How long do the O’s need to be bad

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm quite frankly tired of people whining and complaining about the competition we face.  It's not going to change anything.  

Tampa has figured it out, why haven't we been able to?  They're able to develop good pitching and yet they have to play with a weighted schedule against OHMIGOSH the Yankees and Sox!  

Even if you what you say is true, the Sox, Yanks, Jays and Rays all have to pitch in the hardest environment in the league.  And yet, they're able to have good pitching and we're not.  

 

I don't know why this seems to make you so upset.  I'm not whining.  I'm not complaining.  I'm not making excuses.  In case you hadn't noticed, the O's failures to develop pitching are not my failures.  I have nothing to apologize or make excuses about.

I am stating reality.  And it is a reality that the O's better be prepared to deal with.

[ScGO's]

20 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't know why this seems to make you so upset.  I'm not whining.  I'm not complaining.  I'm not making excuses.  In case you hadn't noticed, the O's failures to develop pitching are not my failures.  I have nothing to apologize or make excuses about.

I am stating reality.  And it is a reality that the O's better be prepared to deal with.

The O's have failed to develop pitchers over the last two decades, no doubt.  But Elias hasn't failed to develop pitchers yet as he is only in year 3 of implementing his system.  Let's revisit this in 2 years.  Maybe even longer considering the recent investments in the Latin America probably needing about 6 years to materialize. 

[Pickles]

Just now, ScGO's said:

The O's have failed to develop pitchers over the last two decades, no doubt.  But Elias hasn't failed to develop pitchers yet as he is only in year 3 of implementing his system.  Let's revisit this in 2 years.  Maybe even longer considering the recent investments in the Latin America probably needing about 6 years to materialize. 

I think we all have to be in a wait and see mode regarding Elias, which was essentially my point.

I want to see pitchers come up from the MiL level and be ready to compete at the ML level.  I want to see smoother more successful transitions.

We're seeing some of the young arms come up now.  Big tests will be with Hall and Rodriguez.  We'll going to start to get more feedback pretty soon.

[ScGO's]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think we all have to be in a wait and see mode regarding Elias, which was essentially my point.

I want to see pitchers come up from the MiL level and be ready to compete at the ML level.  I want to see smoother more successful transitions.

We're seeing some of the young arms come up now.  Big tests will be with Hall and Rodriguez.  We'll going to start to get more feedback pretty soon.

I'd like to see them draft a college pitcher this year.  If Hall and Rodriguez are real, it would be nice to get a top college arm right in the mix too.  Baumann, Wells, Lowther, Akin, Kremer, etc are interesting, but were not going to hit on them all.

[Pickles]

50 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I'd like to see them draft a college pitcher this year.  If Hall and Rodriguez are real, it would be nice to get a top college arm right in the mix too.  Baumann, Wells, Lowther, Akin, Kremer, etc are interesting, but were not going to hit on them all.

Drafting some college stud won't fix the development issues any more than drafting Gausmann did.

We get to see the tip of the iceberg for the most part of that development.  But 7/8ths of it is hidden from our view, so I don't think anyone has anything particularly enlightening to say on the struggles of prior regimes and the reported improvements of this one.

We're going to have the judge the vine by its fruits.

And the biggest thing I want to see is: Young pitchers getting better at the ML level through experience.

That sounds almost inevitable to people.  It isn't.

Arrieta got worse here every single year.  We saw what happened with Matusz.  Tillman was up and down for years.  Britton continually declined while in the rotation.  And that's just the latest cavalry.

If young pitchers come up and struggle, I can live with that.  Hell, I expect that.  But if whole groups of them keep getting worse, then it's safe to say we haven't solved the issue.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

I don't know why this seems to make you so upset.  I'm not whining.  I'm not complaining.  I'm not making excuses.  In case you hadn't noticed, the O's failures to develop pitching are not my failures.  I have nothing to apologize or make excuses about.

I am stating reality.  And it is a reality that the O's better be prepared to deal with.

I'm not upset.  But you are making excuses for the Orioles.   

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not upset.  But you are making excuses for the Orioles.   

If making excuses equals accurately describing reality, then sure.

[sportsfan8703]

Elias. 
 

We have a chance to be 2-3 games better than what we are right now if he was actually managing the roster to put us in the best chance to win. 
 

Hyde had to keep throwing Armstrong out there because Lakins/Sulser weren’t on the team because we’re trying to keep two rule 5s and Leblanc. That’s cost us. The three man bench severely limits us in close games, especially in Extra Innings. That’s cost us. 
 

162 is a long season to keep having to endure tanking.  

 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias. 
 

We have a chance to be 2-3 games better than what we are right now if he was actually managing the roster to put us in the best chance to win. 
 

Hyde had to keep throwing Armstrong out there because Lakins/Sulser weren’t on the team because we’re trying to keep two rule 5s and Leblanc. That’s cost us. The three man bench severely limits us in close games, especially in Extra Innings. That’s cost us. 
 

162 is a long season to keep having to endure tanking.  

 

I don't consider trying to keep as many pitchers as possible for a long season tanking. There are bound to be injuries.

[Camden_yardbird]

On 4/17/2021 at 5:01 PM, Pickles said:

If making excuses equals accurately describing reality, then sure.

A lot of people think "we are rebuilding" can cover a lot of flaws in an organization, when the reality is when a team is rebuilding the flaws are magnified.  Failures to trade, draft or develop correctly are the difference between a 5 year rebuild which I think a lot of people are hoping for, and a 10 year rebuild with multiple GMs which I honestly think we are a lot closer to right now than the former.

[drjohnnyfeva]

Personally, I don't really think a jury could be seated on whether Elias has addressed pitching development or not yet.  We clearly have some guys who might, but they haven't been tested.  I agree it was a total weak point for two or three decades.

But I'm certainly not ready to say this is a 10 year multiple GM rebuild we are in either.  That seems an excessive assessment.  We're not even into May and have only had a handful of games that were out of reach.  If we play at .475 or higher for a full season after last year, I feel like that is a great success and would expect a more competitive team in the next 2-3 years under the same GM.

Pitching development is an area of required proficiency, but I just don't think there's enough evidence from the changes that have been made to even measure their effectiveness at this point.

Perhaps with all of the other changes, we are developing capital to acquire arms while building the foundation to a long-term pipeline of arms a few years down the road???

[Sports Guy]

You never “need” to be bad.  That’s a fallacy.

However, I would say you have 2 years to strip down a team and start to build back up.  No “need” for it to be longer than that.

[sportsfan8703]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You never “need” to be bad.  That’s a fallacy.

However, I would say you have 2 years to strip down a team and start to build back up.  No “need” for it to be longer than that.

This might be true of every division except for the AL East. Nobody spends like the NYY and BOS does year in year out. Nobody develops like the Rays. That’s a huge hill to climb. 
 

However, Elias has been able to pick 1:1, 1:2, and soon to be 1:5. Also, he’s been able to pressure free clean house any chance he can with the roster. In Year 3, can he just manage the roster a little better?  He really needs another top 5 pick?  
 

162 games is a long time to suffer through when you’ve already bought into the tanking. It’s asking the fans too much. I’m willing to sacrifice Scroeler and Wells, to be able to put a complete 26 MLB roster out there each game. We have the depth to do that in 2021(year 3). 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This might be true of every division except for the AL East. Nobody spends like the NYY and BOS does year in year out. Nobody develops like the Rays. That’s a huge hill to climb. 
 

However, Elias has been able to pick 1:1, 1:2, and soon to be 1:5. Also, he’s been able to pressure free clean house any chance he can with the roster. In Year 3, can he just manage the roster a little better?  He really needs another top 5 pick?  
 

162 games is a long time to suffer through when you’ve already bought into the tanking. It’s asking the fans too much. I’m willing to sacrifice Scroeler and Wells, to be able to put a complete 26 MLB roster out there each game. We have the depth to do that in 2021(year 3). 

[Can_of_corn]

I also don't buy the But it's the AL East it's different argument.  Frobby has shown us, more than once, that the unbalanced schedule doesn't make that big a difference. 

Might it be a bit harder to win the division?  Sure, but to field a competitive team and make the playoffs?  Not really, not enough to justify an additional year or more of intentional non-competitiveness.