Trezza: Here's what Orioles are eyeing at Meetings

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Trade Means....

People seem to believe a contending team pops up out of nowhere.  25 prospects take the field and 1st place is magically won.  A team is built.

In 2014,  Dallas Keuchel was in his 3rd year, and had his first good season with an ERA under 5.00.  The Astros won 72 games, and were two more 80 win seasons (1 playoff birth) from becoming a true contender and winning the WS in 2017.

If you really want a competitive Orioles team in 2023 (which is more than enough time to rebuild) why on earth would you trade John Means? 

With the caveat being that I'd be willing to trade anyone in the right deal...

I completely agree with the above post. We have to get an absolutely great offer for me to want to trade Means, and I love the Keuchel comp as it relates to our first winning team.

I think he'll age awesome with that change up. The extra velocity is icing on the cake. I don't think he'll need that as he gets older.

[LTO's]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So basically, they are looking to save money, do very little and continue to fool the fan base that rebuilding means they can’t win.

Got it.  
 

That short season spurt of competitiveness really messed with people's heads. This team could drop 100 mil in free agency and not sniff the Yankees and Rays in a 162 game season. 

[LookinUp]

26 minutes ago, LTO's said:

That short season spurt of competitiveness really messed with people's heads. This team could drop 100 mil in free agency and not sniff the Yankees and Rays in a 162 game season. 

I think he's arguing that we should spend 20-30 million now for a team that is more competitive (e.g., 70-80 wins) and might have some role in helping to build a contender (e.g., trading those players later, contributors on a contending team).

[LTO's]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I think he's arguing that we should spend 20-30 million now for a team that is more competitive (e.g., 70-80 wins) and might have some role in helping to build a contender (e.g., trading those players later, contributors on a contending team).

1. I don't think dropping 20-30 million would get them to above 70 wins in the first place. 

2. It's a risk that any low to mid-tier FA would play well enough to get anything meaningful in a trade. 

3. The previous administration's Orioles are a prime example that throwing money around in this way can have terrible consequences. Dropped substantial money on Cobb, Davis and Trumbo and the team not only got worse, but they aren't going to end being able to trade any of them. Just a total waste.

It's just weird to think back on the mood of this board at each stage of this team's past 4 years to where some are now. It was seemingly a very popular opinion that the Os should've traded Manny, Schoop and Britton and Gausman in 2017 and start a rebuild early because a competitive 2018 was unlikely. They didn't do that, gave Cobb a bad deal and then lost 120 games with the worst farm system in baseball. Elias begins the process that obviously was needed in 2017 and people are apoplectic that they aren't trying to sign mid-tier players in an attempt to win 75 games. 

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, LTO's said:

1. I don't think dropping 20-30 million would get them to above 70 wins in the first place. 

2. It's a risk that any low to mid-tier FA would play well enough to get anything meaningful in a trade. 

3. The previous administration's Orioles are a prime example that throwing money around in this way can have terrible consequences. Dropped substantial money on Cobb, Davis and Trumbo and the team not only got worse, but they aren't going to end being able to trade any of them. Just a total waste.

It's just weird to think back on the mood of this board at each stage of this team's past 4 years to where some are now. It was seemingly a very popular opinion that the Os should've traded Manny, Schoop and Britton and Gausman in 2017 and start a rebuild early because a competitive 2018 was unlikely. They didn't do that, gave Cobb a bad deal and then lost 120 games with the worst farm system in baseball. Elias begins the process that obviously was needed in 2017 and people are apoplectic that they aren't trying to sign mid-tier players in an attempt to win 75 games. 

I'll keep going back to SG's example of the Cozart deal. He's right that we could have built our farm by taking on cash in a trade. That's an example that's hard to argue with except in terms of ROI.

Is there a FA that's "worth it" for this team? I'd argue yes. There are guys that would make us competitive. Not against the Yankees and Rays, but certainly in terms of being a decent team that fans want to watch. 

Does spending that money take away from our future ability to spend? SG says no. I think that's where I disagree, knowing there's a lot of unknown in there.

[Just Regular]

I have DELUSIONS of 2021 competitiveness, involving the Week 2 deployment of Adley, Yusniel and the Big 3 Pitchers, with a couple few of them hitting the ground running (and Jurickson Profar, of course).   We'll never know exactly how good Bowie pitch metrics were this summer, but after Minor League opening day we will get to see if Baumann, Rodriguez and Hall can flat out embarrass upper minors hitters (continue that, in Baumann's case).

And then its just dissembling, or maybe not wanting to let Xander/Gleyber/Vlad see those pitches for real until '22.

[murph]

In his Athletic article today, Connolly lightly suggests Simmons for SS.   Looks like his defense is slipping a bit, but still could be a good get for us if the market doesn't bare out for him.    Very unlikely I am sure.

https://theathletic.com/2248681/2020/12/09/orioles-hot-stove-freeze-alex-cobb/?source=dailyemail

If an Iglesias 2.0 is still standing in a month or two — Freddy Galvis, maybe Andrelton Simmons in a depressed market — well, the Orioles would fish in that pool if possible. Even on a pact beyond a standard, one-year term? Maybe, but not likely.

[fitzi22]

Oh and by the way this “Draft League” idea seems kinda dumb.  It’s kinda like an Arizona fall league but for guys who aren’t drafted yet.  I give it a coin flip that it will succeed.  That being said I’m sure they are thrilled the #1 attendance Carolina League team will be part of it, maybe even anchor it.

[murph]

Didn't want to start another Davis thread, so I will put this here.  We can all rest easy that a power hitting first basement will not be needed for 2021! 

https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/player/18768/chris-davis

Chris Davis (knee) said Wednesday that he is "100 percent committed" to being ready for the start of spring training.

Davis appeared in only 16 total games this past season for the Orioles due to lingering patellar tendinitis in his left knee and batted just .115/.164/.173 when healthy. He has a .550 OPS in 929 plate appearances since the beginning of 2018. The veteran first baseman is still owed $46 million on a contract that runs through 2022.

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, LTO's said:

That short season spurt of competitiveness really messed with people's heads. This team could drop 100 mil in free agency and not sniff the Yankees and Rays in a 162 game season. 

That’s not really the point.

[LTO's]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not really the point.

What's the point? Pretty much any way you slice it you are arguing that the Os should just spend money for the sake of spending money. It's also early December. Pretty much no one is making moves yet. They very well could sign a replacement for Iglesias who ends up being even better than him. He's already 1-0 when it comes to upgrading the SS position from the year before. Personally, and this is an unpopular decision now, I would rather watch the younger guys in our system get playing time than a one year FA. Iglesias was fun to watch last year but I was personally more interested in Santander, Mountcastle, Hays, Akin, Kremer, Scott and Harvey. 

[Philip]

I did not find this article to be revealing or insightful in the slightest, he didn’t say anything we haven’t been saying here since the end of the season.

[Philip]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So basically, they are looking to save money, do very little and continue to fool the fan base that rebuilding means they can’t win.

Got it.  
 

Define “win?”

I’m not being contentious, I’m asking what you would consider a successful season.

I think that Mike would like to win as many games as possible without interrupting his plan., And he’s not going to make any trades or moves that will mean the difference between 65 wins and 75 wins, Because in doing so it will jeopardize our ability to get to between 85 and 90 in ‘22.

That’s what I think Mike is thinking. I personally would like to see another 10 or 12 game improvement, and I think we can see that without jeopardizing the future.

What would you like to see?

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

Define “win?”

I’m not being contentious, I’m asking what you would consider a successful season.

I think that Mike would like to win as many games as possible without interrupting his plan., And he’s not going to make any trades or moves that will mean the difference between 65 wins and 75 wins, Because in doing so it will jeopardize our ability to get to between 85 and 90 in ‘22.

That’s what I think Mike is thinking. I personally would like to see another 10 or 12 game improvement, and I think we can see that without jeopardizing the future.

What would you like to see?

I think it takes building a farm system and picking your spots in free agency. The Orioles really haven’t had a good farm system, I mean from top to bottom since the 70s. I’m fine with being patient ...short cuts lead to more of the same.

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'll keep going back to SG's example of the Cozart deal. He's right that we could have built our farm by taking on cash in a trade. That's an example that's hard to argue with except in terms of ROI.

Is there a FA that's "worth it" for this team? I'd argue yes. There are guys that would make us competitive. Not against the Yankees and Rays, but certainly in terms of being a decent team that fans want to watch. 

Does spending that money take away from our future ability to spend? SG says no. I think that's where I disagree, knowing there's a lot of unknown in there.

I can see your point, I just disagree, in general terms in the Baltimore market. Spending money on a veteran player like Iglesias makes sense to shore up the defense for your young pitching and to provide an example/mentor for younger players, especially the younger Latin players. Spending a small amount of money on a veteran starter, or a reliever for that matter, helps provide an example for the daily routines and such for the younger pitchers. It also eats innings to stabilize things and perhaps you can build some value for later trades of that veteran, as they did with Milone. These were astute value-based low cost acquisitions that enabled them to properly develop young players at the major league level more efficiently. It also enabled them to see others perform and see what they have in those players to best determine current and future values. They were able to put many players in a position to be successful, which is what development should be about. If they did not have the Davis and Cobb contracts, this might be a consideration to me. But the Davis contract, in particular, is an albatross of the highest order.

I think they can find very talented players that are low cost and help them improve to the point that some may become major league players. Look at all of the former waiver claims and low cost acquisitions that have come through in the last year. Many of the players we have acquired were once high draft picks or expensive international signings. Tanking sucks for most fans, but it is a proven strategy to build up a talent base fairly quickly. 

The Orioles have diverted much of their budget to improving the infrastructure of the organization. Whether it be capital improvements in structures and facilities, technological advances, more staff and coaches in the development pipeline, or international players and development, they have had much needed improvements in all of those areas thanks to the diversion of money they had been spending on the major league team in an ill-advised era from 2016-2018.

Being a "decent team' means mediocre and caught in between. Drafting consistently around 15-25 brings you a lot less talent in the rule 4 draft. We can make up for that in the international market, but we are not there yet. It is hard to root for a mediocre team, I'm personally sick of that, "Yay, we are the third or fourth best team in the AL East." That sucks!

I think Elias is doing a great job! He is transparent for a GM. I find that refreshing. It is always about the money, sure. Owners are in the business to make money. And I believe they will spend responsibly when the team is ready to contend.