Eric Cross top 15 prospects

[jamalshw]

This guy seems to be aggressive with his ETAs for most players, but I would put Mayo in the Majors in 2023 as likely as Westburg being in the Majors in 2022 (as in, it could happen, but chances are quite low). 

Still, it's fun to think that by mid-year 2023 we could be looking at a very interesting team. 

[Tony-OH]

On 11/19/2021 at 2:54 PM, Frobby said:

That only makes sense.   

I’m not as optimistic on Mayo’s timetable as some.   He may start the year in HiA, but it could be low A.   He only has 125 PA at that level.   Even assuming the former, the odds that he goes from HiA to AA to AAA all in one season at age 20 aren’t that high.   If he gets a substantial number of at bats in AA by the time the year ends, I’d be very pleased with that.  
 

Henderson got just 157 PAs in Delmarva before getting promoted to Aberdeen and he showed less plate discipline. Obviously i will partially depend on how he looks next spring, but I would not be surprised if he starts 2021 in Aberdeen. Saying that, Elias likes to get guys off to a good start at lower levels so I could see him returning for a bit. Either way, I'd like to see him end up with some Double-A time next year. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Henderson got just 157 PAs in Delmarva before getting promoted to Aberdeen and he showed less plate discipline. Obviously i will partially depend on how he looks next spring, but I would not be surprised if he starts 2021 in Aberdeen. Saying that, Elias likes to get guys off to a good start at lower levels so I could see him returning for a bit. Either way, I'd like to see him end up with some Double-A time next year. 

I think he stands an excellent chance to get some AA time next year.  You’re right that he could start in HiA, I just don’t think we should assume it.   If not, and he gets off to a good start in Low A, I think he’ll be on the “Westburg Plan” and get moved pretty quickly.   I tend not to worry much in the offseason about how aggressively the team will move a player the next year; I worry more about the player playing well and creating a reason for a promotion.   

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he stands an excellent chance to get some AA time next year.  You’re right that he could start in HiA, I just don’t think we should assume it.   If not, and he gets off to a good start in Low A, I think he’ll be on the “Westburg Plan” and get moved pretty quickly.   I tend not to worry much in the offseason about how aggressively the team will move a player the next year; I worry more about the player playing well and creating a reason for a promotion.   

The one thing Elias showed last season is he's not afraid of in season promotion. Now whether that was because of the missed COVID year or the way he plans to move forward remains to be seen, but anyone who says he doesn't promote aggressively was not paying attention last year. 

He seemed to start guys off where he thought they would get off to a good start and then promoted them until they were challenged. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The one thing Elias showed last season is he's not afraid of in season promotion. Now whether that was because of the missed COVID year or the way he plans to move forward remains to be seen, but anyone who says he doesn't promote aggressively was not paying attention last year. 

He seemed to start guys off where he thought they would get off to a good start and then promoted them until they were challenged. 

I think that’s a good approach.   I do think he was more deliberate with Rutschman and Rodriguez than with the rest.

[jabba72]

On 11/19/2021 at 3:10 PM, dabirds said:

All the national guys love Adam Hall for some reason.  Was never able to figure out why??

It would be nice if Hall showed enough to be deserving of this ranking. But I think we all know he took a step back this year. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 11/19/2021 at 3:12 PM, Frobby said:

I don’t look so much at what he says, I just observe what he does.   So far he’s been very conservative on initial placements and, in most cases, slow on promotions.   He did make up for some initial placements with double promotions, though (Stowers, Westburg, Henderson).   Next spring could be interesting with the initial placements of Rom, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo and a few others.  

Put the team in contention at some point and things might get more aggressive though. 
 

I mean can we really read that much with the state of the organization when he inherited and the pandemic?  He had to get his analytics set up initially then Covid happened. I think he was pretty aggressive when he promoted an entire draft class at the same time to Delmarva. 

[Jammer7]

On 11/19/2021 at 2:29 PM, Can_of_corn said:

It will be interesting to see if the Elias ideal of dominating at every level holds up if the ML team is competitive and needs reinforcements.

My guess is as much as he's slow rolling guys now he'll fast-line others to try and maximize the talent on the roster.

Has Mike Elias really slow-rolled prospects? I thought last year was fairly aggressive for many prospects. Adley spent half a year in AA, and half in AAA. This was his first full professional season. Westburg, Stowers and Henderson played at three levels in 2021 in their first full pro seasons. I believe Diaz would have as well if he had not been injured. Many others played across two levels when they showed they were prepared for the move. DL Hall would have been in AAA if not injured. The list goes on.

And if you are talking about the 2019 season, and pitchers like Akin, Lowther, Kremer, etc…were they really slow-rolled in retrospect? Looks to me like they still weren’t ready in 2021. I know there was a general thought on this board that Elias was too slow to promote players. But after 2021, and having some retrospective info, I think it is not a valid observation. 

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Has Mike Elias really slow-rolled prospects? I thought last year was fairly aggressive for many prospects. Adley spent half a year in AA, and half in AAA. This was his first full professional season. Westburg, Stowers and Henderson played at three levels in 2021 in their first full pro seasons. I believe Diaz would have as well if he had not been injured. Many others played across two levels when they showed they were prepared for the move. DL Hall would have been in AAA if not injured. The list goes on.

And if you are talking about the 2019 season, and pitchers like Akin, Lowther, Kremer, etc…were they really slow-rolled in retrospect? Looks to me like they still weren’t ready in 2021. I know there was a general thought on this board that Elias was too slow to promote players. But after 2021, and having some retrospective info, I think it is not a valid observation. 

Elias proved last season that anyone who thinks he still slow rolled prospects just wasn't paying attention or had their mind made up. Too much was made of players being started at lower levels then some fans thought they should after missing a year due to COVID. However, it was clear that Elias prefers guys get off to good start at perhaps lower levels then quickly move them up, sometimes up two more levels.

I thought he was very aggressive with promoting everyone but Rutschman, who still ended up with a decent amount of AAA PAs. Could Rodriguez have been given a promotion late in the year to AAA to get a taste of the balls up there? Perhaps. But I think Elias preferred to have him get the first positive season down and start him at AAA next year.  

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias proved last season that anyone who thinks he still slow rolled prospects just wasn't paying attention or had their mind made up. Too much was made of players being started at lower levels then some fans thought they should after missing a year due to COVID. However, it was clear that Elias prefers guys get off to good start at perhaps lower levels then quickly move them up, sometimes up two more levels.

I thought he was very aggressive with promoting everyone but Rutschman, who still ended up with a decent amount of AAA PAs. Could Rodriguez have been given a promotion late in the year to AAA to get a taste of the balls up there? Perhaps. But I think Elias preferred to have him get the first positive season down and start him at AAA next year.  

I agree, completely. Pretty clear why things began the way they did. Confidence is essential for any player. Starting them conservatively makes complete sense, especially after COVID. I think some thought the alternate sight was more valuable than it actually was, and initial placements of Henderson and Rutschman surprised some.

There was no reason to push Rodriguez beyond AA in his 21 year old season after COVID. There is a balance between promotion for the purpose of challenging a prospect, skill development and physical development, including the build up of innings. Pitchers like Drew Rom, DL Hall, Jean Pinto, Carter Baumler, Raul Rangel and maybe even Brennan Hanifee should be interesting to follow this year to see their development and how they approach it. Young pitching with promise should be handled intelligently and individually.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Jammer7 said:

I agree, completely. Pretty clear why things began the way they did. Confidence is essential for any player. Starting them conservatively makes complete sense, especially after COVID. I think some thought the alternate sight was more valuable than it actually was, and initial placements of Henderson and Rutschman surprised some.

There was no reason to push Rodriguez beyond AA in his 21 year old season after COVID. There is a balance between promotion for the purpose of challenging a prospect, skill development and physical development, including the build up of innings. Pitchers like Drew Rom, DL Hall, Jean Pinto, Carter Baumler, Raul Rangel and maybe even Brennan Hanifee should be interesting to follow this year to see their development and how they approach it. Young pitching with promise should be handled intelligently and individually.

You don't think that the vast majority of professional athletes have an abundant supply of confidence in their abilities?

[Jammer7]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think that the vast majority of professional athletes have an abundant supply of confidence in their abilities?

I think it is more delicate a balance than you think it is. I think some young players can lose confidence quickly. If they have not accomplished anything yet, doubt can creep in when they struggle. There are things each player has to show at each level to move forward. The pressure to perform and move up is huge. They can press, try too hard, and things go awry. 

At some point, they can either compete or they cannot. But I think they have to reach a level of physical, mental and emotional maturity to find out what they are. College stars are different than a HS pick because of their experiences and accomplishments.

[higgybaby]

On 11/26/2021 at 9:18 PM, Jammer7 said:

I think it is more delicate a balance than you think it is. I think some young players can lose confidence quickly. If they have not accomplished anything yet, doubt can creep in when they struggle. There are things each player has to show at each level to move forward. The pressure to perform and move up is huge. They can press, try too hard, and things go awry. 

At some point, they can either compete or they cannot. But I think they have to reach a level of physical, mental and emotional maturity to find out what they are. College stars are different than a HS pick because of their experiences and accomplishments.

Imposter syndrome is real. 

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, higgybaby said:

Imposter syndrome is real. 

What does this mean?

[SpOkane]

Imposter syndrome basically means you don't feel like you belong.