I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

The team that is most concerning in the division for me is Toronto. They have quite a bit more talent than Baltimore, and as of the other day they were only 2 games over .500. This team is miles away from what they are putting on the field, and they're just average with the record.

I’m much more scared of Tampa.

I actually think this deadline signals that Elias thinks contention is closer than it appears on the field.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

The team that is most concerning in the division for me is Toronto. They have quite a bit more talent than Baltimore, and as of the other day they were only 2 games over .500. This team is miles away from what they are putting on the field, and they're just average with the record.

They’ve underperformed their Pythagorean record by 7 games.   

[Pickles]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it's less likely to have a linear progression of 70, 80, 90 wins than it is to go 70, 67, 90.  Just look at the Orioles history.  They've gone from 76 to 91 to 109.  Then 54 to 87.  Then from 67 to 89.  Then 71 to 88.  Then 69 to 93.  Then 75 to 47.

Agreed.

I would like us to stop losing 105 games annually before I start looking for the dawn though.

[Pickles]

On 7/29/2021 at 6:30 PM, 7Mo said:

But that's the negotiation, right? Maybe both players say no. But you have to be looking at it, right? If you believe your baseball guys, your analytics, etc, you've gotta believe you have a very good projection on where they're headed, both performance wise and salary wise.

There has to be an appropriate discount for both risk and guarantee. But if you're going to believe in building blocks, who else would you choose?

There is risk no matter what you do. You gotta risk it to get the biscuit. But measured risk, of course.

I find these kinds of generalizations to be useless to be quite honest.

Give me some numbers and years and I can speak intelligently on what you're proposing.

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Well, with how the Orioles went through this trade deadline they clearly think that they are closer than 4-5 years.

Several people have made the same comment.

I see no justification for it.

You don't trade Mancini just to do it.  And he was the only one really that it makes sense to trade.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I find these kinds of generalizations to be useless to be quite honest.

Give me some numbers and years and I can speak intelligently on what you're proposing.

The generalization was your statement that they wouldn't sign anyone in the minors so it's a non-starter.

That was the point of my post. You should at least explore it.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Several people have made the same comment.

I see no justification for it.

You don't trade Mancini just to do it.  And he was the only one really that it makes sense to trade.

Depends if someone had a nice offer on the table for Mullins.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Depends if someone had a nice offer on the table for Mullins.

Depends is a diaper for old people.

Mullins has four years of team control remaining.  He hasn't even reached arbitration.  He's currently in the middle of a breakout season, which looks to be based on real improvement, and he's probably going to finish top 10 in the MVP race.

Wake me up when that becomes the kind of guy you trade.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

The generalization was your statement that they wouldn't sign anyone in the minors so it's a non-starter.

That was the point of my post. You should at least explore it.  

Eh.  That's not very compelling.

And again, if you want me to speak intelligently on what you're proposing, you have to actually propose something.

Other than a generalization that we should look to sign guys to favorable contract extensions.

It's the same logic as proposing that we should trade guys for more than their worth going forward.

Well, nobody argues differently with such generalizations; it's just about how realistic they are.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Depends is a diaper for old people.

Mullins has four years of team control remaining.  He hasn't even reached arbitration.  He's currently in the middle of a breakout season, which looks to be based on real improvement, and he's probably going to finish top 10 in the MVP race.

Wake me up when that becomes the kind of guy you trade.

He's got a 362 BABIP.

If he's for real he's soon to be out of the probable price range of the team.

If you could get a team to pay you have to look at it.

 

 

[maybenxtyr]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They’ve underperformed their Pythagorean record by 7 games.   

I know. They have way more talent than what their on the field product is showing.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's got a 362 BABIP.

If he's for real he's soon to be out of the probable price range of the team.

If you could get a team to pay you have to look at it.

 

 

He's a lefty hitter, with 95 percentile speed, and probably the best bunter in the game.  How low you think that BABIP is going to go?

He hasn't even reached arbitration.  If we can't afford to keep guys like through ARB-1 let's just fold the franchise and all find better things to do with our time.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Eh.  That's not very compelling.

And again, if you want me to speak intelligently on what you're proposing, you have to actually propose something.

Other than a generalization that we should look to sign guys to favorable contract extensions.

It's the same logic as proposing that we should trade guys for more than their worth going forward.

Well, nobody argues differently with such generalizations; it's just about how realistic they are.

My only point was that it is, indeed, possible to sign a guy presently in the minor leagues to such an extension.

You're dissatisfied with that. It seems like a reasonable point. Maybe consider signing an extension with Adley Rutschman or Grayson Rodriguez. That's not enough for you now so you require me to give you specific figures on what I believe would be proper so that you, as a message board poster can then criticize me, as a message board poster for my lack of knowledge as I sit here on my living room couch with 3 dogs drinking a cheap beer.

I can tell you this. The O's employ very smart individuals to decide those things. They have degrees from prestigious schools that have ivy on the walls. They sit in a room as a group with their spreadsheets and analysis and consider signings over the years that far eclipses my 10 second Google search. They no longer allow me in those rooms for fear that I will walk out with the engraved coffee cups and silverware.

I'll concede this point to you because clearly I was not fully prepared to participate in this discussion without figures for a 7 year contract proposal for you to consider, because less would not merit your attention. 

My point was they should explore an extension with Adley and Grayson. Silly me.

[Can_of_corn]

 

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He's a lefty hitter, with 95 percentile speed, and probably the best bunter in the game.  How low you think that BABIP is going to go?

He hasn't even reached arbitration.  If we can't afford to keep guys like through ARB-1 let's just fold the franchise and all find better things to do with our time.

I mean his career BABIP is 319.

The various projections on Fangraphs have him at 294-313.

So maybe less than 362?

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

My only point was that it is, indeed, possible to sign a guy presently in the minor leagues to such an extension.

You're dissatisfied with that. It seems like a reasonable point. Maybe consider signing an extension with Adley Rutschman or Grayson Rodriguez. That's not enough for you now so you require me to give you specific figures on what I believe would be proper so that you, as a message board poster can then criticize me, as a message board poster for my lack of knowledge as I sit here on my living room couch with 3 dogs drinking a cheap beer.

I can tell you this. The O's employ very smart individuals to decide those things. They have degrees from prestigious schools that have ivy on the walls. They sit in a room as a group with their spreadsheets and analysis and consider signings over the years that far eclipses my 10 second Google search. They no longer allow me in those rooms for fear that I will walk out with the engraved coffee cups and silverware.

I'll concede this point to you because clearly I was not fully prepared to participate in this discussion without figures for a 7 year contract proposal for you to consider, because less would not merit your attention. 

My point was they should explore an extension with Adley and Grayson. Silly me.

What kind of extension do you think they should look to sign D.L. Hall for?