Who will represent us in the All-Star Game?

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He had a good first half.  He might have been the most worthy when teams were selected, if not it was a near thing.

Ah, the dangers of giving an All Star selection to someone based on a hot streak.  Wigginton had a 1.000 OPS as late as mid-May, but by the All Star game it was down to .768.  Also, his fielding had been suspect since 1998.

[Greg Pappas]

Means.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Would be interested to hear more here.  Not challenging your conclusion, just interested to hear how you got there.

I'm honestly not sure I can articulate a supportable reason, lol. I've always been skeptical of defensive metrics; specifically their importance in WAR. The catching data in particular didn't make sense to me (in magnitude, particularly with framing) and anecdotally I didn't understand some of the outfield metrics. The Orioles outfielders, in particular, didn't seem to mesh with my eyeball test.

Hitting is very different. The statistics there are, IMO, very very strong. 

My theory is that defensive metrics are almost like football metrics (pro football focus data is frequently trash), being that there's just a lot of context that the metrics people don't understand. That doesn't mean they're necessarily wrong from a data perspective, by the way, but I'm not sure they can really account for the context to appropriately value a player. I'm referring to the unknown information that players do or don't have at their disposal. Some of this first step stuff in the other thread is a good example of improvements, but pitching matters, communication matters, scouting, etc. 

I do think the data is good at differentiating players, by the way. I'm just not sure that the spectrum of values is as immense as it can seem. Circling back to Mancini, I'm not sure where the cutoff exactly is, but I'd rather have a .900 OPS 1B/DH than an above average .775 RFer, for example, but I don't get the feeling that WAR would agree.

(I tried)

[Curse of the Bamdino]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Meh. A warm body in an Oriole uniform. Means is the feel good story so he gets my vote, but it doesn’t matter.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Mancini in the HR Contest, though.

Renato might have a better shot at that as it stands now. Trey could just as easily go on a long-ball tear, though, and put himself right in the running for it.

Anyway, while Means has been decent, and Severino has been a nice surprise thus far, it has to be Trey.

[Philip]

14 minutes ago, Curse of the Bamdino said:

Renato might have a better shot at that as it stands now. Trey could just as easily go on a long-ball tear, though, and put himself right in the running for it.

Anyway, while Means has been decent, and Severino has been a nice surprise thus far, it has to be Trey.

Someone mentioned that overall it depends on whether Cora needs a pitcher or a position player, But the home run derby will allow someone to participate who isn’t on the players roster, at least I think that’s how it goes isn’t it?

Trey is a great story by himself: I think he was drafted number 249th, and how triple-digit draft picks ever get inside the stadium without buying a ticket? But I’d rather it be Means.

[atomic]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I wouldn't be shocked if, just by virtue of roster construction, Cora picked Means. However, absent that, it will be our most well-known and performing player. 

BTW, I want to go on record as saying that WAR undersells bats like Mancini's by overvaluing/misvaluing defense. 

I tend to think the opposite.  I think they undervalue how badly Mancini's defense has hurt the team.  They don't take into account all the extra pitches pitchers have to throw because of him.  

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, Aglets said:

I know there is a little campaign going to try and elect Trey, but that seems a bit unlikely to work to me.  I think our selection will be picked by the manager.

So who will it be?

Top players currently by WAR:

1. Means - 2.3

2. Bundy - 1.2

3. Cashner - 1.1

4. Severino - 1.1

5. Fry - 1.0

I’m sorry but I don’t believe any players on this team deserves to be an All Star. 

[Aglets]

23 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I’m sorry but I don’t believe any players on this team deserves to be an All Star. 

You are certainly welcome to believe that.  I'll note that Johns Means currently has the 8th highest WAR out of all American League starters so that at least makes him worthy of consideration imo.

I'll note that there is probably at least 98% chance that we do have an All Star Representative however.  This thread was just trying to start a convo about who it will be.

[GuidoSarducci]

38 minutes ago, atomic said:

I tend to think the opposite.  I think they undervalue how badly Mancini's defense has hurt the team.  They don't take into account all the extra pitches pitchers have to throw because of him.  

What I don't quite get with WAR is the positional adjustment.     I don't get why they don't just hold every player to the same standard.   If my team consists of a bunch of gold gloves, but I get put at 1B / RF or even DH because I happen to the "worst fielder" on the team, there shouldn't be an arbtirary "you get -0.5 WAR because of positional scarcity".  I can only deal with the plays that come my way, and thats what I should be judged on. 

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

What I don't quite get with WAR is the positional adjustment.     I don't get why they don't just hold every player to the same standard.   If my team consists of a bunch of gold gloves, but I get put at 1B / RF or even DH because I happen to the "worst fielder" on the team, there shouldn't be an arbtirary "you get -0.5 WAR because of positional scarcity".  I can only deal with the plays that come my way, and thats what I should be judged on. 

Don't look at defensive WAR stat as it doesn't make any sense and is not really what is used in the final calculation of WAR.  They should help you tell if the player is above average or below average for position. 

Look at these:

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn

Rdrs/yr -- BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Aglets said:

You are certainly welcome to believe that.  I'll note that Johns Means currently has the 8th highest WAR out of all American League starters so that at least makes him worthy of consideration imo.

I'll note that there is probably at least 98% chance that we do have an All Star Representative however.  This thread was just trying to start a convo about who it will be.

Isn’t there a 100% chance?    I thought every team had to have one player.    

I think it’s probably true that no Oriole would be on the team if they were constructing the roster on merit.    But neither Means nor Mancini would be embarrassing as a selection right now.  

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

What I don't quite get with WAR is the positional adjustment.     I don't get why they don't just hold every player to the same standard.   If my team consists of a bunch of gold gloves, but I get put at 1B / RF or even DH because I happen to the "worst fielder" on the team, there shouldn't be an arbtirary "you get -0.5 WAR because of positional scarcity".  I can only deal with the plays that come my way, and thats what I should be judged on. 

You can get that by looking at Rfield.    That tells you runs saved compared to an average player at the position.

People need to understand that the positional adjustment really exists for offensive reasons.    It’s easier to find an .800 OPS 1B than an .800 OPS SS.    You wouldn’t say that an .800 OPS 1B who is average defensively is as valuable as an .800 OPS SS who is average defensively.     So there has to be a positional adjustment or WAR doesn’t work.    

[Dipper9]

Have we ever had a season where our marketing department picked only one member of the team to promote for the All Star Game?  Normally we get the "Vote Orange" type stuff.  I'd be a little disrespected if I was some of the other Birds who should at least be considered.  

[Philip]

34 minutes ago, Aglets said:

You are certainly welcome to believe that.  I'll note that Johns Means currently has the 8th highest WAR out of all American League starters so that at least makes him worthy of consideration imo.

I'll note that there is probably at least 98% chance that we do have an All Star Representative however.  This thread was just trying to start a convo about who it will be.

Every team gets one representative. Therefore, there is a 100% chance that we will have a representative. With that in mind, I don’t really care who goes but my personal preference, gun to my head, is I would like to send the guy who has come the farthest in order to make a positive contribution to the team, and that, right now, is John Means.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

Have we ever had a season where our marketing department picked only one member of the team to promote for the All Star Game?  Normally we get the "Vote Orange" type stuff.  I'd be a little disrespected if I was some of the other Birds who should at least be considered.  

I thought the same thing.  Why is Mancini the chosen one?  I think Means would be the guy so far.  He could explode but he looks pretty solid. If he has another month like he has been doing he surely is the All-star for the team.