Low hanging fruit

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 1/18/2020 at 10:25 AM, Philip said:

I had high hopes for improved defense last season, but the defense remained awful.

I hope the defense will be better this year but it remains to be seen. Sisco is a waste. I have no faith in his suddenly turning into an asset on either defense or offense. I’m not much more hopeful about Severino but at least he’s a real catcher.

I agree that the pitching will be awful, but it will be better as we bring up Akin/Etc, so pitching and defense are indeed a reason for hope.

Would I like him to do more with the stick than what he's shown at the MLB level to this point? Yes.

That said, it's worth noting that his .729 OPS in 2019 was above the MLB-wide OPS for the catcher position (.717). Put another way, he ranked #31 of the 68 catchers with at least 100 PA (for reference, Severino was #27). While he will have to do better than that to provide positive value because of his glove, it puts in perspective how rare great hitting is at the position.

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Would I like him to do more with the stick than what he's shown at the MLB level to this point? Yes.

That said, it's worth noting that his .729 OPS in 2019 was above the MLB-wide OPS for the catcher position (.717). Put another way, he ranked #31 of the 68 catchers with at least 100 PA (for reference, Severino was #27). While he will have to do better than that to provide positive value because of his glove, it puts in perspective how rare great hitting is at the position.

He hits better than he catches, but at the moment he’s terrible at both. The fact that most catchers don’t hit very well isn’t really a defense. He’s not really a catcher at all: his problems are so elementary one wonders how he got this far at the position. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

He hits better than he catches, but at the moment he’s terrible at both. The fact that most catchers don’t hit very well isn’t really a defense. He’s not really a catcher at all: his problems are so elementary one wonders how he got this far at the position. 

His OPS+ last season was 94. Not really good, but certainly not "terrible." And how he hits relative to the position as a whole is incredibly relevant... 

[Philip]

42 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

His OPS+ last season was 94. Not really good, but certainly not "terrible." And how he hits relative to the position as a whole is incredibly relevant... 

I understand, but the point is that if you’re going to be as bad on defense as he is, you have to be otherworldly on offense to make up for it.

his K rate is down but still terrible.

He may improve, and there’s no reason not to let him try, but he’d have to improve a whole lot in order to compensate for his defense.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Like I said last year right around this same time.  It is really hard to lose that many games.  Especially when you have other teams actively tanking.

I have confidence we can tank better than any team out there. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I have confidence we can tank better than any team out there. 

Tigers out did them last year.

[tntoriole]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tigers out did them last year.

Yes, but we have out performed them in the offseason getting rid of Villar and Bundy. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

I understand, but the point is that if you’re going to be as bad on defense as he is, you have to be otherworldly on offense to make up for it.

his K rate is down but still terrible.

He may improve, and there’s no reason not to let him try, but he’d have to improve a whole lot in order to compensate for his defense.

I think “otherworldly” is a huge overstatement of what he’d need to be offensively to compensate for his defense.      Last year he was worth 0.1 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR, so basically replacement level.   He was 48th of 68 catchers who had at least 100 plate appearances in fWAR, so that places him solidly in the middle of second string catchers in overall value.    With a decent improvement in his offense, he’d be above average overall for a backup catcher.     Somewhere between .750-.775 OPS would take him off the cusp, IMO.   I don’t consider that “otherworldly.”

By the way, I’m using WAR because it’s available, but I don’t completely trust it for catchers.    

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think “otherworldly” is a huge overstatement of what he’d need to be offensively to compensate for his defense.      Last year he was worth 0.1 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR, so basically replacement level.   He was 48th of 68 catchers who had at least 100 plate appearances in fWAR, so that places him solidly in the middle of second string catchers in overall value.    With a decent improvement in his offense, he’d be above average overall for a backup catcher.     Somewhere between .750-.775 OPS would take him off the cusp, IMO.   I don’t consider that “otherworldly.”

By the way, I’m using WAR because it’s available, but I don’t completely trust it for catchers.    

His defense by the eye test was awful. I agree that Defense stats aren’t as useful for catching as we’d like, but by the eye test it sure was bad. His WRC was 96, which I don’t understand given how bad his hitting was. 

As I said there’s no reason not to let him try to improve, but improve he must in order to be playable. I’d prefer Severino, and it seems he’s going to get most of the playing time anyway.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

His defense by the eye test was awful. I agree that Defense stats aren’t as useful for catching as we’d like, but by the eye test it sure was bad. His WRC was 96, which I don’t understand given how bad his hitting was. 

As I said there’s no reason not to let him try to improve, but improve he must in order to be playable. I’d prefer Severino, and it seems he’s going to get most of the playing time anyway.

I think Severino will continue to play more so long as the two players remain similar offensively (Severino hit .249/.321/.420 while Sisco hit .210/.333/.395).   Both players hit poorly after the all star break, especially Sisco.    Both still have a lot to prove on both sides of the ball.    

[Philip]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Severino will continue to play more so long as the two players remain similar offensively (Severino hit .249/.321/.420 while Sisco hit .210/.333/.395).   Both players hit poorly after the all star break, especially Sisco.    Both still have a lot to prove on both sides of the ball.    

Yes I agree. And neither will ever be part of a .500 roster unless drastic improvement is seen.

Severino has a better chance to earn a legit backup spot. He seems to have better instincts and fundamentals. But we’ll see how things turn out.

[BohKnowsBmore]

56 minutes ago, Philip said:

His defense by the eye test was awful. I agree that Defense stats aren’t as useful for catching as we’d like, but by the eye test it sure was bad. His WRC was 96, which I don’t understand given how bad his hitting was. 

As I said there’s no reason not to let him try to improve, but improve he must in order to be playable. I’d prefer Severino, and it seems he’s going to get most of the playing time anyway.

I think the reason you don’t understand it is because his hitting wasn’t as bad as you make it out to be.  

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes I agree. And neither will ever be part of a .500 roster unless drastic improvement is seen.

Severino has a better chance to earn a legit backup spot. He seems to have better instincts and fundamentals. But we’ll see how things turn out.

Worse catchers have been part of winning teams.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think the reason you don’t understand it is because his hitting wasn’t as bad as you make it out to be.  

I don’t think we know exactly what Sisco is as a hitter.    In 2018 he had a .557 OPS.   Then last year, he had a 1.061 OPS in 60 PA before the all star break, but .542 in 107 PA after the all star break.    His overall .729 last year was decent, but that trend line sure wasn’t good.    We’ll see what happens in 2020.    

[BohKnowsBmore]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we know exactly what Sisco is as a hitter.    In 2018 he had a .557 OPS.   Then last year, he had a 1.061 OPS in 60 PA before the all star break, but .542 in 107 PA after the all star break.    His overall .729 last year was decent, but that trend line sure wasn’t good.    We’ll see what happens in 2020.    

Completely agree with your point here. I was responding specifically to the surprise at a 96 WRC, specifically that his total season numbers weren’t as putrid as that poster is portraying them relative to league and position.