It's time for the OH to turn the page

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Well if they were trusted to actually invest the money saving $15M next year on an oft injured pitcher isn’t the worst thing. 

The better play is to eat some money to get better prospects. 

Agreed.  It’s also good to have him around.  When he came here, it was noted how much of a leader he is, works with the younger players, etc..that has value, especially with the roster configuration the Os are likely to have.

I wouldn’t dump him.   Certainly not against trading him and yes, they should eat money to get better players but if the choice is pay him and keep him vs dump him for salary relief, I’m keeping him.

[OFFNY]

On 8/11/2020 at 10:07 AM, Tony-OH said:

 

Plus, what team is really going to go all in on this season with the expanded playoffs and craziness. Is anyone going to be crowing about being the 2020 "World Champions?"

 

 

 

On 8/11/2020 at 10:19 AM, Frobby said:

 

Oh, I’d take it. I don’t hear a lot of Washington football fans who discount their 1983 Super Bowl title despite the 9 game regular season and expanded playoff format.   

But I don’t see us getting very far, regardless of the format. I’d be delighted to be wrong.   

 

o

 

In addition to the 1982-season Super Bowl title, the Redskins won another one 5 years later in 1987 ........ which was also a strike-shortened season in which 3 of the 15 games that were played were done so using mostly replacement players. 

4 years after that in 1991, the Washingtonians won yet another Super Bowl ........ this time having nothing to do with a strike.

 

o

[HowAboutThat]

11 minutes ago, owknows said:

Interestingly, I disagree with your fundamental premise, but agree with your conclusion.

I think we are reaching the point where we can say with some level of confidence that more than luck is involved here. At least for some of these players. Between the number of games, and some notable difference in approach, confidence, and even the fight in them, it's becoming clear that not all of these guys are the same players they were last year. And you wouldn't necessarily expect them to be. You'd expect some development out of some younger and journeyman ballplayers. We just happen to be comprised of mostly younger and journeymen ballplayers.

That said, your suggestion that there is no logical reason to keep a guy down on the farm if he is ready for at least an audition in the Bigs.
and that Akin-Kremer-Lowther-Baumann might be better than some of what we are throwing out there is something I strongly agree with.

I think the real question in my mind, is whether we've passed the point in the rebuild where our primary question is "what can we trade away?"

And perhaps can start asking "did our strategy of picking guys off the scrap heap and developing some of our own position players pay enough dividends that we can think now about what to add to the ML club... instead of what to subtract from it?"

Not really sure we're there yet...  but just being able to consider the possibility is progress.

 

I certainly agree with that. And I agree with your comment that some of the guys are showing genuine improvement. However, even if the improvement is genuine and lasting, it is not happening to enough people for us to leap from “Top-five draft pick” to “legitimate contender.“

Ruiz was the recipient of many comments like, “he’s not a long-term contributor” but he may be, after all. Alberto, too. But that’s two guys. Our left field is a disaster. Our CF hasn’t hit this season(Im a big believer in Hays, but he hasn’t gotten going yet) right field is ok. Davis is a black hole(and yet he’s out there every day, not bunting against the shift because “that’s not my game” whatever the hell that means. And Hyde is OK with that, it seems.)

Attitude is unquantifiable, but very meaningful. One of my friends told me long ago, “we make our own luck“ and confidence without arrogance can indeed create luck, But note that I said “Can”

This Team is better and we can all celebrate. But it remains to be seen whether we are “good.”

But the real goal of this maelstrom of a season should be giving our prospects meaningful playing time, and that’s not happening, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason for that.

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t know why you think Cobb is such a strong bet to be dealt. He is owed $15M next year. It would depend on the team but he is a lock to start a game in a best of 3 series for a contender? 

What is that worth to a team? 

Read what I said.  The team needs to play .570 ball through  Aug  31 to keep Cobb.  If they do and continue to play well they will make they playoffs and Cobb will start in the best of 3 series. And if they play that well then they may go deeper in the playoffs.

If they don't play .570  through Aug 31, then Elias is faced with a .500 team or worse that  may not make the playoffs and if they do will probably not go deep in the playoffs.   With that choice I think Elias will probably trade Cobb because he will be worth more through two years of playoffs to some other  team and bring back the best return..    

Elias eyes are  on the future.  I think he is will to embrace the improvement that is being made this year if it enough to field a truly competitive team in the playoffs.   But if not he is willing to move forward getting the most he can for Cobb.   

JMO

[HowAboutThat]

37 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

In addition to the 1982-season Super Bowl title, the Redskins won another one 5 years later in 1987 ........ which was also a strike-shortened season in which 3 of the 15 games that were played were done so using mostly replacement players. 

4 years after that in 1991, the Washingtonians won yet another Super Bowl ........ this time having nothing to do with a strike.

 

o

It’s all about John Riggins!

[HowAboutThat]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Read what I said.  The team needs to play .570 ball through  Aug  31 to keep Cobb.  If they do and continue to play well they will make they playoffs and Cobb will start in the best of 3 series. And if they play that well then they may go deeper in the playoffs.

If they don't play .570  through Aug 31, then Elias is faced with a .500 team or worse that  may not make the playoffs and if they do will probably not go deep in the playoffs.   With that choice I think Elias will probably trade Cobb because he will be worth more through two years of playoffs to some other  team and bring back the best return..    

Elias eyes are  on the future.  I think he is will to embrace the improvement that is being made this year if it enough to field a truly competitive team in the playoffs.   But if not he is willing to move forward getting the most he can for Cobb.   

JMO

If we miss the playoffs by one team, that means we will get the 14th pick in the draft. I have no idea whether the 14th pick will be good or not because I don’t know how deep the draft will be.
if we are the 16th seed, and are eliminated immediately, we will get the 15th pick in the draft I doubt that there is a meaningful difference between those two spots, but as far as I’m concerned the pleasure of success would be worth one place in the draft order.

So it seems to me that the dilemma is whether we are going to blow everything up in order to ensure a top-five choice? Do nothing and perhaps end up with 11 to 13, or do something and end up with perhaps 18 to 20?

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

If we miss the playoffs by one team, that means we will get the 14th pick in the draft. I have no idea whether the 14th pick will be good or not because I don’t know how deep the draft will be.
if we are the 16th seed, and are eliminated immediately, we will get the 15th pick in the draft I doubt that there is a meaningful difference between those two spots, but as far as I’m concerned the pleasure of success would be worth one place in the draft order.

So it seems to me that the dilemma is whether we are going to blow everything up in order to ensure a top-five choice? Do nothing and perhaps end up with 11 to 13, or do something and end up with perhaps 18 to 20?

I remain unconvinced that the draft order will be based solely (or even mostly) on the 2020 standings.

The March agreement gave the commisioners office the right to modify the 2021 draft order. No updates since then, but i can't see it being based on a 60-game season when not every team even plays 60 games.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I remain unconvinced that the draft order will be based solely (or even mostly) on the 2020 standings.

I think that the more games get played the more likely it becomes.

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

I remain unconvinced that the draft order will be based solely (or even mostly) on the 2020 standings.

That may be true, but at the moment that’s all we have to go on. however, any modification would have to start with last year‘s record, so that would probably benefit us even if we are more successful than expected this time.

so even if we do well, we could reasonably expect a top 10 pick.

I think it is rather humorous that the people over in Detroit are having the exact same discussion regarding the Tigers. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if both teams made the playoffs?

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that the more games get played the more likely it becomes.

Seems to me a logical way to do it would be to just base it on combined 2019-2020 winning percentage.   So the larger sample size season would mostly prevail but a team that made a significant change in either direction this year would likely be bumped up or down a few spots accordingly.    If we were to manage a .500ish season we would find ourselves maybe passing KC and one or two other teams and picking 5th or 6th in such a scenario.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Seems to me a logical way to do it would be to just base it on combined 2019-2020 winning percentage.   So the larger sample size season would mostly prevail but a team that made a significant change in either direction this year would likely be bumped up or down a few spots accordingly.    If we were to manage a .500ish season we would find ourselves maybe passing KC and one or two other teams and picking 5th or 6th in such a scenario.

I agree but I'm not convinced they are going to do the logical thing.

[Spy Fox]

It's worth pointing out if it hasn't been said yet: the 2019 Orioles went 11-8 from July 3 - July 27 and lost 108 games. The 2018 Orioles—and man is it hard to find any successful stretch from that team— went 9-7 from May 9 to May 25 and lost 115 games. 

The worst teams in baseball history can still post a winning record for a few weeks. The starting pitching on this team is still bottom of the barrel. 

I'm excited about the results so far, but less because of the record and more because the likes of Alberto, Nunez, Santander, & Means are showing that they probably aren't 1-year wonders as major league regulars. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

The worst teams in baseball history can still post a winning record for a few weeks. The starting pitching on this team is still bottom of the barrel. 

I think Cobb and Means are legit mid-rotation starters and Milone is a legit number 5 starter. Wojo may well be a legit number 5 starter as well. Obviously that isn't enough in a normal year, but it could be enough to eke in to a 16-team playoff in 60 games.

[beantownrefugee]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I'm excited about the results so far, but less because of the record and more because the likes of Alberto, Nunez, Santander, & Means are showing that they probably aren't 1-year wonders as major league regulars. 

I'm excited that the Orioles are NOT the team dropping infield pops, allowing a single to become an inside the park home run, and giving up tons of passed balls.

By August 31, if every game on the schedule is played (a big "if"), 35 out of 60 games would be played.  That should be enough to venture an educated guess of how the remainder might pan out.  I'm in the camp that can't-miss trade offers will not be coming. No guarantee this MLB season finishes, amplified by no agreement that the players will be in a bubble for the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, beantownrefugee said:

I'm excited that the Orioles are NOT the team dropping infield pops, allowing a single to become an inside the park home run, and giving up tons of passed balls.

By August 31, if every game on the schedule is played (a big "if"), 35 out of 60 games would be played.  That should be enough to venture an educated guess of how the remainder might pan out.  I'm in the camp that can't-miss trade offers will not be coming. No guarantee this MLB season finishes, amplified by no agreement that the players will be in a bubble for the playoffs.

And the knowledge that at least three teams have had players engaging in risky behavior.