O's 2020 MLB Draft Chat: Picking #2/30/39/74

[MountUrCastle]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is Tork a given at #1? If so, I’d go with Martin. Too unsettling using the #2 pick on a SP

All signs so far point to Tork at 1, yes.

 

I have to say i've warmed up a lot to Martin recently. Would it be too far to say he could become Whitt Merrifield in application?

[Greg Pappas]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-prospect-austin-martin?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Greg Pappas]

Some interesting comments from Jim Callis:

Quote

“If Torkelson doesn’t go No. 1, I think Mike Elias would say, ‘Thank you very much,’ and take Torkelson. If he goes one, I don’t think it’s a clear-cut decision at No. 2 yet. Austin Martin is No. 2 on our prospect list. Very good player at Vanderbilt. Led the SEC in hitting and on-base last year, the best conference in college baseball.

“There is some question to where he will play. He opened this year at third, didn’t throw well and they move him to the outfield in center. Is he a center fielder, a third baseman, an offensive second baseman? That is a little unclear, but he is the best pure hitter in this draft. But I don’t think he’s a lock at No. 2. I think there are a number of teams that would take Asa Lacy ahead of him. He’s the best pitcher in this draft.”

This from Jonathan Mayo in an interview with PressBox:

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PB: Let’s just say Torkelson goes one and the Orioles are sitting there looking at Martin at two. It feels like the conversation has shifted in that he’s being looked at as a center fielder. Is that the best bet for Martin and where he ends up playing?

JM: That’s the likelihood. I gave the sort of very, very small negative to the fact that he hadn’t played shortstop this year. The positive is maybe he could play center field. Maybe he can play third base. I think whoever drafts him will send him out as a shortstop and then you’ll see what happens. If it doesn’t work, he can play center. I think he’d be pretty good out there. The tools all play out there, and then maybe, what, you’re faced with an Adam Jones kind of player, and yes I did cherry pick that name for Orioles fans. But I saw Adam Jones in the minors as a shortstop, so it took me a second to be like, “Oh, he’s going to play center?” And then he turned into a good big-league center fielder. I think that if that’s your worst case, that’s still a really exciting player with an unbelievable feel for hitting who will play up the middle somewhere in all likelihood.

From an article on MLB.com, regarding who baseball execs favored to #1, Torkelson or Martin (Tork won handily):

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The case for Martin

While they were in the clear minority, Martin's backers pointed to his pure hitting ability, more all-around game and defensive versatility. Several of the executives who opted for Torkelson still lavished praise on Martin, with an AL scouting director saying that Martin would have the higher ceiling if he proves he can handle center field and an AL crosschecker opining that Martin has a chance to be an 80 hitter.

Here's what Martin's advocates had to say:

AL executive: "Martin, by a smidge, due to the positional versatility and superior contact ability. They’re both exceptional talents -- two of the better position players in the Draft in years. It’s a shame we won’t get to see the performance lines they would’ve put up this year. Torkelson will likely be the better hitter but Martin will have more overall value. In fact, Martin is among the most well-rounded college position players of the last decade."

NL crosschecker: "Martin is the better prospect. The only tool Torkelson has better is raw power and probably power production. Martin does have good usable power though. The hit tools are close to even but I would give Martin the edge. Athletically, they're not in the same hemisphere. Martin throws, runs and fields better than Torkelson. Martin is more versatile positionally. I saw him in center field this spring and he has a chance there."

 

[Jammer7]

On 5/21/2020 at 8:01 AM, waroriole said:

Is Tork a given at #1? If so, I’d go with Martin. Too unsettling using the #2 pick on a SP

I agree, generally. This year is a bit different to me. The junior year of the college pitchers did not allow for much development, but also limited the wear and tear on them. Traditionally, the junior years of college #1 pitchers, Friday night starters, are when they are perhaps over-used. Does that have any impact on your thoughts, negative or positive? Just curious.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I agree, generally. This year is a bit different to me. The junior year of the college pitchers did not allow for much development, but also limited the wear and tear on them. Traditionally, the junior years of college #1 pitchers, Friday night starters, are when they are perhaps over-used. Does that have any impact on your thoughts, negative or positive? Just curious.

Interesting point. I think I err on the side of caution when looking at such an early pick. It does make me a little less leery of a SP, but unless there’s a clear talent difference I prefer a hitter this high up. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Interesting point. I think I err on the side of caution when looking at such an early pick. It does make me a little less leery of a SP, but unless there’s a clear talent difference I prefer a hitter this high up. 

Less data could help or hinder the Orioles compared to other teams.  How good are Sig's projections?

[Jammer7]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Less data could help or hinder the Orioles compared to other teams.  How good are Sig's projections?

Agreed. Perhaps the scouting, in-person and video, is going to lead more so in the decision making. Projection seems to need to play a bigger role. The college guys should have some amount of data, and they've been followed for several years now. Luke had great timing with his new job.

[hoosiers]

Jammer,

below is the mlb writeup on Halpin.  It is a bit different than your critique.  As writeups go, not many flaws mentioned.  Mentions Halpin being underappreciated by scouts.  What I like is that he is young for his age so strength, power may be there but a bit behind in showing - reminding that .  Halpin is rated 74th for the class, but I think he is going to go a good bit earlier.  Maybe too early for 39 or maybe he signs for slot and we spend bigger with our third round pick.   The main hiccup to that strategy is that 39 is the first pick of the second round and I think the Os are going to put out a bunch of phone calls at the end of day 1 and will have something arranged for someone who slipped into the second day at 39 - pick 2:2.

Halpin wasn't considered an elite-level player as the summer showcase circuit started last summer, as evidenced by him not getting an invite to either the Perfect Game All-American Classic or the Under Armour All-American Game. But a strong performance in the PDP League led to a spot at the MLB High School All-Star Game in Cleveland and he performed well later in the summer at the Area Code Games to put him more firmly on the map.

The outfielder often displays impressive tools across the board. He's a plus runner, one who led the PDP League by going a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts, and that speed allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. He also has a very strong arm, one that's been up to 92 mph off the mound. He makes loud contact consistently from the left side of the plate and while he's hit over power now, he's shown the ability to drive the ball and was launching balls out at Angels Stadium this past fall during the Angels Elite showcase, the same event where 2019 first-rounder Keoni Cavaco showed up for the first time.

Halpin, who initially committed to UCLA but then decided to head out of state and play at Texas should the Draft not work out, might be underestimated by some scouts. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the more famous name among California prep outfielders, but don't be surprised if Halpin isn't all that far behind him.

 

[Jammer7]

On 5/26/2020 at 11:12 AM, hoosiers said:

Jammer,

below is the mlb writeup on Halpin.  It is a bit different than your critique.  As writeups go, not many flaws mentioned.  Mentions Halpin being underappreciated by scouts.  What I like is that he is young for his age so strength, power may be there but a bit behind in showing - reminding that .  Halpin is rated 74th for the class, but I think he is going to go a good bit earlier.  Maybe too early for 39 or maybe he signs for slot and we spend bigger with our third round pick.   The main hiccup to that strategy is that 39 is the first pick of the second round and I think the Os are going to put out a bunch of phone calls at the end of day 1 and will have something arranged for someone who slipped into the second day at 39 - pick 2:2.

Halpin wasn't considered an elite-level player as the summer showcase circuit started last summer, as evidenced by him not getting an invite to either the Perfect Game All-American Classic or the Under Armour All-American Game. But a strong performance in the PDP League led to a spot at the MLB High School All-Star Game in Cleveland and he performed well later in the summer at the Area Code Games to put him more firmly on the map.

The outfielder often displays impressive tools across the board. He's a plus runner, one who led the PDP League by going a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts, and that speed allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. He also has a very strong arm, one that's been up to 92 mph off the mound. He makes loud contact consistently from the left side of the plate and while he's hit over power now, he's shown the ability to drive the ball and was launching balls out at Angels Stadium this past fall during the Angels Elite showcase, the same event where 2019 first-rounder Keoni Cavaco showed up for the first time.

Halpin, who initially committed to UCLA but then decided to head out of state and play at Texas should the Draft not work out, might be underestimated by some scouts. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the more famous name among California prep outfielders, but don't be surprised if Halpin isn't all that far behind him.

 

Thanks for posting this. I read this Monday and meant to comment to you. Drastically different from BA’s write up that I referenced. Not my critique, theirs. I’ve never seen the kid. I am two years removed from most of the HS kids. I know many of the college Sophomores and Juniors fairly well. I have some info on the Central Florida kids, but that’s about all I got as a personal knowledge base. 
 

I like what MLB wrote about Halpin. If that is what Elias sees, then perhaps he’s higher on the board. I believe Elias May take 1-2 HS kids, at most. Just based on limited data and all. Quite polar reports, but that’s how it goes. One scout sees him on a bad few days. Another sees him on a good few games. What I take from that is inconsistency would make it tougher to draft him unless you are all in on him as an area scout and cross checker.

[Big Mac]

Latest mock from Keith Law: https://theathletic.com/1841204/2020/05/28/keith-laws-2020-mlb-mock-draft-first-round-projection-2-0/

Has the O's taking Martin but repeats the underslot rumors only instead says he has heard that guy could be Heston Kjerstad.  Say's that he has heard a few times they won't take a pitcher.

[MurphDogg]

Callis also saying underslot to Nick Gonzales is a possibility, ranking it more likely than taking a pitcher, though less likely than taking Martin (or presumably Tork, if the Tigers don't take him).

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2. Orioles: Austin Martin, OF/3B, Vanderbilt
Three scenarios keep coming up with the Orioles, in this order of plausibility: take Martin, the Draft's best pure hitter; cut a deal with similarly tooled New Mexico State middle infielder Nick Gonzales and use the savings to spend big at picks 30 and/or 39 with someone such as Oklahoma high school left-hander Dax Fulton; or grab Lacy.

[Greg Pappas]

Two guys I'm getting more interested in seeing the O's take at 30 or 39, are Arizona HS SS Carson Tucker and Florida HS RHP Carson Montgomery. Both with a lot of upside. I likee me some Carson, it seems.

 

Edit:  Justin Lange and Tanner Witt are two others I really like, though Witt is rumored to be un-signable. Oh, and I'd take Bitsko over any of them. I just don't think he'll be there at 30.

[Greg Pappas]

As I've brought up before, I love Blaze Jordan's upside and would be very happy to get him. His stock dropped after a so-so showing against tougher pitching this past summer, but high upside HS'ers always intrigue me.

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Big Mac said:

Latest mock from Keith Law: https://theathletic.com/1841204/2020/05/28/keith-laws-2020-mlb-mock-draft-first-round-projection-2-0/

Has the O's taking Martin but repeats the underslot rumors only instead says he has heard that guy could be Heston Kjerstad.  Say's that he has heard a few times they won't take a pitcher.

Kjerstad at 2 would be a big disappointment to me, under-slot strategy or not. If not Tork, Martin or even Lacy, I'll just shake my head and wait to see who else we get.

[Big Mac]

12 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Kjerstad at 2 would be a big disappointment to me, under-slot strategy or not. If not Tork, Martin or even Lacy, I'll just shake my head and wait to see who else we get.

I don't like the idea of just deciding not to take a pitcher.  Maybe it is because they rank some of the underslot guys higher, but if the strategy is just not take a pitcher generally I think it's unwise.