2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[connja]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Taking a glorified DH with the first pick after your tanked so that you could get a high pick is f’ing stupid. 
 

You absolutely can not justify it.

Agree - had never even heard of Jacob Berry before reading this article.    The way this makes him sound he should still be available for our 2nd pick.

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Taking a glorified DH with the first pick after your tanked so that you could get a high pick is f’ing stupid. 
 

You absolutely can not justify it.

Yup.  If they "cheap out" on this one, I think many will be ticked off.   I could see going with Holliday or Lee, because they are position players who seem like they'll have some defensive ability.  Berry would be an awful pick.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

Yup.  If they "cheap out" on this one, I think many will be ticked off.   I could see going with Holliday or Lee, because they are position players who seem like they'll have some defensive ability.  Berry would be an awful pick.

Lee isn’t really defensible either.

Even Elias has said this draft has a lot of high level HS talent at the top of it.  You have to go after that level of talent.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lee isn’t really defensible either.

Even Elias has said this draft has a lot of high level HS talent at the top of it.  You have to go after that level of talent.

He clearly doesn’t have to based on his last draft. Lee profiles as a 3b/2b. Jones & Holiday have much greater upside (higher risk of course but strong family pedigrees). 

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Taking a glorified DH with the first pick after your tanked so that you could get a high pick is f’ing stupid. 
 

You absolutely can not justify it.

Many will, strap in. Get ready for the “we can’t judge Elias for many years” on this draft bs…

Who do you like for the top 5?

[joelala]

For me it’s Jones, Collier, Johnson, Holliday in that order. Anyone else and I’ll be upset. If it’s Berry, I will quite honestly question my fanhood. 

[joelala]

3 minutes ago, joelala said:

For me it’s Jones, Collier, Johnson, Holliday in that order. Anyone else and I’ll be upset. If it’s Berry, I will quite honestly question my fanhood. 

I should add Green in there too. 

[Sports Guy]

I’d be upset at Johnson too.

Jones is the pick but the only other defensible ones are Green and Holliday. 
 

But really, passing on Jones is the wrong move.

[MurphDogg]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be upset at Johnson too.

Jones is the pick but the only other defensible ones are Green and Holliday. 
 

But really, passing on Jones is the wrong move.

I don't see that much difference between Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green and Holliday. Given that the difference in slot value between picks 1 and 5 is over $2M, I would be shopping among those guys and see who is willing to cut the best deal and overpay a HS guy or a draft eligible sophomore that unexpectedly falls with the 33 and/or 42 picks.

Berry doesn't have a position and Lee doesn't have a high enough ceiling, given that he almost certainly isn't going to stick at short.

Green has the highest upside, Johnson has the best hit tool, Jones has the highest floor (among high schoolers) due to elite defense, Collier has proven that he can hit against guys older than him, and Holliday seems like a classic top 5 high school shortstop who may or may not stay at short but has few red flags.

[CharmCityHokie]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't see that much difference between Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green and Holliday. Given that the difference in slot value between picks 1 and 5 is over $2M, I would be shopping among those guys and see who is willing to cut the best deal and overpay a HS guy or a draft eligible sophomore that unexpectedly falls with the 33 and/or 42 picks.

Berry doesn't have a position and Lee doesn't have a high enough ceiling, given that he almost certainly isn't going to stick at short.

Green has the highest upside, Johnson has the best hit tool, Jones has the highest floor (among high schoolers) due to elite defense, Collier has proven that he can hit against guys older than him, and Holliday seems like a classic top 5 high school shortstop who may or may not stay at short but has few red flags.

I am going to have to disagree, and maybe its just the last few years of going underslot has caused me to become bitter about the strategy, but we have the largest draft budget in the league for this draft, I'd rather fire off all we got in the first few rounds and then pick up random college seniors from picks 5 back if that's what it takes. Paying 1-1 slot shouldn't blow up the rest of the draft budget, and the 1-1 pick is going to take slot offering because the chances of ever being 1-1 again if they don't sign is slim to none. Striking gold in the draft is hard enough, why make it harder by trying to be clever. And if we have to pay a draft-tax for going over, so be it. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be upset at Johnson too.

Jones is the pick but the only other defensible ones are Green and Holliday. 
 

But really, passing on Jones is the wrong move.

You're being silly.   I agree that Jones looks like he should be the pick.    We are all basing our opinions on national publications and websites.  If you base your opinion on that then any pick other than Jones is not defensible.   He is clearly the #1 guy.   There is no defense in not taking a clear #1 guy.   Why is Green defensible and Johnson is not?  Johnson is touted as the best college bat in the last 20 years by Callis and as the best bat by almost everyone and he's a good bet to be a solide defensive 2B.     Johnson could be a 300+ hitter with 25-30 homer power who plays an above average 2B.   That's not defensible?

[MurphDogg]

11 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I am going to have to disagree, and maybe its just the last few years of going underslot has caused me to become bitter about the strategy, but we have the largest draft budget in the league for this draft, I'd rather fire off all we got in the first few rounds and then pick up random college seniors from picks 5 back if that's what it takes. Paying 1-1 slot shouldn't blow up the rest of the draft budget, and the 1-1 pick is going to take slot offering because the chances of ever being 1-1 again if they don't sign is slim to none. Striking gold in the draft is hard enough, why make it harder by trying to be clever. And if we have to pay a draft-tax for going over, so be it. 

It just comes down to who the Orioles like the best, right player at the right price. Nobody knows for sure who is going to end up with the best career. Maybe Jones' bat never comes around and he ends up a great defensive centerfielder who bats 8th. Maybe Green's tools all click and he becomes a Hall of Famer.

If their opinion is similar to mine, then it makes sense to figure out the financial stuff and who will sign for less. Their opinion may be different and they may value one guy way more highly than the rest, but it makes no sense to tip their hand, so acting like they value them all equally to bring the price down may still be the smart play.

As an aside, I think it is stupid to ever pay slot on 1-1. It isn't like a player can decline it and hope to make more the following year. The 1-1 offer should never exceed the 1-2 slot in my opinion.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You're being silly.   I agree that Jones looks like he should be the pick.    We are all basing our opinions on national publications and websites.  If you base your opinion on that then any pick other than Jones is not defensible.   He is clearly the #1 guy.   There is no defense in not taking a clear #1 guy.   Why is Green defensible and Johnson is not?  Johnson is touted as the best college bat in the last 20 years by Callis and as the best bat by almost everyone and he's a good bet to be a solide defensive 2B.     Johnson could be a 300+ hitter with 25-30 homer power who plays an above average 2B.   That's not defensible?

Green is defensible because of the upside.

No, Johnson bothers me.  Austin Martin was regarded as having an elite hit tool too btw.

Position and lack of athleticism bother me about Johnson. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It just comes down to who the Orioles like the best, right player at the right price. Nobody knows for sure who is going to end up with the best career. Maybe Jones' bat never comes around and he ends up a great defensive centerfielder who bats 8th. Maybe Green's tools all click and he becomes a Hall of Famer.

If their opinion is similar to mine, then it makes sense to figure out the financial stuff and who will sign for less. Their opinion may be different and they may value one guy way more highly than the rest, but it makes no sense to tip their hand, so acting like they value them all equally to bring the price down may still be the smart play.

As an aside, I think it is stupid to ever pay slot on 1-1. It isn't like a player can decline it and hope to make more the following year. The 1-1 offer should never exceed the 1-2 slot in my opinion.

They absolutely will not have to pay slot at 1, no matter who the pick is.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Green is defensible because of the upside.

No, Johnson bothers me.  Austin Martin was regarded as having an elite hit tool too btw.

Position and lack of athleticism bother me about Johnson. 
 

 

Johnson doesn't have a lack of athleticism.   He's only got average to solid speed but I'm sure no one would consider him anything but athletic.

Sometimes consensus is wrong.   It was very wrong about Austin Martin and yet you go with consensus when it suits you.   Consensus says that Termarr Johnson is the best pure hitter in the draft (along with Brooks Lee by the way) with the power potential to go along with it.  But because there is something you don't like about him, you disregard consensus in this instance.