongs here again.  I can't imagine he will get a guaranteed major league contract from another organization.  

Dave Johnson says that he changed his arm angle to avoid the pain and needs to refine a release point and increase his spin rate to return to satisfactory performance. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Dave Johnson says that he changed his arm angle to avoid the pain and needs to refine a release point and increase his spin rate to return to satisfactory performance. 

The arm angle was the thing that jumped out to me, I wish I had easy access to that spin data that the team's have.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

The arm angle was the thing that jumped out to me, I wish I had easy access to that spin data that the team's have.

You have seen this right?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

The arm angle was the thing that jumped out to me, I wish I had easy access to that spin data that the team's have.

What does this tell you?

[Luke-OH]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have seen this right?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

 

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What does this tell you?

I didn't realize it had spin.  That chart by itself doesn't tell me much, but I just quickly looked through some of the data along with some pitch value data and here's the takeaway.

 

The difference between Tillman last year and Tillman this year (beside the control issues, likely to stem from an inconsistent release point and unfamiliar arm angle) is that last year his 4S fastball was his most successful pitch and this year it has gotten bad results. 

The velocity on the pitch is down about 1.5mph, but that doesn't fully explain the drop off. 

Looking at the spin rate, it looks like the it has dropped from 2300RPM (a bit above average) to around 2200RPM (about average).  High spin 4S fastballs tend to generate swings and misses at a higher rate.  Low spin 4S fastballs tend to generate groundballs.  Average spin 4S fastballs tend to be easier to hit (for example, Gausman's flat 4Ser has an average spin rate).  So with the decreased spin and decreased velocity, you've got a batting practice fastball.

 

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Dave Johnson says that he changed his arm angle to avoid the pain and needs to refine a release point and increase his spin rate to return to satisfactory performance. 

I've been saying that since he began the season. Looking at video from this year compared to last year you can see a noticeable change in arm slot. Now, he's been saying all year he's 100% healthy, but if he's changing his arm slot to avoid pain, then it sounds like he's not completely healthy.

Regardless, with a different release point his command has suffered. I'm not sure it'll be that easy to get back to his expected performance levels.

[mdbdotcom]

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

I'd like to see Tillman pitching well for the O's again.   I think in spite of what he says that he is not at full strength and a off season of working with the trainer sand strength guys in Sarasota will do him a world of good.   I can't prove it but I think its possible.   Nice that he lives in Sarasota.

But what Tillman and Buck and everyone else says is that he favored the shoulder when he hurt it last season and that caused a slight change in his mechanics. He wasn't able to fix them this season. Trainers and conditioning have nothing to do with it. His motion is slightly out of whack, and it's enough to make him ineffective. After his last outing the other day he said that in his final inning it finally clicked for him. I hope he gets another start this weekend so we can see.

Your prescription for Tillman seems irrelevant, unless everyone on the team is lying about this. If he gets another start and can't put it together, he should work with Searage to get his mechanics in order, because the Pirates' coach is the best at fixing pitchers in Chris's situation.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

 

Your prescription for Tillman seems irrelevant, unless everyone on the team is lying about this. If he gets another start and can't put it together, he should work with Searage to get his mechanics in order, because the Pirates' coach is the best at fixing pitchers in Chris's situation.

Could you elaborate on why Searage is uniquely qualified to address Tillman's issues?

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Could you elaborate on why Searage is uniquely qualified to address Tillman's issues?

I didn't say he was uniquely qualified. I implied that he has the best track record among active pitching coaches at reviving careers. Does anyone dispute that?

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I didn't say he was uniquely qualified. I implied that he has the best track record among active pitching coaches at reviving careers. Does anyone dispute that?

I'm not asking a rhetorical question.    I'm pretty ignorant of Searage's accomplishments, so I'm looking for information.   Whose careers has he revived?    Were any of them dealing with physical issues similar to Tillman's?

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Could you elaborate on why Searage is uniquely qualified to address Tillman's issues?

In recent years the Pittsburgh Pirates have become known for ‘fixing’ pitchers. A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, Edinson Volquez, and J.A. Happ are just some examples of this. A big reason for this has been due to the Pirates having one of the best, if not the best, pitching coach in all of Major League Baseball in Ray Searage.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/rumbunter.com/2016/08/12/ray-searage-still-pitcher-whisperer/amp/

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/03/28/pittsburgh-pirates-ray-searage-pitching-coach

[Il BuonO]

This one might answer your question the best. Finding out specific injuries of players under his watch will take more digging.

This offseason, the Pirates brought in a handful of pitchers looking to rebound from injuries or poor performances. They've run into different problems: bad habits, nagging medical issues, mechanical flaws. But their stories all reach a similar conclusion.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/166757902/ray-searage-is-the-pirates-pitcher-whisperer/

[mdbdotcom]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not asking a rhetorical question.    I'm pretty ignorant of Searage's accomplishments, so I'm looking for information.   Whose careers has he revived?    Were any of them dealing with physical issues similar to Tillman's?

A.J. Burnett, Vance Worley, Edinson Volquez, Charlie Morton, J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano are some of the pitchers he's helped turn around. I don't know how many of them had experienced shoulder problems like Tillman. Here's an article about him from last year.

[Frobby]

Thanks for the info.    I note that the Pirates haven't been quite as successful with their pitchers in 2016-17 as they were when some of these articles were written.    Still, Searage does have a good track record.    

[Tx Oriole]

On 9/25/2017 at 4:53 PM, wildcard said:

Nothing,  if he doesn't believe he will be good next year.

I don't care what Buck says or thinks about Tilman. I just hope he is not on the O's next season. But I won't be surprised if DD brings him  back.