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Roadmap to Contention 2020

ScGO's

By ScGO's
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Filmstudy
Filmstudy

Good to see the math approach. First step in determining if the model is reasonable is to determine if .325 can be a reasonable estimate for a team that goes 10-7 in the first 17 games.  The chan

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

I won't try to take all your hard work apart here.  I'll just say that everything we have heard and seen from Elias leads me to believe there is zero chance of Adley Rutchman making his ML debut this

canonfaz
canonfaz

The benching of Davis would be a good start to contention.

Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted

If the 2nd quarter is as fortunate as the 1st quarter, I'll hope for more of the good stuff in the second half.  2002 K-Rod only had 5.2 regular season IP before 18.2 postseason IP.

Should this end up Why Not all over again, only the first postseason series in its 3-game glory matters.

I have wondered some if the confusing to me Mountcastle must LF not 1B is because there's some consideration of going for 10000 AB with Rutschman.  Throw those two in place of Smith/Davis from tonight's lineup and budget those first 18-20 Friday/Saturday Yankees innings like Means 4, Rodriguez 3, Hall 3, Baumann 2, Cobb 2, Harvey 2, Givens 2, Wojo 2.

 

 

 

 

(A long losing streak is coming.)

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Philip said:

You’re the second person who seems to have misunderstood what I said. I said luck is better than skill, but it is much less dependable. Nobody can plan on being lucky every time. We proved that last night, but at the same time last night we saw again that being lucky is better than being skillful.
Skill is much more dependable. But, again, as we saw last night, being lucky is better. The problem is that you never know when you’re going to be lucky, and because you cannot rely on luck, you must develop your skill.
So far, we have been pretty lucky, and as moose said, being lucky is not a plan. But Moose also missed that I never suggested it was a plan, I just said that’s the way things have gone for us lately.

You said luck is ALWAYS better than skill.

And no.  No it's not.

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Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
Posted (edited)

Is it me or does the schedule look a little more doable than before the season? Navigate through this weekend OK, and then ending August is not too bad the way Boston and Toronto are playing. And then we get to end the season with BOS/TOR. 
 

It’s also really weird to scroll the schedule this season. I was into June of 2021 when I realized, oh s***, the season ends next freaking month! 

It feels like this team has made more comebacks this season than they have since 2016. every time I check the box score, we’re down in the middle innings, only to check later to see that we’ve taken the lead. 

I know that’s not likely to sustain. I think we’re likely to have the bats go really cold (almost everyone is playing above their history), but again, we are basically 13 games from the half way point. If we can manage to go near .500 through the end of this month.. 

We will continue to be right in the thick of things for one of those 16 playoff spots which is shocking and exciting. 


 

 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
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Slappy Major Leaguer

Slappy

Posted
Posted

A little luck goes a long way in a 60 game season.

I’m trying to stay realistic, but these guys are legit hitting rockets. Young teams that mature at once surprise people, and some of these games are already starting to feel like 2012 games.

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Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Slappy said:

A little luck goes a long way in a 60 game season.

I’m trying to stay realistic, but these guys are legit hitting rockets. Young teams that mature at once surprise people, and some of these games are already starting to feel like 2012 games.

The difference with 2012 is that that team took years to build with top flight talent.

I wonder if there’s a precedent in baseball for having 5ish “scrap heap” players hit at once. I’m still expecting regression from Severino, Ruiz, Alberto, Santander, Sisco etc. Hell, even John Means was scrap heap. Castro, Sulser.

Whereas 2012’s core were pretty legitimate MLB talents.

 

 

 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bubble Buddy said:

The difference with 2012 is that that team took years to build with top flight talent.

I wonder if there’s a precedent in baseball for having 5ish “scrap heap” players hit at once. I’m still expecting regression from Severino, Ruiz, Alberto, Santander, Sisco etc. Hell, even John Means was scrap heap. Castro, Sulser.

Whereas 2012’s core were pretty legitimate MLB talents.

 

 

 

"Scrap Heap Players" ..... Interesting.      The 2012 team had Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Wilson Betemit, Nate McLouth.  Texas have given up on Chris Davis after several opportunities.  And the Brewers basically given Hardy to the O's.  The starting pitching was Wei Yin Chen who had never pitched in the majors., Arrieta with a 6.20 ERA,  Minor Leaguer, signed out of Mexico Miguel Gonzalez,  Tommy Hunter is the 5.45 ERA

Lets not act like the 2012 team was expected to win or entered the season with a bunch of world beaters.

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Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

"Scrap Heap Players" ..... Interesting.      The 2012 team had Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Wilson Betemit, Nate McLouth.  Texas have given up on Chris Davis after several opportunities.  And the Brewers basically given Hardy to the O's.  The starting pitching was Wei Yin Chen who had never pitched in the majors., Arrieta with a 6.20 ERA,  Minor Leaguer, signed out of Mexico Miguel Gonzalez,  Tommy Hunter is the 5.45 ERA

Lets not act like the 2012 team was expected to win or entered the season with a bunch of world beaters.

I say “scrap heap players” affectionately. There’s probably a better term. 
 

Anyways, DD funneled all kinds of guys through the system that year, but the core group of players was comprised of guys meticulously collected from 2007-2012.

And then I think there’s a difference with the guys acquired to supplement the core. Chris Davis, Jason Hammel, JJ Hardy, Tommy Hunter, DOD, McLouth and Mark Reynolds are different than what we have this year. None of those guys had been sent down to the minors or outright released. All of them had some level of a major league track record or minor league pedigree, and they were acquired in trades. 

Plus the core of Wieters, Machado, Jones, Markakis, Hardy, Jim Johnson, etc.

What was kind of crazy about that team to me was none of the “cavalry” had hit at that point. Hammel and Chen were huge. 
 

So yes, 2012 was quite the miracle, but I feel it was pretty markedly different than this team. 
 

Still hoping for a different kind of 60 game miracle from this team though. 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
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TommyPickles Major Leaguer

TommyPickles

Posted
Posted

It’s not much use comparing 2020 to 2005, since the season and playoff format are so different.

8 team playoff vs 16 team playoff

Assuming the Os win the unfinished game against the Nats, they’ll be 10-7. If they finished the season after that with a 19-24 record, they’d be in. The bar is a lot lower than it used to be.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

It’s not much use comparing 2020 to 2005, since the season and playoff format are so different.

8 team playoff vs 16 team playoff

Assuming the Os win the unfinished game against the Nats, they’ll be 10-7. If they finished the season after that with a 19-24 record, they’d be in. The bar is a lot lower than it used to be.

this is an outlier year, and hopefully, baseball will never see another.

 

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

Posted
Posted

We wasted 4 games with the Marlins. It water under the bridge now but in a 60 game season it may come back to haunt us if this club can somehow remain competitive. The NL East does not look good right now. Still have 12 games left vs them. 

Keep in mind we play the Yankees 8 games out of about 10 starting Labor Day weekend. Toronto looks like their bats are starting to come around. Play them a bunch soon.  

They will have to play well vs Toronto to have any chance. Can’t go 3-7 vs them with all the Yankee games looming. 

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