Ryan McKenna 2019

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

There are 19 hitters in the Eastern League with a minimum of 126 at-bats that are 22 or younger. There are more than 19 good hitting prospects in the Eastern League.

Picking a year at random, 2015, the following Eastern League hitters were over 22 (minimum 141 at-bats):

JaCoby Jones, Adam Frazier, Try Mancini, Aaron Judge, Wilmer Difo, Tyler Naquin, Aaron Altherr

There were 21 hitters 22 and under that year, 21 of them have made the Majors, the only one who hasn't, Hunter Cole, currently has a .908 OPS in the PCL and probably will be called up in September.

 

 

8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

There are 19 hitters in the Eastern League with a minimum of 126 at-bats that are 22 or younger. There are more than 19 good hitting prospects in the Eastern League.

Picking a year at random, 2015, the following Eastern League hitters were over 22 (minimum 141 at-bats):

JaCoby Jones, Adam Frazier, Try Mancini, Aaron Judge, Wilmer Difo, Tyler Naquin, Aaron Altherr

There were 21 hitters 22 and under that year, 21 of them have made the Majors, the only one who hasn't, Hunter Cole, currently has a .908 OPS in the PCL and probably will be called up in September.

 

First, I agree that 22 is still “young” for a AA prospect.  23 and 24 are the prime ages. But it is not as young as your numbers suggest. Only a subset of players spend a whole or most of a season there, so you are excluding 22 year olds who were promoted after the start of the season. There are two other 22 year old players currently on the Bowie roster, for example (one is a hitter...Torres is actually 21, not 22 but he’s got the same birth year as MCKenna so I’ll count him as 22). Second, you are ignoring the players who are above AA.  For example, I quickly skimmed the list of players who have played in the majors this year and counted ten 22 year olds who played in the majors this year and I didn’t make it past the B’s. BUT, I do agree that 22 is still very young for AA.  But there are 22 year olds on most teams and many good prospects spend part of the year at AA.   

 

I think your 2015 choices are an interesting comparison.  Most of those guys dramatically out hit McKenna in AA.  Most of them were over .800 OPS and a couple were hammering the ball.  Trey Mancini, for example, crushed AA pitching at that age.  Really only one player hit as poorly as McKenna and Difo has been a part time, all glove middle infielder for a few years.  Being average in AA at 22 tells you very little.  Being average at 19 in AA or being a monster in AA at 22 would tell you more.  If you don’t believe me, then you can find the age adjustment regressions online and play with the numbers.  McKenna’s age won’t change much.  I think McKenna playing at AA this year is a product of the Orioles aggressive promotion of him last year.  

 

Again, I’m not trying to be a tit for tat internet jerk.  My tone often comes off as far more aggressive than I mean to sound.  I’m still very, very skeptical of McKenna. I’m not convinced by the age argument.  I think his Frederick performance was a fluky tease.  I will, however, happily admit I was wrong if McKenna develops into a regular player.  I actually hope I am wrong.  Regardless of our differences of opinion, I think we can all agree that next year is critical for his future development.  If he starts the year hit at Bowie, then I am sure he will spend significant time in Norfolk.  If he hits, then all will be well.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

First, I agree that 22 is still “young” for a AA prospect.  23 and 24 are the prime ages. But it is not as young as your numbers suggest. Only a subset of players spend a whole or most of a season there, so you are excluding 22 year olds who were promoted after the start of the season. There are two other 22 year old players currently on the Bowie roster, for example (one is a hitter...Torres is actually 21, not 22 but he’s got the same birth year as MCKenna so I’ll count him as 22). Second, you are ignoring the players who are above AA.  For example, I quickly skimmed the list of players who have played in the majors this year and counted ten 22 year olds who played in the majors this year and I didn’t make it past the B’s. BUT, I do agree that 22 is still very young for AA.  But there are 22 year olds on most teams and many good prospects spend part of the year at AA.   

This is from a Kiley McDainel chat on Fangraphs today:

Logan: When you talk about someone being young/old for their level, what are those ages at each level?   1:18 Kiley McDaniel: For prospects, the baseline is 18 – Rookie 19 – short-season 20 – Low-A 21 – High-A 22 – Double-A 23 – Triple-A   1:18 Kiley McDaniel: if a prospect is younger than those benchmarks, its a notable feather in the cap and you can round up a bit   1:1l9 Kiley McDaniel: for top 100-type prospects, they tend to be a level/year ahead of this rubric, starting Low-A at age 19 in first full season after being a HS pick, 17 in rookie ball after being J2 signee

[wildcard]

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

[survivedc]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

We were able to keep Rickard who was more prepared with his bat, but it sounds like McKenna could be a capable 4th OF right now.

[bobmc]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

Does plus plus speed with "great" D play? (cough Ricky Martin cough)

dWAR is not an exact science @weams

[LookinUp]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

I think you have to keep him unless you're convinced he's never going to hit. I'm not high on him, but I actually think it's a no brainer for this org.

[DirtyBird]

 Think he has more upside than Cedric Mullins

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think you have to keep him unless you're convinced he's never going to hit. I'm not high on him, but I actually think it's a no brainer for this org.

Its not a question of whether the O's keep him.  Its a question on whether someone would claim him as a Rule 5 guy and keep him all season.   If the other team doesn't keep him all season then he comes back to the O's.

Survivedc's comment about being a 4th outfielder makes me think he might be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  I mean if some team still wants Broxton in the majors then maybe someone would take McKenna and keep him.

[LookinUp]

Just now, wildcard said:

Its not a question of whether the O's keep him.  Its a question on whether someone would claim him as a Rule 5 guy and keep him all season.   If the other team doesn't keep him all season then he comes back to the O's.

Survivedc's comment about being a 4th outfielder makes me think he might be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  I mean if some team still wants Broxton in the majors then maybe someone would take McKenna and keep him.

Absolutely. I don't think he'd be a particularly hard stash, especially in the NL with as much substituting as they do. 

[Ohfan67]

I’m a doubter and I would keep him. 

[Ohfan67]

Interesting aside about McKenna’s age: Mountcastle is four days older than McKenna. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Interesting aside about McKenna’s age: Mountcastle is four days older than McKenna. 

And Cadyn Grenier is older than both of them.

 

Woot, got my Grenier dig in for the week already.

[MurphDogg]

McKenna with two doubles and a walk tonight in his first four plate appearances. Line sits and .231/.321/.368.

He has had a miserable August, with a .565 OPS coming into tonight, following his best month of the season, an .822 OPS July.

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

McKenna with two doubles and a walk tonight in his first four plate appearances. Line sits and .231/.321/.368.

He has had a miserable August, with a .565 OPS coming into tonight, following his best month of the season, an .822 OPS July.

He's looked miserable at the plate the last week or so, bad body language, poor confidence. It looks like he needs the offseason to get himself together. The ability is there, I mean, he still lashes the balls at times and the defensive ability is strong. 

[MurphDogg]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He's looked miserable at the plate the last week or so, bad body language, poor confidence. It looks like he needs the offseason to get himself together. The ability is there, I mean, he still lashes the balls at times and the defensive ability is strong. 

Hopefully he gets his head right and has a good year at Norfolk.